1st quarter 2006

[The_Technician]

imported post

My expectations are simple....lets post what we see coming our way....here's mine...



Jan we get a correction...could be 10% in the funds...mainly due to the current economics....expecting better atmosphere from the Feds to generate an economy....tax purposeswill be the reason for the sell off....

Feb we get some more and then blend into somewhat of a bottom out...predicting dates will be premium.....

March we may get some rebound....but will not be sustained...
:dude:

 

[oldschool]

imported post

Tech, hope we don't see that big a correction...

Here's my sense of January - big swings, but c & s up, maybe 2%, by end of the shortened first week. Volume will still be a little low that week, making swings more dramatic. I'm just thinking the i fund is not going to get the currency translation kick any time too soon, so it will be flat in the first half of January. Late winter and on into spring, the dollar will be under some pressure as folks begin to see what prices (lower) it will take to clear up the expanding real estate inventory - so i fund may get into a trend of favorable currency adjustments depending how the non-us g-7 economies are doing. And as we get to late spring, 30 year mortgage rates will start to move up.

Washington Post today has story saying DC area inventories of homes for sale are double what they were last year at this time. Another Post story details the incentives builders are offering to clear out their inventory. But isn't this real estate downturn "priced in" to the market by now - at least somewhat? Will market focus in Feb. on Fed ending rate increases, or look at that as confirmation that the housing market is seriously on the skids. I'm hoping Mr. Market will instead say "perfect Alan, thanks for the soft landing". We'll see.

I think I've seen it reported that one of the major investment banks expects the shift in the residential real estate market to take 1% off the overall growth rate expected for 2006. Ending of cash out finances and all that.

And... as to short term strategies, wondering whether you come out ahead if you are in G only on the days it pays a penny, vs. staying in C, or 20% each (for example) on those same days. That penny looks tempting, but if you miss a few up days in the other funds, it won't look so charming. Maybe I'll do some calculations in the New Year.

Happy New Year!

 

[oldschool]

Interesting that s not seeming to outperform c on the upside today. Some of the big Wall Street houses have been saying this is a year for large caps to outperform small caps. maybe some of the small cap $$ have already migrated to large caps? If so, maybe s is becoming more susceptible to fast downside moves?

 

[oldschool]

Here's a link to a good article expanding on the concept of "let your profits run" - also discusses rationale for happily buying into an upward trend.

Guess I didn't read it before I pulled some back into "G" today

www.phptr.com/articles/article.asp?p=425003&seqNum=9&rl=1

 

[Fivetears]

Just read the article, and agree with it to a large extent. I too am in the G, after missing out on the early January market drive and sacking away a mere .9% at the 2 week mark. I feel the bottom is going to fall out of the F,C,& S Funds real soon, and real fast. There are too many things pointing to the fact. I just hate it when the bears cut the bottom of my coin sack. I'm not willing to hang it out there this time. Check out the price of OIL and gas. The defecation is going to hit the rotary oscillator.

 

[Mike]

The F fund has lagged all others for years now. Why exactly do you expect the bottom to fall out of it?

If monetary policy is no longer being tightened - i.e. the economy is slowing or is about to - bonds should start becoming attractive again as company profits/earnings start to decline.