350Z's 2007 I Fund Thread

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Everybody, take a breath.

If you are in stocks now, "C","S", or "I", then there isn't anything you can do about it anyway until COB today.

If you are out of stocks, it just means stocks are getting that much cheaper.

Either way- .... Don't worry, be happy.
 
ChemEng said:
I hate to bump myself, but can anyone help me here?
Click to expand...

On Friday we got a negative twentysomething FV (which was about -.90%), Since the market has extended the downward trend that generated the FV, today's price will be adjusted accordingly, so

Scenario 1) the market stabalize by noon today for a total EAFE loss of (estimate) -2.4% then the I-fund will lose -1.5% (2.4% - the extra .90% it lost on Friday)

Scenario 2) the market drops further after noon (lets assume at noon it was still at -2.4% but the US momentum drags it down by an additional .70%) then the same thing occurs except you get an additional FV, you get a lose of 2.2% (2.4% for today's action before noon, get back .90% from Friday but then lose another .70% for today's post noon action). This would leave .70% the I-fund would have to give back tomorrow (making today a good day to buy if the lose is not further extended tomorrow).

Scenario 3) same scenario as scenario 2 except the market recovers after noon for .70% worth of FV then you would see a net drop of - .80% today (-2.4% for the pre noon drop, get back .90% worth of Friday's FV plus an additional .70% worth of FV). This would be the best scenario to exit the I-Fund, if you think tomorrow will be severly red. If you were buying into the I-fund in this scenario, you would pay back the positive .80% worth of FV tomorrow.

Given the sharp intraday V's we have seen over the past couple of weeks, I can see scenario 3 as a possible scenario although I would not consider positive afternoon action as a reversal of the trend.

Pick any index fund and draw a line from lows in Nov of 2005 across the bottom of the lows of June 2006 and extend that out to the present. I see this as the most likely area of support. I think gives you a reasonable indicator of where each fund stands. Personally, I will not bank on this support level holding until I see a retest of the low but it should at least serve to break the freefall.
 
Griffin,
Thank you for the detailed analysis you have given us. I am certain that everyone will be happy with this. Good luck to all!

Griffin said:
On Friday we got a negative twentysomething FV (which was about -.90%), Since the market has extended the downward trend that generated the FV, today's price will be adjusted accordingly, so

Scenario 1) the market stabalize by noon today for a total EAFE loss of (estimate) -2.4% then the I-fund will lose -1.5% (2.4% - the extra .90% it lost on Friday)

Scenario 2) the market drops further after noon (lets assume at noon it was still at -2.4% but the US momentum drags it down by an additional .70%) then the same thing occurs except you get an additional FV, you get a lose of 2.2% (2.4% for today's action before noon, get back .90% from Friday but then lose another .70% for today's post noon action). This would leave .70% the I-fund would have to give back tomorrow (making today a good day to buy if the lose is not further extended tomorrow).

Scenario 3) same scenario as scenario 2 except the market recovers after noon for .70% worth of FV then you would see a net drop of - .80% today (-2.4% for the pre noon drop, get back .90% worth of Friday's FV plus an additional .70% worth of FV). This would be the best scenario to exit the I-Fund, if you think tomorrow will be severly red. If you were buying into the I-fund in this scenario, you would pay back the positive .80% worth of FV tomorrow.

Given the sharp intraday V's we have seen over the past couple of weeks, I can see scenario 3 as a possible scenario although I would not consider positive afternoon action as a reversal of the trend.

Pick any index fund and draw a line from lows in Nov of 2005 across the bottom of the lows of June 2006 and extend that out to the present. I see this as the most likely area of support. I think gives you a reasonable indicator of where each fund stands. Personally, I will not bank on this support level holding until I see a retest of the low but it should at least serve to break the freefall.
Click to expand...
 
sponsor said:
Ebb,
Are we still on track today? 350, can you please give us a better idea of how the FV or a coorection of last Friday's -FV would most likely be handled by Barclay? Thank you!
Click to expand...

Griffin said:
Scenario 2) the market drops further after noon (lets assume at noon it was still at -2.4% but the US momentum drags it down by an additional .70%) then the same thing occurs except you get an additional FV, you get a lose of 2.2% (2.4% for today's action before noon, get back .90% from Friday but then lose another .70% for today's post noon action). This would leave .70% the I-fund would have to give back tomorrow (making today a good day to buy if the lose is not further extended tomorrow).
Click to expand...

Good job Griffin.

Sponsor, ChemEng,

I pick scenario #2, but I see more downside tonight.
 
Griffin said:
On Friday we got a negative twentysomething FV (which was about -.90%), Since the market has extended the downward trend that generated the FV, today's price will be adjusted accordingly, so

Scenario 1) the market stabalize by noon today for a total EAFE loss of (estimate) -2.4% then the I-fund will lose -1.5% (2.4% - the extra .90% it lost on Friday)

Scenario 2) the market drops further after noon (lets assume at noon it was still at -2.4% but the US momentum drags it down by an additional .70%) then the same thing occurs except you get an additional FV, you get a lose of 2.2% (2.4% for today's action before noon, get back .90% from Friday but then lose another .70% for today's post noon action). This would leave .70% the I-fund would have to give back tomorrow (making today a good day to buy if the lose is not further extended tomorrow).

Scenario 3) same scenario as scenario 2 except the market recovers after noon for .70% worth of FV then you would see a net drop of - .80% today (-2.4% for the pre noon drop, get back .90% worth of Friday's FV plus an additional .70% worth of FV). This would be the best scenario to exit the I-Fund, if you think tomorrow will be severly red. If you were buying into the I-fund in this scenario, you would pay back the positive .80% worth of FV tomorrow.

Given the sharp intraday V's we have seen over the past couple of weeks, I can see scenario 3 as a possible scenario although I would not consider positive afternoon action as a reversal of the trend.

Pick any index fund and draw a line from lows in Nov of 2005 across the bottom of the lows of June 2006 and extend that out to the present. I see this as the most likely area of support. I think gives you a reasonable indicator of where each fund stands. Personally, I will not bank on this support level holding until I see a retest of the low but it should at least serve to break the freefall.
Click to expand...


Griffin,

Thanks for your opinion.
 
sponsor said:
How are you playing this 350? Thanks
Click to expand...

At the moment, I'm thinking about staying in F. I notice the USD/YEN spiked up a little bit and it gave the markets a small rally. I think it's a head fake. The spike in USD/YEN came despite a significant drop in the non-manufacturing ISM, from 59 to 54.3. I need to find out what economic news is coming out tomorrow.
 
Birchtree said:
Tomorrow is 4th qtr rev productivity. Unit labor costs, and factory orders.
Click to expand...


Here are a few more.




There are several economic reports of note and some significant corporate earnings reports scheduled for release this week.

Economic reports for the week include:

Mon. - ISM Non-Manufacturing

Tues. - Final 4Q Non-farm Productivity, Final 4Q Unit Labor Costs, Pending Home Sales, Factory Orders, weekly retail sales

Wed. - MBA Mortgage Applications, ADP Employment Change, Fed’s Beige Book, Consumer Credit

Thur. - Initial Jobless Claims

Fri. - Trade Balance, Change in Non-farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings, Wholesale Inventories

Some of the more noteworthy companies that release quarterly earnings this week are:

Mon. - ADC Telecom(ADCT), Mirant(MIR)

Tues. - 1-800 Contacts(CTAC), Brown-Forman(BF/B), Chico’s FAS(CHS), Conseco(CNO), Copart(CPRT), John Wiley & Sons(JW/A), Payless Shoesource(PSS)

Wed. - American Eagle Outfitters(AEOS), BJ’s Wholesale Club(BJ), Coldwater Creek(CWTR), Dick’s Sporting Goods(DKS), Foot Locker(FL), Genesco(GCO), Men’s Wearhouse(MW), Michaels Stores(MW), Saks Inc.(SKS), Talbots(TLB), Westwood One(WON)

Thur. - Anworth Mortgage(ANH), Cooper Cos(COO), Costco Wholesale(COST), Georgia Gulf(GGC), Hovnanian Enterprises, Korn/Ferry(KFY), National Semi(NSM), Neiman Marcus(NMG/A), Tech Data(TECD), Veritas DGC(VTS)

Fri. - Big Lots(BLI), Hibbett Sports(HIBB), Quiksilver(ZQK), Stage Stores(SSI), Urban Outfitters(URBN)

Other events that have market-moving potential this week include:

Mon. - Morgan Stanley Tech Conference, Merrill Lynch Global Auto Conference, Bear Stearns Media Conference, Citigroup Global Property Conference, (XLNX) analyst meeting, the Fed’s Poole speaking, the Fed’s Warsh speaking

Tue. - Thomas Weisel Internet & Digital Media Conference, Citigroup Global Property Conference, Raymond James Institutional Investors Conference, Morgan Stanley Tech Conference, Citigroup Global Industrial Conference, Bear Stearns Media Conference, (JPM) analyst meeting, the Fed’s Plosser speaking

Wed. - Raymond James Institutional Investors Conference, Morgan Stanley Tech Conference, CIBC Retail Conference, Bear Stearns Media Conference, Citigroup Global Property Conference, Citigroup Global Industrial Conference, Thomas Weisel Internet and Digital Media Conference, the Fed’s Moskow speaking

Thur. - Morgan Stanley Tech Conference, Pacific Crest On-Demand Conference, monthly retail sales reports

Fri. - None of note


BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week mixed as mostly positive earnings reports, constructive Fed commentary, buyout speculation, lower energy prices, short-covering and bargain-hunting offset lingering sub-prime mortgage and emerging market concerns. My trading indicators are giving mostly bearish signals and the Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

http://hedgefundmgr.blogspot.com/
 
What's so important about "carry trade"? Does this matter to us?
----------------------------------

"The yen rules; and Japan's authorities wish it wasn't as the yen carry trade is being unwound in the most violent manner everywhere around the trading world this morning," said Dennis Gartman of The Gartman Letter. "This is already a very, very ugly day and we fear it is only going to get worse. Put your tray tables and seats into a locked and upright position and prepare for a very, very bumpy ride."
 
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