350Z's 2007 I Fund Thread

[FundSurfer]

US dollar jump related to the Foiled Attack on US Army Base in NJ? If so then expect it to quickly retrace unles there is some sort of actual attack (unlikely due to heightened state of alert -- I think someone planning such would wait till clamor has died down before attempting anything). I'm thinking I'll move more into I-fund. There is a chance the Fed will say something dovish but I actually expect status quo for tommorrow.

 

[12%ayear]

US dollar jump related to the Foiled Attack on US Army Base in NJ? If so then expect it to quickly retrace unles there is some sort of actual attack (unlikely due to heightened state of alert -- I think someone planning such would wait till clamor has died down before attempting anything). I'm thinking I'll move more into I-fund. There is a chance the Fed will say something dovish but I actually expect status quo for tommorrow.

The Fed will not want to spook the markets tomorrow. They know they have to be dovish and calm. The unemployment and sluggish real estate sales are key to the Fed.

 

[FundSurfer]

They know they have to be dovish and calm.

You think they will change the language to indicate possible rate cut? I think the statement stays exactly the same which would be the calm thing to do. Keep inflation talk to a minimum.

 

[jayhawker]

11:40 EDT estimate: -.995% or -24 cents.

 

[ATCJeff]

You think they will change the language to indicate possible rate cut? I think the statement stays exactly the same which would be the calm thing to do. Keep inflation talk to a minimum.

I agree. No change in the Fed statement. They want to remain in a neutral position.

 

[mlk_man]

Question is, if they remain with the same statement or are even slightly more dovish and everybody is already thinking this, how will the same statement shock the market into moving that much higher?

If the fed believes what others do about us seeing $4 gas, this might suggest a rate increase wouldn't it?

Just thinking out loud. The system generated a sell signal so that's what I did. :blink:

 

[FundSurfer]

Fed's between a rock and a hard place.

If they raise rates, this would help the US dollar and would help against inflation that is certainly to rise because of energy prices. This will also slow down an economy that has slowed toward stall and impact a struggling housing market.

If they lower rate, this will help the economy/housing market but will pound the dollar (pun intended) and fuel inflation.

I guess this is why I think they keep status quo.

 

[12%ayear]

Fed's between a rock and a hard place.

If they raise rates, this would help the US dollar and would help against inflation that is certainly to rise because of energy prices. This will also slow down an economy that has slowed toward stall and impact a struggling housing market.

If they lower rate, this will help the economy/housing market but will pound the dollar (pun intended) and fuel inflation.

I guess this is why I think they keep status quo.

Agree to a certain level. The FED has to reassure the economy by taking a stand. It has not moved in awhile and has its hand tied. They need to bring back the consumer /employment/real estate first before worring about the Dollar. They need to be dovish for a few months. to see how it works into the big picture.

 

[Griffin]

They nabbed the culprits. I don't get why this would trigger such a strong reaction in the dollar index. These morons were going to attack a very active post which includes a federal prison and a state police barracks....these jokers would have gotten about two minutes of a target rich environment before they would have been chewed up by the green machine and others.

US dollar jump related to the Foiled Attack on US Army Base in NJ? If so then expect it to quickly retrace unles there is some sort of actual attack (unlikely due to heightened state of alert -- I think someone planning such would wait till clamor has died down before attempting anything). I'm thinking I'll move more into I-fund. There is a chance the Fed will say something dovish but I actually expect status quo for tommorrow.

 

[jayhawker]

EAFE final: -1.096% or -27 cents.

Maybe we'll get a +FV.

 

[350zCommTech]

EAFE final: -1.096% or -27 cents.

Maybe we'll get a +FV.

It's trying but not quite there yet.

Btw, thanks for doing the estimates.

 

[jayhawker]

It's trying but not quite there yet.

Btw, thanks for doing the estimates.

No prob!

You're moving into the I so I know you don't want the +FV. I moved 25% out so I'll take it if they give it to us.

Speaking of moving... the Kansas River is across the street and if it crests the levee (as it's threatening to do) I'll be out of here in a flash. :nuts:

 

[FundSurfer]

I don't get why this would trigger such a strong reaction in the dollar index.

Perception. This is about folks who jump on news. Anything which threatens stability moves the dollar. Remember the rumors of a Navy ship being fired upon in the Persian Gulf a couple months ago? Dollar jumped at the hint of a rumor. This particular item just had terrorist in the headlines. That's probably enough to move some speculators. That's why I expect it to retrace once more is known.

 

[sugarandspice]

No prob!

You're moving into the I so I know you don't want the +FV. I moved 25% out so I'll take it if they give it to us.

Speaking of moving... the Kansas River is across the street and if it crests the levee (as it's threatening to do) I'll be out of here in a flash. :nuts:

Looks like it might be a poker night for ya.

 

[jayhawker]

Looks like it might be a poker night for ya.

Could be! But, the casinos are on the Missouri River and it's rising also.

Or... I can always go home. :suspicious: My worksite is being threatened. "Neither snow nor rain nor gloom of night..." nothing in there about flooding. :worried:

 

[clester]

It's trying but not quite there yet.

Btw, thanks for doing the estimates.

Are we there yet?

 

[350zCommTech]

Are we there yet?

I don't think so. The S fund came very close but the C fund never got close and the dollar was up just a tad.

 

[12%ayear]

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/topheadline/Will_the_Federal_Reserve_Meeting_11786518685


Federal Reserve Meeting: USD/JPY vs EUR/USD The Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting scheduled for Wednesday is one of the financial market’s biggest event risks this week. Traders have taken the US dollar higher going into the meeting and the Dow Jones Industrial Average slightly lower, indicating that the market is favoring a more hawkish outcome. Interest rates are .....
not expected to be changed and will be left at 5.25 percent. The Federal Reserve has not changed interest rates since June 2006. Over the past 11 months, traders have been scrutinizing the FOMC statement for every word that has been newly included or excluded to try to time the next movement by the Fed. Unfortunately more than a year will pass before we actually see some action from the central bank. This attitude has been a major contributor to the EUR/USD’s move from 1.27 in June to its present level above 1.35. Since the beginning of the year, we have seen nothing but dollar weakness and we are finally seeing some sign of strength, but traders have been hesitant to take the dollar much higher before hearing what the Fed has to say. Which currency pair to trade in reaction to the FOMC statement will depend upon how the Fed sways. A cautious statement would probably lead to more pronounced dollar weakness against the Euro than the Japanese Yen because the market anticipates another rate hike from the European Central Bank in June. Shorting USD/JPY would still require paying hefty interest. An unchanged statement or one that downplays the recent deterioration in growth to focus on the upside inflation risks will probably lead to more dollar strength against the Yen than the Euro due to the more beneficial carry http://www.dailyfx.com/story/topheadline/Will_the_Federal_Reserve_Meeting_1178651868569.html

 

[12%ayear]

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/topheadline/Will_the_Federal_Reserve_Meeting_11786518685

What Will Team Bernanke Do?

The last FOMC statement contained a number of interesting changes. The Fed acknowledged that the economy was beginning to weaken going into the meeting but stressed that their “predominant” concern was that inflation would fail to moderate. In the box below, we have highlighted the major changes to the last statement. Since then, inflation has increased due to the weakness of the dollar and rising gasoline prices. Therefore even though we think that growth data warrants more cautionary comments, the Fed will most likely wait for a few more weeks of data to ensure that the deterioration in growth is continuing before they drastically change the tune of their statement. Their next monetary policy meeting is in late June. The tug of war between inflation and growth at the moment gives the Fed little room to alter the FOMC statement. Team Bernanke has often put inflation ahead of growth and for the time being, we do not expect this to change. The futures curve is not pricing in a rate cut until the end of the year. Keeping interest rates steady and the statement unchanged will be taken positively by the foreign exchange market, which his could lead to a resumption of the uptrend in USD/JPY. A surprisingly neutral or dovish statement on the other hand will send the EUR/USD back towards its all-time highs.http://www.dailyfx.com/story/topheadline/Will_the_Federal_Reserve_Meeting_1178651868569.html

 

[Griffin]

Allllllrighty then . I certainly hope you are correct about the retracement.

Perception. This is about folks who jump on news. Anything which threatens stability moves the dollar. Remember the rumors of a Navy ship being fired upon in the Persian Gulf a couple months ago? Dollar jumped at the hint of a rumor. This particular item just had terrorist in the headlines. That's probably enough to move some speculators. That's why I expect it to retrace once more is known.