Happy belated birthday Nnuut 
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For the S&P 500, 1st quarter 2015 put in a higher high, higher low, and higher close. We closed up .44% this is below with the 20-year 1.75% average returns, is the 14th best first quarter over the past 21 years, and the 38th best over the past 65 years
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For the shorter 20-year trend, we'll contrast the 2nd quarter against the other 3 quarters of the year
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Looking at the 2nd quarter's long-term stats from 1950-2014
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Here are the most positive stats you're likely to ever see me post…
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In the 1st quarter, the Dow Jones Industrials did not close below its December low therefore the December Low Indicator was not triggered, this is historically bullish.
"All but two of the instances since 1952 experienced further declines, as the Dow fell an additional 10.9% on average when December's low was breached in Q1." Hirsch (2014-09-24). Stock Trader's Almanac 2015 (Almanac Investor Series)
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January's First 5 days indicator was triggered, this is historically bullish.
"The last 41 up First Five Days were followed by full-year gains 35 times for an 85.4% accuracy ratio and a 14.0% average gain in all 41 years."Hirsch (2014-09-24). Stock Trader's Almanac 2015 (Almanac Investor Series) (Kindle Locations 380-381). Wiley. Kindle Edition.
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The January Barometer "So goes January, so goes the year" was triggered, this is historically bearish and as you can see there is a large disparity between a positive/negative January and its correlation to the End of Year close.
That about sums it up, take care…Jason
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For the S&P 500, 1st quarter 2015 put in a higher high, higher low, and higher close. We closed up .44% this is below with the 20-year 1.75% average returns, is the 14th best first quarter over the past 21 years, and the 38th best over the past 65 years
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For the shorter 20-year trend, we'll contrast the 2nd quarter against the other 3 quarters of the year
- We show a 65% winning ratio, which ranks 3rd
- We show 2.63% average returns, which ranks 2nd
- We show 6.92% average positive returns, which ranks 2nd
- We show -5.33% average negative returns, which ranks 1st (that's good)
- In the shorter 20-year trend, the 2nd quarter is an excellent performer, within the confines of this data, I rank this as the 2nd best quarter of the year
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Looking at the 2nd quarter's long-term stats from 1950-2014
- We show the last 64 second quarters have an average 59% winning ratio and 1.73% average returns
- For the 40 years when the 1st quarter closed up, the 2nd quarter has a 65% winning ratio with 2.94% average returns
- For the 24 years when the 1st quarter closed down, the 2nd quarter has a 50% winning ratio with -.29% average returns
- In the longer 64-year trend, the data infers, the 2nd quarter is an excellent performer with a both a stronger winning ratio and higher average returns
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Here are the most positive stats you're likely to ever see me post…
- Looking at the 1st quarter's close from 1950-2014 and correlating it with the End of Year returns
- For the 40 years when the 1st quarter closed up, the End of Year has a 93% winning ratio with 16.51% average returns
- For the 24 years when the 1st quarter closed down, the End of Year has a 50% winning ratio with .19% average returns
- In the longer 64-year trend, this data infers, there is a very strong likelihood we will end the year positive
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In the 1st quarter, the Dow Jones Industrials did not close below its December low therefore the December Low Indicator was not triggered, this is historically bullish.
"All but two of the instances since 1952 experienced further declines, as the Dow fell an additional 10.9% on average when December's low was breached in Q1." Hirsch (2014-09-24). Stock Trader's Almanac 2015 (Almanac Investor Series)
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January's First 5 days indicator was triggered, this is historically bullish.
"The last 41 up First Five Days were followed by full-year gains 35 times for an 85.4% accuracy ratio and a 14.0% average gain in all 41 years."Hirsch (2014-09-24). Stock Trader's Almanac 2015 (Almanac Investor Series) (Kindle Locations 380-381). Wiley. Kindle Edition.
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The January Barometer "So goes January, so goes the year" was triggered, this is historically bearish and as you can see there is a large disparity between a positive/negative January and its correlation to the End of Year close.
- For the 39 years when January closed up, the End of Year has a 90% winning ratio with 16.71% average returns (for 2015 this stat doesn't apply)
- For the 25 years when January closed down, the End of Year has a 48% winning ratio with -3.39% average returns (for 2015 this stat does apply)
That about sums it up, take care…Jason
