1/04/13
Stocks opened lower yesterday but crawled back into positive territory by early afternoon. Some breaking news that the Fed was considering ending their easing programs sooner rather than later sobered investors who may have been looking for a reason to take some profits.
The 21-point decline in the Dow was a drop in the bucket compared to Wednesday's 308-point rally.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 150"]
[TR]
[TD]G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.0043%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.28%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.21%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.16%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-1.12%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]More returns[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The S-fund hit $25 a share yesterday and both the S and C funds have made new all time high closing prices this week.
This morning (Friday) we get the December jobs report. The Fed's new outlook on quantitative easing makes this report a little more important. They had said they would continue to pump money until the unemployment rate hit 6.5%. Now they seem to be backing off of that a bit, or at least looking for a reason to end the easing, and while that gave investors some concern, it could actually be a bullish sign since they probably wouldn't do that unless they saw improvements in the economy.
I am still focusing on the spring / summer chart comparison in the S&P 500. Should it continue, we may be nearing a short-term pullback. I would the last three day's action could be a bull flag forming, but the similar pattern in July turned out to be a peak leading to a pullback instead.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Dow Transportation Index, the market leader, has broken out to new highs after a long consolidation period. This long consolidation makes the upside target quite high, but the Transports have gained about 12% in less than 2 months so it may take a little break.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Fed's talk of considering changes to their monetary policy sent the dollar up sharply, which helped put some pressure on stocks. This chart, however, looks very bearish looking out into the intermediate to longer-term.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
There is a large bearish head and shoulders pattern (red) over a year wide, and there is a shorter-term bearish head and shoulders pattern (blue) that may be making a head test.
If you remember (because I keep talking about it) we had that huge rally in January of 1987, following the December 1986 capital gains selling, so if we are going to see something similar we don't want to get too bearish when we get overbought, but sentiment jumped this week and that could be reason for a little concern.
The Sentiment Survey System came in at 60% bulls, 30% bears for a 2 to 1 bulls to bears ratio. It was actually higher earlier in the day before the afternoon pullback.
The 2 to 1 ratio is a sell signal in a bull market so the system moves from 100% S to 100% G fund for next week.
Thanks for reading! Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Stocks opened lower yesterday but crawled back into positive territory by early afternoon. Some breaking news that the Fed was considering ending their easing programs sooner rather than later sobered investors who may have been looking for a reason to take some profits.
The 21-point decline in the Dow was a drop in the bucket compared to Wednesday's 308-point rally.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[TD="align: center"]Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 150"]
[TR]
[TD]G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.0043%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.28%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.21%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.16%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-1.12%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]More returns[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The S-fund hit $25 a share yesterday and both the S and C funds have made new all time high closing prices this week.
This morning (Friday) we get the December jobs report. The Fed's new outlook on quantitative easing makes this report a little more important. They had said they would continue to pump money until the unemployment rate hit 6.5%. Now they seem to be backing off of that a bit, or at least looking for a reason to end the easing, and while that gave investors some concern, it could actually be a bullish sign since they probably wouldn't do that unless they saw improvements in the economy.
I am still focusing on the spring / summer chart comparison in the S&P 500. Should it continue, we may be nearing a short-term pullback. I would the last three day's action could be a bull flag forming, but the similar pattern in July turned out to be a peak leading to a pullback instead.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Dow Transportation Index, the market leader, has broken out to new highs after a long consolidation period. This long consolidation makes the upside target quite high, but the Transports have gained about 12% in less than 2 months so it may take a little break.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Fed's talk of considering changes to their monetary policy sent the dollar up sharply, which helped put some pressure on stocks. This chart, however, looks very bearish looking out into the intermediate to longer-term.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
There is a large bearish head and shoulders pattern (red) over a year wide, and there is a shorter-term bearish head and shoulders pattern (blue) that may be making a head test.
If you remember (because I keep talking about it) we had that huge rally in January of 1987, following the December 1986 capital gains selling, so if we are going to see something similar we don't want to get too bearish when we get overbought, but sentiment jumped this week and that could be reason for a little concern.
The Sentiment Survey System came in at 60% bulls, 30% bears for a 2 to 1 bulls to bears ratio. It was actually higher earlier in the day before the afternoon pullback.
The 2 to 1 ratio is a sell signal in a bull market so the system moves from 100% S to 100% G fund for next week.
Thanks for reading! Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
