Stocks opened higher on Thursday and made their intraday high about 30 minutes into the trading day. From there they basically tread water into the close and ended the day with modest gains. The Dow added 39-points, while all of the TSP funds closed in positive territory.
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The S-fund led the way and bonds finally broke out of their funk picking up a solid gain on the day.
The SPY (S&P500 / C-fund) closed for a second day above the 50-day EMA and is solidly within the ascending trading channel. There is a very small open gap down near 209 and there is some "weak" descending resistance (dashed line) around 211.50. Volume was quite light compared to recent action.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Wilshire 4500 (S-fund) has bounced off of the rising support line and looks fine, but there are some resistance lines overhead that will have to be dealt with and broken if it wants to advance.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Dow Transportation Index had a nice day gaining over 1% on Thursday, but the chart is still not looking very bullish. It will have to get back above the 20-day EMA and the old neckline of the head and shoulders pattern, the 50-day EMA is falling below the 200-day EMA, plus it's in an obvious downtrend. These are all bearish indications and the odds are against the Trannies.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The EFA (EAFE index / I-fund) moved higher on Thursday. It remains above the important 50-day EMA and it moved just above a weak resistance line off the recent highs. There are two big open gaps on the chart. One the bulls would like to see filled, and one is for the bears.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The dollar filled another small gap and now there's just one open gap now (red) that may warrant attention. The trend is down and that is a positive for the I-fund in comparison to the C and S-fund. It doesn't mean the I-fund will necessarily be up.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The AGG (bonds / F-fund) finally posted a solid rebound. We knew it would happen eventually, but that doesn't mean the downside is through. This is another chart that is broken and needs some repair before comfortably buying the F-fund. Getting back above the 200-day EMA would be a start.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the Sentiment Survey Results and the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Thanks for reading! Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
