350zCommtech's Account Talk

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The hearing was just interupted by a call from the president.

I wonder what Bush is saying to the Chairman. "Stop the hearing now! That markets are going to tank!"...:D
 
anidoc said:
Who's going to buy US junk bonds if China wants to dump?
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Not junk bonds. I was referring to US treasuries. ie. 10yr/20yr/30yr bonds.

Wait a second. Were you being facetious?:D US treasuries = junk?:D

As for who's going to buy them? Oh, they will eventually get bought up by other foreigners, but in the mean time, the back log will send interests rates much higher. That is probably what we're seeing with the 30yr bond auction failure, sending yields up.
 
Need to find a cartoon of a little Chinese guy squeezing Uncle Sams plums to go with this topic.

Paladin?

350zCommTech said:
Yup, China has the US by the balls. Fed cuts too much, killing the dollar, which in terns cuts into the profits of Chinese companies. They have to raise prices to stay in business. That is slowly happening now. Further more, Any fair trade talk out of congress and China will dump just a little bit of US bonds to drive up mortgage rates and congress shuts up.

It's got to suck to be Bernanke and the Feds right now.
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China doesn't have us by the balls. They would be much happier right now if they did. But they aren't going to put any more new bond weight into their bond wagon, which is already heading south, they would be stupid to increase the speed in that direction. They aren't the only Asian country that's been storing up $ bonds that's given up digging themselves into a hole, either. Plus, there were some European banks that took on some of those CDOs too, they have been in the news in a pretty bad way recently.

What it is is bonds are going downhill, everyone knows it, and no one (China, Japan, European banks - Rock, UBS etc, U.S. investers...) is interested in sorting out bonds to find the good ones when all of them were supposed to be triple A and ain't. In essesence, it's not that China has some sort of power over us. They don't. The problem is we aren't going to get any white knights to buy this junk. China hardly seems like the country we should expecting rescue from, nor in this case to blame for some sort of balls grabbing plot, unless they are masochistic. It's more like our bond gold rush has proven to be Iron Pyrite, and the dollar is not solid: it has a core of base metal in the middle, and any precious metal in it is one very thin coating.

Sorry for the rant, but it's not China that's doing it to us. We have done it to ourselves. We can blame stuff like hazardous Mattel toys and tampered drugs on them but not this.
 
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Silverbird said:
China doesn't have us by the balls.

Sorry for the rant, but it's not China that's doing it to us. We have done it to ourselves.
Silverbird - I respect 350z way to much to carry an argument on his thread and will gladly address this further on my own thread if you want.

The fact is China definately has us by the balls and no other country on the globe comes close. You are right in saying "WE HAVE DONE THIS TO OURSELVES" - and that none of us would argue with. But take off the Rose Glasses and see the Deficit the United States has. Bush - (and here I am not making this a political issue) and his administration have spent far more money than any other president so far. More than Johnson, Reagan and the all the others. OUR ECOMONY IS INTACT ONLY BECAUSE CHINA LOANS US THE MONEY TO SURVIVE. IF CHINA WOULD STOP LOANING US MONEY OUR ECONOMY WOULD COLLAPSE. All the more if CHINA Demanded the United States pay them back in full and at the same time decided to CASH ALL THEIR BONDS - the United States would not in any way, shape, or form have the capicity to do this. So my friend here I am simply saying wake up and realize that Money rules this world and that is a truth no one can escape from. When the houses foreclose who gets the money THE BANK - OR LOANING COMPANIES. If you are unable to pay the mortage who owns your house?? If our government becomes increasingly dependent on China for the needed money to keep things going - WHO IS REALLY IN CONTROL?
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Silverbird said:
Sorry for the rant, but it's not China that's doing it to us. We have done it to ourselves. We can blame stuff like hazardous Mattel toys and tampered drugs on them but not this.
Click to expand...

It's true that we have done it to ourselves, but that particular post was concerning US treasuries, not CDOs and mortgage backed security bonds. When I said that China has us by the balls, I meant in terms of their ability to control our long term interest rates(mortgage rates), by dumping US treasuries.

CDOs, MBS bonds, and bond insurers are all part of another topic that is also going on in my thread.
 
Steadygain said:
Silverbird - I respect 350z way to much to carry an argument on his thread and will gladly address this further on my own thread if you want.

The fact is China definately has us by the balls and no other country on the globe comes close. You are right in saying "WE HAVE DONE THIS TO OURSELVES" - and that none of us would argue with. But take off the Rose Glasses and see the Deficit the United States has. Bush - (and here I am not making this a political issue) and his administration have spent far more money than any other president so far. More than Johnson, Reagan and the all the others. OUR ECOMONY IS INTACT ONLY BECAUSE CHINA LOANS US THE MONEY TO SURVIVE. IF CHINA WOULD STOP LOANING US MONEY OUR ECONOMY WOULD COLLAPSE. All the more if CHINA Demanded the United States pay them back in full and at the same time decided to CASH ALL THEIR BONDS - the United States would not in any way, shape, or form have the capicity to do this. So my friend here I am simply saying wake up and realize that Money rules this world and that is a truth no one can escape from. When the houses foreclose who gets the money THE BANK - OR LOANING COMPANIES. If you are unable to pay the mortage who owns your house?? If our government becomes increasingly dependent on China for the needed money to keep things going - WHO IS REALLY IN CONTROL?
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Exactly, nicely put.
 
350zCommTech said:
Archived webcast of yesterdays' bond hearing:

http://www.house.gov/apps/list/hearing/financialsvcs_dem/ht021408.shtml
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That's cool 350Z, What CNBC needs to do is play parts of this everyday if you want the market to shape up quick.

This is Definitely not an easy market. As soon as you get confirmation of which way the trend is, The Market turns on a Dime. You never know who is going to come on CNBC unexpectedly. The Market is like swimming through a swamp with Alligator's everywhere. Thanks for the link. :)
 
anidoc said:
350 are you still all in F? Doing very nicely today.;)
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No, I'm back in G. It's been a crappy two weeks and nothing seems to be working for me. Time to step aside and nothing for a while. My YTD is a crappy -1.9%. That sucks the big one. I seem to be able to avoid big drops in the market only to get killed in the F fund. Two months of being under is unacceptable to me.
 
I am very angry about this. This is so wrong.... The U.K. taxpayers are paying for this. Pure corporate greed and government corruption. They should just protect the depositors and let the bank go bankrupt.

This can't be good for the F fund. Glad I got out of it.

U.K. government to nationalize Northern Rock
By Alistair Barr, MarketWatch
Last update: 1:18 p.m. EST Feb. 17, 2008

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- The U.K. government said on Sunday that it will nationalize Northern Rock PLC after the mortgage lender almost collapsed last year as the subprime crisis turned into a global credit crunch.

The surprise decision makes Gordon Brown's British government and taxpayers in the country the new owners of the struggling company.
The government said it will run Northern Rock temporarily until it can find a buyer.

Northern Rock grew quickly into one of the largest mortgage lenders in the U.K. by relying on securitization -- re-packaging most of the loans it originated into securities and selling them on to institutional investors. But that source of financing dried up when the U.S. subprime crisis hit Europe.

That forced the company to borrow emergency money from the Bank of England. When customers found out about the lifeline, many withdrew their savings in the first bank run in Britain for roughly a century.

The British government, including Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling, had been in talks with potential bidders for Northern Rock, including a consortium led by Virgin Group Ltd., private-equity group Olivant Advisers Ltd. and Northern Rock's board, which had been pursuing a standalone option for the bank. But those offers stalled last month because of uncertainty over financing.

"In current market conditions, we do not believe that they deliver sufficient value for money for the taxpayer," Darling said in a statement on Sunday. "Under public ownership the Government will secure the entire proceeds from the future sale of the business in return for bearing the risks in this period of market uncertainty." Read the full statement.http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...C9-FD45-4796-9FB0-DD042DA18612}&dist=hplatest
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