350Z's 2007 I Fund Thread

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wht00ss said:
Well someone better light a fire under the Nikkei's butt because they so far are not holdin up their end of the bargain. We need a good 300-400 point pop. (In other words let's hope they are backing up for a good start.);)

white
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They might be a little reluctant ahead of the BOJ announcement tomorrow night. That's is when we'll see fireworks from the Nikkei. I don't want to get too far ahead of myself but I'm thinking about staying in the I fund for Friday. Options expiration is Friday and I think the shorts will get squeezed again when CPI comes in as expected(yields have been going up despite lack surprises in inflation).

As for the Nikkei, it hasn't been doing much and needs to catch up. I believe the BOJ will keep rates the same and the Nikkei will rally big on Friday. Of course, the USD/YEN might continue to rise but it's approaching resistance so they could sell on the news. The key tomorrow is the PPI, if it comes in as expected, I will stay in the I fund.
 
The_Technician said:
Thoughts and Questions running amuck........


1st time you got caught off guard...:notrust:
2nd time you didn't learn from the first time....:embarrest:
3rd time, are you a fool????:blink:

I fund is off limits in my book.....
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I think by the 2nd time that I had formed a bad habit.
 
350zCommTech said:
They might be a little reluctant ahead of the BOJ announcement tomorrow night. That's is when we'll see fireworks from the Nikkei. I don't want to get too far ahead of myself but I'm thinking about staying in the I fund for Friday. Options expiration is Friday and I think the shorts will get squeezed again when CPI comes in as expected(yields have been going up despite lack surprises in inflation).

As for the Nikkei, it hasn't been doing much and needs to catch up. I believe the BOJ will keep rates the same and the Nikkei will rally big on Friday. Of course, the USD/YEN might continue to rise but it's approaching resistance so they could sell on the news. The key tomorrow is the PPI, if it comes in as expected, I will stay in the I fund.
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Totally agree. I was trying a little I fund humor. I also think Friday could be a very good day if history repeats - the BOJ will definitely keep rates right where they are so it should be interesting.

white
 
I am holding the I fund, but before the day picks up full speed ahead, I want to congratulate many of you who play the I fund frequently, for having gone heavily the day before yesterday into the C and S funds. They did outstandingly well yesterday!
 
Greg said:
The I-fund may currently be overpriced by 1.1%. And I'm excluding today's +UfV.

In my spreadsheet, I compare the daily MSCI% with the I-fund %-change.

From the beginning-of-January thru March 1st, the I-fund increase out-priced the MSCI by 0.2%. Then the next 4 days March 02-07 had UfV each day, but they summed to a -0.4%. Combining the previous +0.2% and -0.4%, the I-fund was underpriced by 0.2 on 03/07cob and continued until 3/27 when there was a 0.123% UfV. Then the next 2 days had UfVs that canceled each other out. Therefore on 3/29cob, the difference between MSCI and I-fund was ~0.0%.

Since the end of April, the I-fund has slowly out priced the MSCI. On 5/21 there was a +0.13% UfV that was not following by an equalizing -UfV. On June 6th and since, this difference has totaled of 1.1%.
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2 things to consider:

1. The I-fund has beaten the EAFE by 0.02 basis points through March.

View attachment 1658

2. The trading cost for the I-fund have caused it to make money because Barclay's did such a bad job GUESSING. They guess conservatively which means that any frequent trader is going to get screwed more times than not.

View attachment 1659

I don't think these things add up to 1.1%.
 
PPI surprises to the upside. I think there's a good chance that CPI will do the same. Might be time to get out. And thanks to yesterdays' +FV, we're going to lose some money today despite the green in the OSM.:mad:
 
Early Estimate: Up .655% or 16 cents, plus 18 cents +FV correction equals -2 cents total.



James,

Please take care of estimates for the rest of the day. I'm going golfing.:)
 
EAFE really looks like it is trying to do good. Up .765% at 0937 EST. Maybe we'll get back yeserday's FV and a cent or two?
 
new rule for PLAYNG the I fund:

1. I will play the I fund only if The USM runs up reasonably HUGE BEFORE THE OSM CLOSES and our noon deadline so the chance of a further run up are limited so no +fv (all bets off if I get out that day since fv won't apply) AND IF THE USM RUNS UP HUGE by noon THEN TANKS AFTER THE OSM CLOSES I GET the fv FOR THE NEXT DAY if I am in because of the -fv the day the usm tanks. ;)

caveat: too many bad things to worry about with the I fund recently. Higher bond yields - higher dollar and worst of all Barclay's fv concern.

white

does this make sense at all :p
 
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wht00ss said:
new rule for PLAYNG the I fund:

1. I will play the I fund only if The USM runs up reasonably HUGE BEFORE THE OSM CLOSES and our noon deadline so the chance of a further run up are limited so no +fv AND IF THE USM RUNS UP HUGE by noon THEN TANKS AFTER THE OSM CLOSES I GET the fv FOR THE NEXT DAY because of the -fv the day the usm tanks. ;)

caveat: too many bad things to worry about with the I fund recently. Higher bond yields - higher dollar and worst of all Barclay's fv concern.

white

does this make sense at all :p
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do what you fear most and then you will overcome fear. I am staying 100% in the I Fund. I have a gut feeling it will explode to the upside in the next few weeks. This inflationary pressure will be tamed through words. The Fed knows that they cannot hike or they will commit a huge blunder. They need more solid real estate sales to do that. Also, businesses are starting to spend and take-over/merge, they will destroy that. US Dollar is being rewarded lately because of profit-takers. But, you watch and see the pullback on the US Dollar comeback>>
 
wht00ss said:
new rule for PLAYNG the I fund:

1. I will play the I fund only if The USM runs up reasonably HUGE BEFORE THE OSM CLOSES and our noon deadline so the chance of a further run up are limited so no +fv (all bets off if I get out that day since fv won't apply) AND IF THE USM RUNS UP HUGE by noon THEN TANKS AFTER THE OSM CLOSES I GET the fv FOR THE NEXT DAY if I am in because of the -fv the day the usm tanks. ;)

caveat: too many bad things to worry about with the I fund recently. Higher bond yields - higher dollar and worst of all Barclay's fv concern.

white

does this make sense at all :p
Click to expand...

12%ayear said:
do what you fear most and then you will overcome fear. I am staying 100% in the I Fund. I have a gut feeling it will explode to the upside in the next few weeks. This inflationary pressure will be tamed through words. The Fed knows that they cannot hike or they will commit a huge blunder. They need more solid real estate sales to do that. Also, businesses are starting to spend and take-over/merge, they will destroy that. US Dollar is being rewarded lately because of profit-takers. But, you watch and see the pullback on the US Dollar comeback>>
Click to expand...

No fear, just trying to play it as smart as possible. I've been predominantly in the I fund for the last 2 years. It just seems recently with the increased volatility that barclay's is playing more of a factor. In my opinion from a long term perspective all things being equal (I sound like an economist:embarrest:) the I fund at least for me is the place to be.

white
 
sugarandspice said:
If you are in the I fund Birchstyle then the FV shouldnt matter. If you never bail then you will always get it back.
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That's the only thing that bothers me while using the ebbtracker. It has a good track record, but jumping in and out so much raises the risk you'll be hit by one of those FV corrections while buying or selling.
 
sugarandspice said:
If you are in the I fund Birchstyle then the FV shouldnt matter. If you never bail then you will always get it back.
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12%ayear;99438 said:
100% right!!!
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Birchy's style not for me. I have been getting in and out of the I fund regularly over the years trying to miss the down days. Only recently have I been staying in longer to pick up the +fv on the next day because we have had so my fv adjustments.

Just what works for me :)

white
 
Wrngway said:
That's the only thing that bothers me while using the ebbtracker. It has a good track record, but jumping in and out so much raises the risk you'll be hit by one of those FV corrections while buying or selling.
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However, the risk is likely balanced both up and down. A greater consideration is how this system works in similar markets historicaly.

Seems to be doing well at this point...
 
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