12%ayear's Account Talk

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12%ayear said:
get ready for higher rates
Click to expand...

It would appear that higher rates are coming. Inflation has taken the
back seat for quite a while. As you said in your previous entry, its not
what they do (I think "unchanged") it's what they say. If they leave
the Market to believe that the rate hikes will come fast & furious, just
as they did in lowering them, IMO, the market will take a temporary
dump to levels that would make one cry. Leaving the rates "unchanged"
while watching inflation concerns with more focus, might lead it down
to a level of easier recovery. The dollar rising is good for our economy
and I can't wait to see the comodities bubble leak some air. Gas prices
need to tumble, truckers in Washington DC, (70's flashback) need to be
heard and more importantly - I need to trade my moped in for a car. Its
taking me 17 hours to get to work on that thing. Did I mention it rains
here! :nuts:
 
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The Fed done cutting, they know they have to fight oil prices and make the US DOLLAR stronger. That is more important right now. I see a sell-off today on those comments and a push higher the following days days based on the oil prices falling and Wall St. agreeing with that move. Just my 2 cents. For people thinking this is bad, they are wrong. Oil is the main focus here not borrowing capital for businesses and the public. Oil is killing spending. Higher rates+stronger US DOLLAR = cheaper commodity prices. We must have some pain before the gain.
 
12%ayear said:
The Fed done cutting, they know they have to fight oil prices and make the US DOLLAR stronger. That is more important right now. I see a sell-off today on those comments and a push higher the following days days based on the oil prices falling and Wall St. agreeing with that move. Just my 2 cents. For people thinking this is bad, they are wrong. Oil is the main focus here not borrowing capital for businesses and the public. Oil is killing spending. Higher rates+stronger US DOLLAR = cheaper commodity prices. We must have some pain before the gain.
Click to expand...

Agree with you 12%, concerning oil. Even if the Fed lowers the funds rate to zero, consumer spending is still the driving force behind the economy. If consumers are spending considerably more on gas and food and anticipate that these prices may hold or worsen, then they will withhold or cut back on other unnecessary spending. This includes buying homes and all the furnishings that go with it. Oil is so key to our economy and its price drives many other aspects of of the economy, including consumer sentiment. Since our economy has been built assuming cheap and abundant sources of energy, it will take some time before it adapts to the new reality of competition for these resources and the ensuing higher prices.
 
and the market doesn't care as long as the fed keeps it buffered from reality. Let the good times continue to roll..earnings don't matter.;)
 
Interesting to see people performing an IFT today not realizing that it goes into affect May 1st and will count as their first IFT for the month.
 
12%, Sorry to barge in on your account. I've been in TSPtalk but I can't post as I am out doors with PC's for testing but no internet access. Today Our boss is retiting so I I thought I'd take the liberty to ask a question. I've been restricted fron making ITF's since the beginning of March. I take it tomorrow they will allow all those who are restricted to make IFT's on line. My question; if I make an ITF tomorrow will that count as my first transfer and left with just one more for the rest of May. I presume that might be the case; just a bit confused about the mess TSP has created with their new regulations. Anyway, thanks in advance. I read your threads whenever possible and I respect you opinions. Thanks.

Jim
 
nasa1974 said:
Interesting to see people performing an IFT today not realizing that it goes into affect May 1st and will count as their first IFT for the month.
Click to expand...
If you do it electronically before NOON today it is effective COB today April 30. It is the last IFT for April. If it's done after 12 NOON, then it's the first IFT for May.

Ladies and gentlemen, position yourselves and start your engines.
 
TSP-roulette said:
12%, Sorry to barge in on your account. I've been in TSPtalk but I can't post as I am out doors with PC's for testing but no internet access. Today Our boss is retiting so I I thought I'd take the liberty to ask a question. I've been restricted fron making ITF's since the beginning of March. I take it tomorrow they will allow all those who are restricted to make IFT's on line. My question; if I make an ITF tomorrow will that count as my first transfer and left with just one more for the rest of May. I presume that might be the case; just a bit confused about the mess TSP has created with their new regulations. Anyway, thanks in advance. I read your threads whenever possible and I respect you opinions. Thanks.

Jim
Click to expand...
YES, however if you go into into any other fund besides the G Fund on your 2nd ITF, you are allowed one more into the G Fund.
 
TSP-roulette said:
12%, Sorry to barge in on your account. I've been in TSPtalk but I can't post as I am out doors with PC's for testing but no internet access. Today Our boss is retiting so I I thought I'd take the liberty to ask a question. I've been restricted fron making ITF's since the beginning of March. I take it tomorrow they will allow all those who are restricted to make IFT's on line. My question; if I make an ITF tomorrow will that count as my first transfer and left with just one more for the rest of May. I presume that might be the case; just a bit confused about the mess TSP has created with their new regulations. Anyway, thanks in advance. I read your threads whenever possible and I respect you opinions. Thanks.

Jim
Click to expand...
12% I hope you don't mind if I answer.
  • Yes.
  • New rule is effective 05/01/08. That means all methods of IFT as stated in the regulations are allowed as of that date (actually that part of the regulation was never legally changed but we won't pursue that).
  • It means that you are allowed two unrestricted - meaning to any fund including G - per month. You are also allowed unlimited moves to the G fund after that, through the end of the month. This means you can DCA into G or move 100% to G, but not OUT.
  • So if your first move is from C/S/I/F >G, even 1%, that's 1 IFT. If you move more to G in another IFT, that's 2. That means you have used up your unrestricted moves, and can now move ONLY to G for the rest of the month.
  • I like to think of it as a 2+G rule. Two moves anywhere, then to G for the rest of the month.:D
 
luv2read said:
12% I hope you don't mind if I answer.
  • Yes.
  • New rule is effective 05/01/08. That means all methods of IFT as stated in the regulations are allowed as of that date (actually that part of the regulation was never legally changed but we won't pursue that).
  • It means that you are allowed two unrestricted - meaning to any fund including G - per month. You are also allowed unlimited moves to the G fund after that, through the end of the month. This means you can DCA into G or move 100% to G, but not OUT.
  • So if your first move is from C/S/I/F >G, even 1%, that's 1 IFT. If you move more to G in another IFT, that's 2. That means you have used up your unrestricted moves, and can now move ONLY to G for the rest of the month.
  • I like to think of it as a 2+G rule. Two moves anywhere, then to G for the rest of the month.:D
Click to expand...
thanks
 
Fed cuts rates by one-quarter point
By Ruth Mantell
Last update: 2:15 p.m. EDT April 30, 2008
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Moving to revitalize the economy, the Federal Reserve cut the key federal funds rate target by one-quarter of a percentage point to 2.0% -- matching Wall Street's expectations. The rate cut brought the Fed's target for overnight interest rates to the lowest level since December 2004. The FOMC emphasized higher inflationary pressures and downplayed risks to growth, a signal that the committee may leave rates steady at the next meeting.
Click to expand...
factored in. Sell the news!
 
12%ayear said:
The Fed done cutting, they know they have to fight oil prices and make the US DOLLAR stronger. That is more important right now. I see a sell-off today on those comments and a push higher the following days days based on the oil prices falling and Wall St. agreeing with that move. Just my 2 cents. For people thinking this is bad, they are wrong. Oil is the main focus here not borrowing capital for businesses and the public. Oil is killing spending. Higher rates+stronger US DOLLAR = cheaper commodity prices. We must have some pain before the gain.
Click to expand...
Posted above this morning. The Fed knows oil is the key to improving this economy. In order to do this, you need several things in play. 1. Higher US DOLLAR 2. Lower Commodity prices .....The Fed should of went up on rates, but to appease the media and the public, it caved in. You will not see any more rates for a a long time now. They cannot afford to cut anymore. P.S. rally tomorrow based on the markets loving this logic from the FED.
 
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