350Z's 2007 I Fund Thread

[Aviator_Guy]

Asia always follows USM performance; at least it sure seems that way.

The US Futures are all in the green, so hopefully this will have an effect our Euro buds.

 

[Aspiration]

Japan and Australia are beginning to look less bad...

 

[12%ayear]

NIKKEI postive and early estimate down 2 cents

 

[Show-me]

News Release
Bank of England Maintains Bank Rate at 5.5%

7 June 2007​

The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee today voted to maintain the official Bank Rate paid on commercial bank reserves at 5.5%.
The minutes of the meeting will be published at 9.30am on Wednesday 20 June.
Note to Editors
The previous change in Bank Rate was an increase of 0.25 percentage points to 5.5% on 10 May 2007.

 

[12%ayear]

Lower open..higher close..looking for +fv today for sure IMO in the I FUND today.

 

[weatherweenie]

FTSE tanking, -0.40%.

 

[weatherweenie]

FTSE tanking, -0.40%.

Make that -0.63% now.

 

[12%ayear]

Make that -0.63% now.

make that .685 on the down side.....do now worry, its only 8:30 am est.!!!!!!!! make that .8665 now!! lol

 

[James48843]

Huge change in the dollar this morning too hurting "i"s value-

My early estimate now is I down 22 cents, as of 8:26 this morning.

 

[FundSurfer]

Fun with numbers....

The maximum possible gain so far this year is 54% (Picking the highest gaining TSP fund every day.) LAST YEAR Max ... 143%

The maximum loss is -46% (Picking the worst fund everyday.) LAST YEAR Loss ... -118%

12% and Griffin have been talking about it so I figured I'd post the numbers.

 

[weatherweenie]

Huge change in the dollar this morning too hurting "i"s value-

My early estimate now is I down 22 cents, as of 8:26 this morning.

Question becomes, to hold for a potential bounce Friday/Monday, or cut our losses?

 

[weatherweenie]

Going into Thursday, the DAX was down over 3% the previous two days. DAX is down another 1.30% today.

 

[12%ayear]

Question becomes, to hold for a potential bounce Friday/Monday, or cut our losses?

I have 3 ways of doing this. 1.Part of me wants to close shop until 2008. I met my goal. With the 2.40% payable left on the g Fund(30 weeksX 0.08%), I will be at 15% for the year. 2. Trade once in awhile3.Continue to do what I am doing.The first one is the stress-free way of doing it. I am leaning towards the second one.

 

[FundSurfer]

I was hoping these graphics would show up, but it only worked in my editor. Oh well.

 

[qibovin]

Fun with numbers....

yes numbers can be funny things and you can do some pretty funny things with numbers

The maximum loss is -46% (Picking the worst fund everyday.) LAST YEAR Loss ... -118%

How are you computing this? You can't just add the negative numbers. Given that you can't gamble with credit in your TSP it is IMPOSSIBLE to lose more than 100%, not only per year, but compounded over the life of the account.

To compute a maximum loss, the daily percent losses must be "compounded" by multiplying one (the initial premium) minus the reported daily loss for each day in the period of interest, and then subtract one from the final product to get the compound "gain," ie [(1+x) * (1+y) * (1+z)...]-1, where x,y,z...are the "gains" each day. Since no daily "gain" can be greater than -1, all values multiplied will be 0 or positive, so the product will be 0 or positive and after subtracting 1 it can be no worse than -100%. That would mean that on some particular day, every stock in the index in which you were invested was worth nothing (and you "sold" them anyway, essentially gave them away.) The likelihood of this happening, of course, is beyond the calculating capabilities of the Galactic Hitchhiker's Improbability Drive. But even theoretically you can't lose more than you've got, or 100%.

For illustration, suppose that for 5 days straight, you chose the worst performing fund which lost 20%. You will not have lost all your money (5 * 20% = 100%), but only 0.8*0.8*0.8*0.8*0.8 = 0.32768. So you would still have an impressive (after those kind of losses) balance of 33% of your starting principle.

Of course, gains are compounded like this as well, so I suspect that the max gain you have listed should be much, MUCH higher. Of course that is why it takes a 100% gain to "correct" a 50% loss.

 

[FundSurfer]

But even theoretically you can't lose more than you've got, or 100%.

For illustration, suppose that for 5 days straight, you chose the worst performing fund which lost 20%. You will not have lost all your money (5 * 20% = 100%), but only 0.8*0.8*0.8*0.8*0.8 = 0.32768. So you would still have an impressive (after those kind of losses) balance of 33% of your starting principle.

Of course, gains are compounded like this as well, so I suspect that the max gain you have listed should be much, MUCH higher. Of course that is why it takes a 100% gain to "correct" a 50% loss.

You know, as many times as I've explained this to other people you'd think I'd know better. You are of course correct. I just added the (max and min) daily percentages to get my totals. I'll recalculate..... later..... busy for a little while....

Thanks for catching that!

 

[James48843]

estimate- "I" fund now down .29 cents as of 11:25 am.

 

[qibovin]

estimate- "I" fund now down .29 cents as of 11:25 am.

but here come the dip buyers...

hopefully to the point of a +FV (not so much for the sake of my 10% in the I, but so that the rest that I have in the C & S recovers)
:hopeful

 

[qibovin]

Given:

Asia always follows USM performance; at least it sure seems that way.

and given that this may not happen until tomorrow or later:

Lower open..higher close..looking for +fv today for sure IMO in the I FUND today.

should we be buying I shares to "flip" to USM on the first signs of recovery. That way we capture the +FV that comes when USM pulls up, then jump over to USM avoiding the FV correction and riding the next upswing (S has been outperforming I this year)?

 

[McDuck]

Don't ya'll agree that if EFA closes much lower than it is now then there will be a -UfV today ?