350Z's I Fund Thread - Sept. 07

[SCHAGAN]

IMO, if we get no cut or too much the markets will tank. If we get the quarter point, the markets will react moderately today, and if we get the +FV today it will make it that much more difficult for the I tomorrow.

How much upside is left, in that the quarter point is expected? There may not be all that much for the OSM's to work with, and much downside potential if things don't go just right...

I'm with the EbbTracker on this one, based on risk potential.

Out of curiousity, why do you think we would get +FV today? I really still don't have a handle on the I fund.

 

[camper65]

IMO, if we get no cut or too much the markets will tank. If we get the quarter point, the markets will react moderately today, and if we get the +FV today it will make it that much more difficult for the I tomorrow.

How much upside is left, in that the quarter point is expected? There may not be all that much for the OSM's to work with, and much downside potential if things don't go just right...

I'm with the EbbTracker on this one, based on risk potential.

If we get "too much" that will still give the i fund a positive bias don't you think?

 

[CorMaGa34]

ok, thanks Frixxxx, I really thought that it would indirectly help the I fund, as everything international could be connected one way or the other. This is the best way to learn, thanks for keeping this thread active 350Z!

 

[Jonathan]

Out of curiousity, why do you think we would get +FV today? I really still don't have a handle on the I fund.

As I understand it, a fv ("fair valuation") adjustment happens when either the Dow Jones Industrials or the MSCI EAFE index (EFA) changes significantly between 11:36 am EDT and the close of the US markets. In general, "significant" means more than 0.5% swing in either (or both) index.

The Fed speaks at 2:15pm. The benchmark for a fv is set at 11:36 AM. If the market indices increase significantly due to the Fed's statements or actions after that, then we could see an fv that has to be paid back tomorrow.

The decision on a fv is up to Barclay's, but I'd bet a really big swing in either index would lead to an fv today.

 

[SkyPilot]

If we get "too much" that will still give the i fund a positive bias don't you think?

Too much may cause the the markets to tank because of the feeling that the Fed is giving a signal that we really are in for a downturn. While it may cause some upward movement in the OSM's, it may not be enough to offset the next days USM's, as they will likely take some profits off the table as well. Seems to me to be too much risk of a next day reversal. However, I have not been great in my analysis so far this year. Just another Big Fat Opinion...

 

[SCHAGAN]

As I understand it, a fv ("fair valuation") adjustment happens when either the Dow Jones Industrials or the MSCI EAFE index (EFA) changes significantly between 11:36 am EDT and the close of the US markets. In general, "significant" means more than 0.5% swing in either (or both) index.

The Fed speaks at 2:15pm. The benchmark for a fv is set at 11:36 AM. If the market indices increase significantly due to the Fed's statements or actions after that, then we could see an fv that has to be paid back tomorrow.

The decision on a fv is up to Barclay's, but I'd bet a really big swing in either index would lead to an fv today.

Thanks for the clarification Jonathan.

 

[Ed_the_Fed]

I really hate days like this when the Fed controls what is going to happen to the market. I have jumped over to the I and will hold my breath come 2:15 today. Hoping for a big follow through in the Nikei tonight. Will probably bail to save havens tomorrow.

 

[Jonathan]

Any estimates for EAFE?

ChemEng has it at around +0.5%.

 

[CorMaGa34]

I increased the I to 50 and 50 to the F ... that way I am safe regardless!!! he he he talk about compromise... and let's make some money!!!

 

[SCHAGAN]

We may not all agree which direction to go today. However, it appears by looking at all the threads, we all are remaining very active. Thanks for the networking.

 

[Frixxxx]

I increased the I to 50 and 50 to the F ... that way I am safe regardless!!! he he he talk about compromise... and let's make some money!!!

Never seen the F/I split evenly, but who knows.

Just a note for everyone, I have a good twenty+ years of investing to go. I maybe a little more risky than most. Just a heads up!

 

[SCHAGAN]

Never seen the F/I split evenly, but who knows.

Just a note for everyone, I have a good twenty+ years of investing to go. I maybe a little more risky than most. Just a heads up!

I'm in that same boat...doesn't that seem like forever!

 

[Birchtree]

It's good to see the Fokker comments were edited.

 

[frokker]

It's good to see the Fokker comments were edited.

????

 

[SCHAGAN]

????

Birchtree was making a "Meet the Fokkers" reference to an earlier conversation that was in this thread that contained profanities.

 

[buda]

any estimates from the tsptracker?

 

[jellobrains]

Totally Random Untechnical Numerology Analysis Against October

I started paying attention to my investments (TSP and otherwise) about 1.5 years ago. And one thing read once that has really stuck to me was the "Sale in May and Stay Away" thing. Or the Halloween effect if you like. Anyway this is totally random, but with all this volatility going into October it makes me think of another more totally random and unsubstantiated idea, the unluckiness of October, and even more, the unluckiness of October in a year ending in 7, ie October 27 1997 mini-crash (Asian Flu) and of course Black Monday Oct 19 1987.

SO what about Oct???

In 1977 (read YYMMDD) DJIA Closing prices (of course red was a losing month in total, and green (ie 1947) a poistive month of October.
771003,851.96
771004,842
771005,837.32
771006,842.08
771007,840.35
771010,840.26
771011,832.29
771012,823.98
771013,818.17
771014,821.64
771017,820.34
771018,820.51
771019,812.2
771020,814.8
771021,808.3
771024,802.32
771025,801.54
771026,813.41
771027,818.61
771028,822.68
771031,818.35

In 1967?
671002,921
671003,924.47
671004,921.29
671005,927.13
671006,928.74
671009,933.31
671010,926.61
671011,920.25
671012,913.2
671013,918.17
671016,908.52
671017,904.36
671018,903.49
671019,903.72
671020,896.73
671023,894.65
671024,888.18
671025,886.73
671026,890.89
671027,888.18
671030,886.62
671031,879.74

In 1957
571001,460.8
571002,465.03
571003,465.82
571004,461.7
571007,452.42
571008,450.56
571009,451.4
571010,441.71
571011,441.16
571014,443.78
571015,447.9
571016,443.93
571017,436.87
571018,433.83
571021,423.06
571022,419.79
571023,437.13
571024,436.4
571025,435.15
571028,432.14
571029,435.76
571030,440.28
571031,441.04

1947
471001,178.1
471002,178.47
471003,179.53
471004,179.44
471006,180.08
471007,180.01
471008,178.78
471009,180.11
471010,180.44
471011,180.49
471014,182.73
471015,183.28
471016,183.54
471017,183.52
471018,184.25
471020,185.29
471021,185.09
471022,184.36
471023,184.5
471024,182.53
471025,182.73
471027,183.27
471028,183.21
471029,183.06
471030,181.32
471031,181.81

1937
371001,153.89
371002,154.08
371004,152.19
371005,144.08
371006,147.18
371007,146.59
371008,144.03
371009,143.93
371011,138.79
371013,138.2
371014,136.54
371015,135.48
371016,136.3
371018,125.73
371019,126.85
371020,134.56
371021,135.48
371022,132.26
371023,127.15
371025,134.43
371026,132.78
371027,132.26
371028,135.22
371029,138.48
371030,138.17

1927
271001,198.36
271003,199.78
271004,198.88
271005,199.22
271006,199.22
271007,197.5
271008,190.29
271010,189.03
271011,189.29
271013,190.45
271014,190.02
271015,190.18
271017,186.81
271018,187.32
271019,184.48
271020,183
271021,181.43
271022,179.78
271024,181.43
271025,185.31
271026,184.78
271027,183.96
271028,181.68
271029,180.32
271031,181.73

and 1917
171001,83.58
171002,83.49
171003,82.45
171004,80.62
171005,81.75
171006,81.35
171008,80.48
171009,79.26
171010,77.32
171011,77.83
171015,75.13
171016,77.08
171017,76.11
171018,77.85
171019,78.21
171020,79.8
171022,79.06
171023,78.5
171024,78.3
171025,77.68
171026,77.35
171027,78.91
171029,76.28
171030,75.53
171031,74.5

 

[SkyPilot]

Color blind, so no can see.... it's a red and green thing

 

[Frixxxx]

Color blind, so no can see.... it's a red and green thing

I'll "translate"

For years that end in "7", in Oct -- 1947 is the only year the DJ was up!

 

[jellobrains]

Ok 1907 too

AS if the other post wasn't irrtating enough:

1907
071001,67.95
071002,67.92
071003,67.94
071004,67.76
071005,67.31
071007,67.56
071008,67.05
071009,65.51
071010,65.5
071011,63.51
071012,62.34
071014,62.14
071015,62.09
071016,60.46
071017,60.53
071018,59.13
071019,58.65
071021,60.81
071022,59.11
071023,58.21
071024,58.18
071025,58.3
071026,58.31
071028,58.13
071029,57.23
071030,58.42
071031,57.7