05/08/13
Stocks rallied again on Tuesday and the Dow closed above 15,000 for the first time ever. The Dow picked up another 87-points on the day and once again the small caps and the Transports led the way higher.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 152"]
[TR]
[TD]G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.0035%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.04%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.53%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.72%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.10%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]More returns [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
Despite the fact that I am still on the sidelines, I was glad to see the Dow close above 15,000. I am getting pretty tired of CNBC and the rest of the media freaking out over the 15,000 mark so now that it has happened, maybe they will slow down on their cheerleading. I suppose if I was in the stock funds right now, I'd be waving my pompoms too.
Somebody forgot to tell investors that they were supposed to sell in May, and go away. The S&P 500 made it four days in a row of decent gains here in early May. Once again we are closing in on resistance that should slow things down, but the resistance lines are heading higher so it is a moving target favoring the bulls.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The current move higher looks like other similar "F" flag breakouts that we've seen at least twice this year already, where volatility is low and the rally is slow but relentless.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The sentimenTrader.com Smart Money / Dumb Money indicator is back in the warning area where the dumb money confidence reading is over 60 while the smart money confidence reading is below 40.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com, analysis by TSP Talk
While it is a warning sign, the chart below shows that it is definitely not a deal breaker right away for every rally.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Almost every correction starts with a 60/40 reading, but it can takes months before the market peaks and the correction starts. So again, I see a warning, but that just means some sort of correction is likely in the next few months. We get a 10% on average about once a year anyway.
Thanks for reading! We'll see you tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Stocks rallied again on Tuesday and the Dow closed above 15,000 for the first time ever. The Dow picked up another 87-points on the day and once again the small caps and the Transports led the way higher.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[TD="align: center"]Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 152"]
[TR]
[TD]G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.0035%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.04%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.53%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.72%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.10%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]More returns [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
Despite the fact that I am still on the sidelines, I was glad to see the Dow close above 15,000. I am getting pretty tired of CNBC and the rest of the media freaking out over the 15,000 mark so now that it has happened, maybe they will slow down on their cheerleading. I suppose if I was in the stock funds right now, I'd be waving my pompoms too.
Somebody forgot to tell investors that they were supposed to sell in May, and go away. The S&P 500 made it four days in a row of decent gains here in early May. Once again we are closing in on resistance that should slow things down, but the resistance lines are heading higher so it is a moving target favoring the bulls.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The current move higher looks like other similar "F" flag breakouts that we've seen at least twice this year already, where volatility is low and the rally is slow but relentless.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The sentimenTrader.com Smart Money / Dumb Money indicator is back in the warning area where the dumb money confidence reading is over 60 while the smart money confidence reading is below 40.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com, analysis by TSP Talk
While it is a warning sign, the chart below shows that it is definitely not a deal breaker right away for every rally.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Almost every correction starts with a 60/40 reading, but it can takes months before the market peaks and the correction starts. So again, I see a warning, but that just means some sort of correction is likely in the next few months. We get a 10% on average about once a year anyway.
Thanks for reading! We'll see you tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
