350Z's 2007 I Fund Thread

[12%ayear]

Global slowdown?

The switch is on now!!! Markets new fear are now Recession and not Inflation. Weak job number will spook the markets telling the markets that there is indeed a slowdown. This is worse than inflation,because with inflation, the Fed can fight it. Recession, you cannot. Buckle your seatbelt and postion yourself. I am sidelined 100% G, which paid the penny yesterday. Are we heading for a global slowdown? Time will tell http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070309/ipsos_consumer_confidence.html?.v=4

 

[fedgolfer]

I'm confused, nonfarm payrolls came in at 97k (under expectations)... yet the EZ is bouncing to the upside?

 

[weatherweenie]

I'm confused, nonfarm payrolls came in at 97k (under expectations)... yet the EZ is bouncing to the upside?

US futures have popped up after the release. I guess EZ is bouncing in response.

 

[fedgolfer]

while these numbers aren't bad, they're not good either?

 

[weatherweenie]

while these numbers aren't bad, they're not good either?

Numbers lately haven't been that, but market wants to run.

 

[Show-me]

I'm confused, nonfarm payrolls came in at 97k (under expectations)... yet the EZ is bouncing to the upside?

Not to hot and not to cold. The afternoon will tell all. Also less jobs less payroll to pay out. Biggest decline was construction jobs due to the weather. Biggest gain government jobs. :nuts:

 

[Show-me]

Also, Dec and Jan numbers were revised up.

 

[airlift]

With such favorable economic numbers, rising futures, and a market that wants to keep running up, which might be the better choice for Monday, the I or the S fund? We have to consider the FV factor of course!

 

[Show-me]

On a bitter note (for companies), hourly earning went up.

 

[airlift]

On Bloomberg TV, a positive interpretation by a market analyst is that hourly earnings only show a robust and growing economy, when combined with good econ. numbers that presage a soft landing.

On a bitter note (for companies), hourly earning went up.

 

[Birchtree]

Hourly earnings will balance off the subprime market slide - helps the candidate pay his loan. A Goldilocks economy will help the EZ continue to grow - we are now fully globalized.

 

[airlift]

I don't know the right answer, but an analysis here could help make a choice. Apparently, in a strong runup or downturn, the FV seems to be delayed or forestalled for the next day. Is it correct to say that there was no FV applied yesterday? Well, assuming that Europe and Asia find inspiration to continue rising based on good economic numbers from the U.S., then the rally could continue further. Please take a look at Tom's post in Ebbnflow's account talk thread. Interesting to read Tom's conclusion to the effect that:

"That wasn't right. I did it again and now actually come up with this rally being 38.2% retracement (to Thursday's high) of the drop. That's an important retracement figure."

Tom was refering to Fibonacci retracement theory regarding the S&P 500 (as per his daily commentary). Assuming again, that Ebbnflow keeps making inroads, the next Fibonacci retracement level would be 50% retracement in the S&P500, whcich would be met at 1418. This is risky trading, but we are adults, and a discussion should be forthcoming. Good luck to all!

​

 

[350zCommTech]

Early estimate : down .016% or 1 cent.


I've asked Gilligan to start posting estimates. I'm going to OKC next week.

 

[350zCommTech]

Up .038 or no gain.

Where's Gilligan?

 

[350zCommTech]

I hope that Gilligan will be able to provide the estimates for us next week. You guys do us a great service by providing these estimates, and it is sincerely appreciated. Enjoy your trip to OKC!

Thanks Paladin,

The short trips are ok but I really hate the long ones.

 

[jayhawker]

I hope that Gilligan will be able to provide the estimates for us next week. You guys do us a great service by providing these estimates, and it is sincerely appreciated. Enjoy your trip to OKC!

I'd be happy to post the estimates next week if Gilligan is unavailable.

 

[FundSurfer]

Looks pretty close to even to down 1 cent to me right now. Looks like 350Z will be right on the money. EFA is trending down but it would take quite a move for an -FV at this point.

 

[weatherweenie]

eafe +0.114%

 

[FundSurfer]

Higher than I thought.

 

[Gilligan]

Early estimate : down .016% or 1 cent.


I've asked Gilligan to start posting estimates. I'm going to OKC next week.

I will be away from the computer on Monday and Tuesday, I will try to post some estimates for the rest of the week.