500SMA

[JTH]

Bear Market Warning.

Previous studies I've done had identified the 493SMA as the single most profitable Simple Moving Average throughout the entire history of the S&P 500.

The 493rd is at 1020.66, but for simplicity I round it out to the 500SMA, and right now we are testing those levels.

View attachment 9647

 

[JTH]

These charts show timeframes in which the S&P 500's price fell more than -20% below the 500 day moving average.

Of these past 6 timeframes, the average was -33%. In today's terms that gives us a projected price range of 2079-3326 with 2800 as the -33% average.

From the current Oct 2022 low that's another -5% to -40% drop with an average of -20%

 

[JTH]

Good morning

The Daily 500SMA roughly translates to a 2-year average.

Upper left, the transports have put in a strong run, just 5.28% short of a double top, with 3 closes above the 200SMA & 2 closes about the 500SMA.