350Z's 2007 I Fund Thread

[SkyPilot]

Should be able to score a sweet deal on one of those foreclosures... good luck!

Ironically, my wife and I are in the market for our first home, or townhome as the case may be.

We were pre-qualified at our credit union for a loan about $60k more than I think we can afford. Even with a quieting of the market here, prices are still high. A decent townhome here (Fairfax County, VA) is $300k minimum and I don't want to go over $330k.

Being in the market I've noticed a large amount of foreclosures. Way more than I would've expected.

People weren't thinking or budgeting...Pure and simple.

 

[12%ayear]

Just in very bad news.. Countrywide Hit by Credit Market Woes

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB118670096225293580.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
Countrywide Hit by Credit Market Woes

By JAMES R. HAGERTY
August 9, 2007 7:16 p.m.

Countrywide Financial Corp. faces "unprecedented disruptions" in debt and mortgage-finance markets that could hurt earnings and the company's financial condition, the Calabasas, Calif., lender said in a regulatory filing.
The company, the largest U.S. home mortgage lender in terms of loan volume, said reduced demand from investors is prompting it to retain more of its loans rather than selling them. The company also has been shoring up its finances. "While we believe we have adequate funding liquidity," it said in a quarterly filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, "the situation is rapidly evolving and the impact on the company is unknown."
Payments were at least 30 days late on about 20% of "nonprime" mortgages serviced by Countrywide as of June 30, up from 14% a year earlier. Nonprime includes loans to people with weak credit records and high debt in relation to their income, as well as to people who don't document their income or assets. On prime home equity loans, the delinquency rate was 3.7%, up from 1.5% a year before. For all loans, the rate was 5%, up from 3.9%.
In a sign of the growing difficulty in selling loans, Countrywide said that it transferred $1 billion of nonprime mortgages from its "held for sale" category to "held for investment" in the first half. Countrywide marked the value of those loans down to $800 million. It also decided to retain as investments, rather than sell, $700 million of prime home equity loans, marking them down to $600 million. Countrywide has said many of those home equity loans were second-lien mortgages used by people who put little or no money down in buying a house

 

[McDuck]

There should be an UfV of -0.83% today. With today's MSCI of -1.43, the I-fund price should be down 2.26% today.

It was down 2.79%. That's a huge UfV of 1.36%

 

[Griffin]

It was down 2.79%. That's a huge UfV of 1.36%

If the FV accurately predicts tomorrow, that would take the EU most of the way down to the point of a retest. If you were watching CNBC tonight, you would think that western civilization was going to collapse tomorrow. The fear machine is at maximum output and I fully expect to be staring at triple red digits tomorrow morning. I'll hold tomorrow regardless of what happens. Now if we slip lower on Monday then I will consider this the next leg down. The bears need to score big tomorrow and on Monday, otherwise, it's game over for the bears and the place to be is Techs. IMHO, The perfect buy for the I-fund was today - if you did, you got rock bottom pricing - my hats off to you all.

 

[ATCJeff]

If the FV accurately predicts tomorrow, that would take the EU most of the way down to the point of a retest. If you were watching CNBC tonight, you would think that western civilization was going to collapse tomorrow. The fear machine is at maximum output and I fully expect to be staring at triple red digits tomorrow morning. I'll hold tomorrow regardless of what happens. Now if we slip lower on Monday then I will consider this the next leg down. The bears need to score big tomorrow and on Monday, otherwise, it's game over for the bears and the place to be is Techs. IMHO, The perfect buy for the I-fund was today - if you did, you got rock bottom pricing - my hats off to you all.

I hope your right. It's been very tough since July 6th!

 

[nnuut]

Re: Rhttp://online.barrons.com/article/SB118652175657790871.html?mod=googlenews_barro

Amen brother, these people make me laugh with these huge homes. The cars are never in the driveway. They are always at work to pay for them. 4-5thousand a month mortgages. Keep them. Remember a queen size bed is a queen size bed does not matter if it is in a condo or a mansion. The heating costs are higher along with everything else. I rather have a nice bank account and no debts. Screw impressing people. I rather drive a used car that looks nice and is safe then take on a huge car loan. I pay cash for everything, no debt, my Fico score is over 800. I refuse any credit cards, but I keep one just in case with no balance.

Yer right THEY are CRAZY, big house no money. It just doesn't make good walkin' around sense to me. My house will be PAYED OFF in January, Value about $160K, plenty enough for me.
PAYED OFF IS GOOD!!!!!!
View attachment 1871

 

[airlift]

Griffin,
This is excellent analysis. Thanks!

If the FV accurately predicts tomorrow, that would take the EU most of the way down to the point of a retest. If you were watching CNBC tonight, you would think that western civilization was going to collapse tomorrow. The fear machine is at maximum output and I fully expect to be staring at triple red digits tomorrow morning. I'll hold tomorrow regardless of what happens. Now if we slip lower on Monday then I will consider this the next leg down. The bears need to score big tomorrow and on Monday, otherwise, it's game over for the bears and the place to be is Techs. IMHO, The perfect buy for the I-fund was today - if you did, you got rock bottom pricing - my hats off to you all.

 

[buda]

IMHO, The perfect buy for the I-fund was today - if you did, you got rock bottom pricing

Griff,

You are rock you are at 17+% for the year? I just got lucky and grabbed on and follwed ebby on this call. Whew.


My hats off to you.


buda

 

[Griffin]

Griff,

You are rock you are at 17+% for the year? I just got lucky and grabbed on and follwed ebby on this call. Whew.


My hats off to you.


buda

I was yesterday, now I'm back to 14%.....I expect to back to 17% by next Wednesday

 

[atcbullet]

I don't see how being in the I fund tomorrow is a good thing. Europe is going to tank more than it did today and the dollar is going to be up because of action of ecb. I would think buying tomorrow would be the ideal entry point. fwiw.

 

[Robo5555]

OSM Japan is down big so far. We expected that. I'm on the lili pad for Friday.....too risky.....lets see what our markets do b4 noon.

 

[350zCommTech]

the dollar is going to be up because of action of ecb. I would think buying tomorrow would be the ideal entry point. fwiw.

Wrong. It's the carry trade unwinding.

 

[Robo5555]

350 are we still at the bar (lili pad) or you left? I am here drinking my beer...my treat...want one??

 

[350zCommTech]

We got news of more hedge funds halting redemptions, which means they're about to blow-up. This is causing the Yen carry trade to unwind. IMHO, we are going to see more of this.

ECB injecting 130M into their banks?

The president was not expected to talk today. Why is he talking?

Perhaps things are really that bad?

IMHO, the president will not hint at a rescue. What's there to rescue when GDP was at 3.4% and jobs are plentiful, per their data. We will probably see more selling after he gets done talking.

3:00 est. will be interesting. More panic selling maybe?? -FV??

This morning I wrote these statements. After reading some comments around here, I get the feeling that most people here don't understand how serious the problem is.

Another hedge fund in trouble. Goldman Sachs is closing a hedge fund that oversees more than $700 million after recent losses.

Tonight, BOJ injecting 1 trillion Yen. Folks when CBs are injecting tons of money at the same time, they think the problem is very very serious. This is real.

The Yen carry trades continues to unwind.

It's understandable to be a cheerleader while you're in the market but don't let your bias get in the way.

And one more thing, CFC, Countrywide Financial, is in trouble. They employ 60,000 people. There are big bets against CFC between now and OPTEXP(Friday). I wouldn't want to be around when they hold a conference call. Remember Bear Sterns?

 

[350zCommTech]

350 are we still at the bar (lili pad) or you left? I am here drinking my beer...my treat...want one??

Yes, I'm still in the lili pad. I'll take an MGD and a margarita please.

 

[atcbullet]

Z did you mean wrong about entry point or the dollar?

 

[350zCommTech]

Z did you mean wrong about entry point or the dollar?

Sorry, I meant the dollar.

 

[GGal]

I think you better wake the gang.....

GGAL

 

[buda]

osm's getting hammered. But that was expected. I went all "I" for Friday.

If I have to hold till Christmas I will!

Buda

 

[fabijo]

:laugh: buda's an "elephant."