350zCommtech's Account Talk

[350zCommTech]

Wow! Big day in the F fund. If only Bernanke had done just a .50 cut....


Bernanke must be the most hated person on Earth. He promised a cut right away but held off until the retail investors capitulated all over the world. Then came in with a bigger than expected .75% cut to destroy the shorts once again.

LOL.

 

[jellobrains]

I hate him.

 

[fedgolfer]

ugh, aapl beat estimates except for the highest one. Problem is the guidance sucked. But even though Jobs always sandbags, many longs are not waiting to see the what happens when the consumer is tapped out in the future qtrs. down 13% AH.

 

[350zCommTech]

ugh, aapl beat estimates except for the highest one. Problem is the guidance sucked. But even though Jobs always sandbags, many longs are not waiting to see the what happens when the consumer is tapped out in the future qtrs. down 13% AH.

Yup, he sandbaged the guidance. The big problem now is that the stock is under the 200 in after hours trading. Since the stock is oversold, we might just be seeing people trying to meet margin calls. A big rally in Asia, followed by the OSM, should turn AAPL around, since they clearly beat the street estimates.

 

[350zCommTech]

SCA is trying to rain on our parade.
I hope this gets overlooked by the OSMs.

Security Capital says it won't try to raise new capital
By Alistair Barr
Last update: 4:55 p.m. EST Jan. 23, 2008

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Security Capital Assurance said late Wednesday that it won't try to raise new capital because turmoil in the bond insurance industry has made the plan impractical. The bond insurer said it will continue to pursue the other elements of its plan including buying reinsurance to free up extra capital and restructuring certain insured obligations. "The unprecedented uncertainty and instability affecting our industry make it impractical to consider raising new capital at the present time," Paul Giordano, chief executive of Security Capital, said in a statement. "Pending greater clarity, we intend to continue pursuing the other components of our capital plan and consider all options available to us."http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...x?guid={845FDE74-29D4-42FC-8108-C05E7B7A1160}

 

[fedgolfer]

SCA is down 24% AH on that. Still no effect on the AH prices of ABK and MBI. Let's hope its company specific. I will be watching close. Thanks 350. You are the man.

 

[350zCommTech]

ABK down 11%.

NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--January 24, 2008--Fitch Ratings has downgraded the following ratings on Security Capital Assurance Ltd. (SCA) and its financial guaranty insurance subsidiaries:

XL Capital Assurance Inc. (XLCA)

XL Capital Assurance (U.K.) Ltd. (XLCA-UK)

XL Financial Assurance Ltd. (XLFA)

--Insurer Financial Strength (IFS) to 'A' from 'AAA'

Security Capital Assurance Ltd.

--Long Term Issuer Rating to 'BBB' from 'AA'

--Fixed/Floating series A perpetual non-cumulative preference shares to 'BBB-' from 'AA-'

Twins Reefs Pass-Through Trust

--Pass-through trust securities to 'BBB' from 'AA'

The ratings remain on Rating Watch Negative.

The downgrades follow SCA's announcement yesterday that it has determined not to raise new capital at the present time due to current market conditions.

As Fitch announced on Dec. 12, 2007, when it placed SCA on Rating Watch Negative, the company has a modeled capital shortfall of more than $2 billion at the 'AAA' rating threshold. The downgrade places XLCA and XLFA's insurer financial strength (IFS) ratings at a level commensurate with an 'A' rating stress level under Fitch's most recent capital modeling.

The downgrade of the IFS ratings to 'A' coupled with the continuation of the Negative Rating Watch, reflects the significant uncertainty with respect to the company's franchise, business model and strategic direction; uncertain capital markets and the impact of SCA's recent decisions on future financial flexibility; the company's future capital strategy; ultimate loss levels in its insured portfolio; and the challenges in the financial guaranty market overall. Fitch expects to resolve the Negative Rating Watch after the agency evaluates these various qualitative factors, as well as the progress SCA makes with respect to its ongoing future capital enhancement plans.http://www.businesswire.com/portal/...d=news_view&newsId=20080124005613&newsLang=en

 

[350zCommTech]

100% F fund. Need to see a retest. E*Trade tonight and MSFT and CAT tomorrow.

F down 11 cents.

 

[Show-me]

F down 11 cents.

 

[fedgolfer]

we got close to that 8/16 candlestick in the s&P and dow and it looks like resistance. y'all staying safe? Appears a retest could be in the works... of course w/ no news today if we break that line in a bullish flurry... that could add more fuel and continue the rally.

 

[fedgolfer]

... also SKF (short financials) has broke its upper trendline on the downward slope as of about 2:45'ish yesterday afternoon. looks like its gaining momentum.

 

[350zCommTech]

The market needs to really tank and the crooks(Wall street and Feds) needs to go to prison.

Now They Tell Us
Matthew Craft 02.11.08, 12:00 AM ET
Moody's says it's hard to evaluate the risk in complex mortgage securities

It's well known that debt rating agencies like Moody's Investors Service and Standard & Poor's underestimated the trouble brewing in subprime mortgages, awarding top marks to securities now creeping close to default. But now Moody's has released a report conceding that rating agencies weren't up to the task. Any expectation it could fully uncover risk in the maze of complex financial instruments was, it says, "somewhat unrealistic."

"Risk traceability has declined probably forever," the report says. "It is extremely unlikely that in today's markets we will ever know on a timely basis where every risk lies."

It sure looks like a case of lowering the bar after tripping over it. Pierre Cailleteau, Moody's chief international economist and head of its sovereign risk unit, says he wrote the report because he wanted to look beyond the symptoms and dig up the causes of the credit market turmoil.

One knock on agencies is that the most obvious risks seemed to surprise them. Standard & Poor's still awarded its top rating to deals that closed in June of last year, as concerns over exotic mortgage securities became widespread, only to downgrade a large swath of similar deals months later. The troubled bond insurer MBIA sported at press time a triple-A rating from both Moody's and Standard & Poor's, the same mark given to the U.S. Treasury. The $1 billion in notes it sold last month to stave off a downgrade wound up with a 14% coupon, a high payout even for junk bonds.http://www.forbes.com/business/forbes/2008/0211/040b.html

 

[snowcat]

The market needs to really tank and the crooks(Wall street and Feds) needs to go to prison.

Amen to that!

 

[350zCommTech]

Amen to that!

Yup, and day by day, Bernanke is beginning to look like a use condom!:laugh:

 

[350zCommTech]

Caterpillar Posts Higher Profit, Sees Tough Conditions in U.S.
By Stephen Wisnefski
Word Count: 733 | Companies Featured in This Article: Caterpillar

Caterpillar Inc. on Friday said its fourth-quarter net income rose 11%, driven by strong growth overseas. The company also reiterated its guidance for earnings growth in 2008, even as its outlook for the U.S. economy darkened.
The Peoria, Ill., heavy-equipment maker, seen as a barometer of economic health, said Friday that recession-like conditions are developing in the U.S. but believes growth will hold up outside the country, led by growth in developing countries.
"Over time, weakness in the [U.S.] economy has spread from housing to nonresidential construction and more recently to employment and manufacturing," Caterpillar said in a release. "A ...http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120126596679816905.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

 

[350zCommTech]

nah....a vacuum cleaner. They both suck.

LOL!

 

[350zCommTech]

As if they didn't have enough problems. It's also funny how this came out Friday after the bell.

AP
Ambac Is Subject of Class Action Suit
Friday January 25, 6:58 pm ET

Ambac Financial Group Confirms It Is the Subject of Class Action Lawsuit

NEW YORK (AP) -- Bond insurer Ambac Financial Group Inc. confirmed it is the subject of a federal securities class action lawsuit in a Securities and Exchange Commission filing on Friday.

Ambac and other bond insurers have struggled over the past six months as the value of insured debt has plummeted. Ambac reported a loss of $3.26 billion in the fourth quarter after contracts it issued to cover claims plunged in value.

The suit, captioned Reimer v. Ambac Financial Group, was filed Jan. 16 in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York on behalf of buyers of Ambac's shares from Oct. 19, 2005 to Nov. 26, 2007.The complaint alleges, among other things, that the company and some of its officers and directors violated federal securities laws by issuing materially false and misleading statements that artificially inflated the stock price.


A second lawsuit, a shareholder derivative action, was also filed on Jan. 23 in the Southern District court. The suit, captioned Rubery v. Callen, et al., names some present and former directors and officers of Ambac as defendants.


According to the filing, the lawsuit alleges breaches of fiduciary duties, waste of corporate assets, unjust enrichment and violations of the federal securities laws.


The company said it does not plan to disclose similar lawsuits in the future.
The suits is the latest in a string of bad news for the company.
Last week, Massachusetts' top securities regulator served Ambac with a subpoena seeking information on how much the firms disclosed to cities and towns about their exposure to mortgage-related investments that have recently plunged in value.


Fitch also cut Ambac's top-notch financial strength rating to "AA" from "AAA" due to concerns that the bond insurer would not have enough spare capital to cover potential claims.


Ambac shares gained 21 cents to $11.54 on Friday.http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080125/ambac_financial_group_lawsuit.html?.v=1

 

[Rod]

May not bode too well for (F), huh?

 

[350zCommTech]

May not bode too well for (F), huh?

Not exactly. While the AGG does hold asset backed securities, It does not appear to hold any mortgage backed bonds. If it does, it's a very, very small portion compared to US treasuries. That is why we can use just the TNX and TYX to calculate the F fund.

ABK deals mainly with muni-bonds, MBS, CDOs, and CDS. Muni-bonds are OK while the rest are losing value day after day. Any bad news these bond insurers will be bad news for the market and good news for the F fund.

But, if there is any hint of a bailout for any of these guys (ABK/MBIA), the F fund will get destroyed. That was what happened Yesterday. I warned about that last week.

 

[Rod]

But, if there is any hint of a bailout for any of these guys (ABK/MBIA), the F fund will get destroyed. That was what happened Yesterday. I warned about that last week.

ABK/MBIA is who I was thinking of when I read you mentioned Ambac. I got Ambac confused with ABK.

Anyways, that is one reason why I exited (F) when I did.