350zCommtech's Account Talk

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Prozium said:
OK. Some fundamentals. China is having to take loans from the IMF. Who is going to step up to buy our debt?

BTW: The RSI is everything you need to know - UP.
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Yes, I know. Long term, yields are going up. I've posted about foreigners buying less and less of our debt. The collapse of the bond market is a real possibility. I'm just betting that it's not going to happen while I'm in the F fund. When I got in the F fund last week, I wrote about the pain that I might have to sit through while I wait for a signal to use my last IFT, preferably to get back into stocks. Today is that pain.
 
350zCommTech said:
Yes, I know. Long term, yields are going up. I've posted about foreigners buying less and less of our debt. The collapse of the bond market is a real possibility. I'm just betting that it's not going to happen while I'm in the F fund. When I got in the F fund last week, I wrote about the pain that I might have to sit through while I wait for a signal to use my last IFT, preferably to get back into stocks. Today is that pain.
Click to expand...


I missed the F pain only to endure the C/S pain!:D
 
Minnow said:
Check the charts again ... something afoot?
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Maybe they announced a new Paulson as Treasury Sec. :laugh: ... only If, huh?

Paulson May Have Made $67 Million in 25-Minute Lloyds Plunge
Email | Print | A A A


By Tom Cahill
Feb. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Paulson & Co., the hedge fund run by billionaire John Paulson, may have made as much as $67 million in 25 minutes today as Lloyds Banking Group Plc lost about 5.9 billion pounds ($8.5 billion) in market value.
Lloyds fell the most in 20 years after saying HBOS Plc, the U.K. lender it took over last month, would report a 10 billion- pound ($14.5 billion) pretax loss. The shares plunged as much as 43 percent in less than 25 minutes of London trading.
Paulson held a Lloyds short position representing 0.79 percent of the bank, or 129.3 million shares, as of Jan. 20, according to a regulatory filing. DataExplorers.com, which tracks share borrowing from London, said 1.1 percent of the stock was on loan as of Feb. 11, the most recent data available. That’s down from as much as 8 percent six months ago and suggests Paulson held the bulk of the short position left.
“It wasn’t really shorted at all before this share drop,” Julian Pittam, a managing director at DataExplorers.com, said in an telephone interview from London. “There’s little upside and lots of downside in banks when there’s this much political rhetoric and volatility going on.”
Armel Leslie, a spokesman for the $36 billion New York- based hedge fund, declined to comment. There’s no indication that Paulson closed his short position, and there won’t be until a subsequent filing.
Shares Tumble
Lloyds closed down 32 percent at 61.4 pence. Paulson’s short position would have netted a gain of $54 million, based on the closing prices of the past two days.
The Financial Services Authority, the U.K. market regulator, lifted a short-selling ban on financial companies on Jan. 16. The restrictions were imposed in September as politicians and investors blamed hedge funds for destabilizing markets.
Under the FSA short-selling disclosure rules, an investor has to disclose when it has 0.25 percent of share capital shorted, and report again if it makes any changes of 0.1 percent of the overall share capital from that point, according to Darren Fox, a regulatory lawyer at Simmons & Simmons in London.
Short sellers borrow shares and sell them with plans to buy them back at a lower price. FSA Chairman Adair Turner said Jan. 22 that there was no evidence that short selling has led to a significant fall in banking shares.
Paulson & Co. said its funds made more than $3 billion for the firm in 2007 by judging that the U.S. housing market and subprime mortgages would collapse. Paulson had previously disclosed short positions in Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc, Barclays Plc and HBOS, the bank now owned by Lloyds.
To contact the reporter on this story: Tom Cahill in London at tcahill@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: February 13, 2009 13:12 EST
 
350zCommTech said:
Another BS, white house to announce foreclosure plan on Wednesday, stick save. It came right as the markets were about to take a dump. It's now bouncing around in the triangle.:rolleyes:
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Yeah, I think Citi, JPM, et. al., said they would halt foreclosures for three weeks until the details for a national standard could be worked out in the bs committees. :sick:

What a joke.

I'm no technical wizard but the technicals look like they could get really bad really soon to me. This stimulus signing looks like a golden opportunity for the shorts to have a revenge party. But I've been wrong before. They might have their party before COB today.
 
Looks like the roller coaster picture I posted before the open was very fitting for today. That least 15 minutes took your breathe away if you were long or short.

Have a great weekend.
 
Prozium said:
Looks like the roller coaster picture I posted before the open was very fitting for today. That least 15 minutes took your breathe away if you were long or short.

Have a great weekend.
Click to expand...

Thank you,

You too Prozium.


I think the /ES closed below the triangle. I'm not at home. Could somebody confirm that?

Thanks.
 
Market closed just in time.

ES is under 819 which is major support in after hours.

Da boyz will have to work some magic 3:30am on Tuesday morning or it is going to be a very rough open on Tuesday.
 
mojo said:
Futures are already going way down.
S&P -15.30 at 820
dow -158
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Seems like the futures are not correct Friday after the close. I usually look at money.cnn.com and type in SPY to see how the market is doing after hours Friday.

Last check, was down an additional 0.25%, or about 2 S&P pts.
 
Corepuncher said:
Seems like the futures are not correct Friday after the close. I usually look at money.cnn.com and type in SPY to see how the market is doing after hours Friday.

Last check, was down an additional 0.25%, or about 2 S&P pts.
Click to expand...


Thanks. I wonder why they would be that far off on Bloomberg?
 
CNBC and Bloomberg reporting the same gap down in futures. No surprise on pasage of stimulus. Sell the news. Was looking for a huge gap down next week as news begins reporting that 2009 second half rebound will not materialize. On the other hand, big government has been add it throwing stick saves, PPT intervention, and economy numbers that appear way too generous given the current bleak outlook. Retail numbers doesn't add up and job loses don't take into account part time workers looking for full time employment. News of bigger bank failure may also be coming according to CNBC mentioning C and BOA.

I'm stunned the market has been able to digest what appears to be accelerating loses in mortgage values, rapidly increasing foreclosures, Foreign governments reluctants to pay off any more US debt without further collateral or inflation run amok in the coming years. This list goes on with bank failures expected to increase across the country. :(

Surely by now, we can all see that big money is staying away as earnings continue to be rapidly readjusted. I hate to mention the Grim Reaper is coming but...the only thing I see that is beginning to take shape is a depression looking chart that is slowly being controlled by world governments...but nevertheless...similarities are becoming quite real. :sick:

Or...maybe we can all just continue to believe that things are going to be fine and a second half recover is going to happen. :notrust:

Take care and preservation is critical. Gosh, it sure feels like a steep market fall is coming. I just cannot shake the feeling. :worried:
 
felixthecat said:
CNBC and Bloomberg reporting the same gap down in futures. No surprise on pasage of stimulus. Sell the news. Was looking for a huge gap down next week as news begins reporting that 2009 second half rebound will not materialize. On the other hand, big government has been add it throwing stick saves, PPT intervention, and economy numbers that appear way too generous given the current bleak outlook. Retail numbers doesn't add up and job loses don't take into account part time workers looking for full time employment. News of bigger bank failure may also be coming according to CNBC mentioning C and BOA.

I'm stunned the market has been able to digest what appears to be accelerating loses in mortgage values, rapidly increasing foreclosures, Foreign governments reluctants to pay off any more US debt without further collateral or inflation run amok in the coming years. This list goes on with bank failures expected to increase across the country.

Surely by now, we can all see that big money is staying away as earnings continue to be rapidly readjusted. I hate to mention the Grim Reaper is coming but...the only thing I see that is beginning to take shape is a depression looking chart that is slowly being controlled by world governments...but nevertheless...similarities are becoming quite real.

Or...maybe we can all just continue to believe that things are going to be fine and a second half recover is going to happen.

Take care and preservation is critical. Gosh, it sure feels like a steep market fall is coming. I just cannot shake the feeling.
Click to expand...

If I am not mistaken, those futures are adding Friday's losses as well. For example, I think the S&P is down about 5-6 pts in after hours, not 15. Maybe I just dont' know how to read the futures
:embarrest:
 
Dow futures suggest -50, S&P -5, Nasdaq -7. Still, these numbers appear to suggest that the markets will probably gap down on Tuesday without government intervention (beyond the stimulus). Besides, historically, the markets are definitely on the negative side a couple of days after the upcoming holiday. :worried:

Someone pass the popcorn, this is getting quite interesting. If we break SP 815 and stay below that, momentum will push us right through into S&P 700's. Daming news next week could set the markets for many victims being caught trying to catch a falling knife. :sick:

Going to bed. Snore...and no I didn't mean snort. :)
 
felixthecat said:
If we break SP 815 and stay below that, momentum will push us right through into S&P 700's. Daming news next week could set the markets for many victims being caught trying to catch a falling knife. :sick:

Going to bed. Snore...and no I didn't mean snort. :)
Click to expand...

This coming week or the next, we are 700s in the S&P.

Probability: 99%
 
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