imported post
tsptalk wrote:
I could be totally wrong, which I have been a lot lately, but the way to play this market lately has been to zig when it is zagging, and zag when it is zigging.
Right now it is zagging big time. I'm taking a chance and zigging out. Not a big move since I'm already 65% G anyway.
My instinct was to jump in trying not to miss this move up. My instincts have been off lately. Taking a step back, I decided to play contrarian and get out completely.
I was recently referred to this site by a friend, and have been passivily monitoring it for some time now.
I am a 57 year old male looking to retire at 62, so as yo can see I dont have alot of time left with the TSP or to get my needed nest egg in place.
I have been 95% invested inthe C, S and I all along since befor March 2000. My current balance today (appx 200K)is at or above what itwasinMarch 2000 when the bubble burst. I continued toinvest biweekly in the C,S, and Iduring the last 4 years. Yes its been nerve racking, and yes its hard to resist selling when the market is tanking, and it no less nerve racking to continue purchasing what you know is loosing money.
My only consolation at the time is to realize these are paper losses, and unless I sell they will remain paper losses and I have opportunity going forward to buy cheaper shares on the way down (buy low) and by doing so increase not so much my total $ amount balance
but the total number of shares held.
I caluclate that just this past 52 weeks alone my ROI in the C fund alone is at or above 25%. The S and I are right up there with it +/-. And I have not made one single change to my allocation during that time.
Time mitigates some but not all of the market risk, the more time the better, but being as conservative as some on this board would not have allowed me to make the statment just now re: the last 52 weeks.
Get in andstay in.Keep buying, preferbably on the way down and know when to sell (at highs if you must).This as I see it is the more difficult of the two because when things are good mans greedy nature kicks in and you decide to let it ride awhile longer then comes another March 2000.
It is proven that if you are not in the market on the
few keymarket days out of the year you can effect your ROI more than you will ever realize. What I have read here on this board reflects this e.g. "if I zig I shoud have zagged" or 'when i'm in I shouldn't have been and vice versa.
Bottom line in all of this is YOU CANNOT TIME ANYTHING IN THE MARKET, but you need to ensure you do not miss those few key days, just like TODAY in the SP500.