12%ayear's Account Talk

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no friggin' way are you making it back to green...... where's the cooler? get him in here!!!! (doin' my best Alec Baldwin impersonation)

gl
 
Market will be fine....just do not look until 12-31. Stop swingtrading or you will get screwed. Trust me or I will never post again..lol. You will see 14000s EASY!!!
 
I hear ya 12%. It's a marathon, not a sprint. With the closing upon us the board has more swings than Carter has liver pills.

Geaux
 
hessian said:
Hey philly fed,
Yes thanks, I think it happened to be a good day to DCA-in. I decided to go another 20% to S, and just threw the other 5% at I.
It wasn't planned - having that last 1/2 hr drop yesterday (but as it turned out, it was maybe a little better than hoped). Some folks even today were calling for/saying we needed a re-test of lows that we saw what Monday?/late last week - maybe we hit those today, maybe intraday -that's my hope anyway. That if we must hit those, that we get past that re-test today/right now (by 3:30), begin strong move up. We'll see. Slow & steady up from here is just w/ me too. Its hard to call exact bottoms, so just don't get caught holding the bag.

Also appeciate the insight on FEDEX. Not sure I'd be too concerned though - who knows about these things. I know I have several things I ordered recently, and I got back 6/7 emails already that items are now on backorder. One has been delayed now 4 times! This means to me that either warehouses are not able to get enough in orders in from overseas fast enough (good for markets), or things are selling out too fast (also good for markets) Point is there could be many reasons for delivery slow-downs. USPS and especially UPS are strong competitors, too -it is interesting though, so thanks for passing it along.
VR

PS 3:30 - Here we go!!!!!
Click to expand...
Touche'

The VERY weak dollar could be holding up those import deliveries....Just a theory.

Maybe Asian manufacturers rather be selling those strong demanded widgets to Europe?? My brother did tell me the stores are not meeting the demand for the Sony WEI's for one example.
 
The goods news is that most of all the big names have writen-downs on sub-prime. Meaning the worst is already factored in. The strong will bounce back, the small cheezy banks will go bellyup or be bought out for pennies on the dollar. That aside, I see momo come into the marketplace and restart the bull run. This bads news on sub-prime I mentioned way back in April. Oil has to hit a $100 because it is there already. Big deal, oil is way overbought,US way oversold,market way oversold, Euro way overbought, and Chinese Market way overbought. This kind of market is not for the faint. Thick skin and laughter is a must. Next Year 2008, I will start swingtrading again. But now it is a must to be postioned. GL
 
phillyfed said:
Good move to DCA.......No one on this or any message board knows what the market may bring. The Pros can read charts just like us. They get paid to do this and they are no better then those of us that follow the market regularly. My broker gives me advise. I weigh it in but most of the time its garbage. Its the same cliched rhetoric. Its gonna be tough to catch a bottom w/ our Intraday trades. INTERDAY transfers would be great but we did come along ways with the TSP. Its smart $costavg, like your doing. Just my opinion.

My strategy is to DCA and take about a 70% position when(if) we trade around DOW 12,700. I was 100% in G today, put in a 35% position in stocks before Noon. I'm going to hold tight a couple of days, then add more unless the market totally capitulates like I think we will. Then I'm in 70%.....The last 30% will be put in after things look like they may go one way or the other reading technicals.

As ive said before, when(if) we get the healthy 10% correction on all the indexes, I think that will be a bullish sign for the markets. Its all aboard time.

Heres something thats bothersome:

My brother is a terminal manager for Fedex ground in the Philadelphia area. His terminal volume is at its lowest in the past 5 years. He called around to a few other term managers around the country. They are experiencing the same thing.

Usually at this time of year (right before black Friday) he has so much work. Hes not seeing it thus far. His workload is about 70% commercial and 30% residencial for referance.

This is an extremely important indicator for forward retail sales. This is anticipated in the markets already. To the degree my brothers seeing it thou, Im not so sure

Good luck.
Click to expand...
I agree to a point. IMO, these weak projected retail numbers will get crushed and beat. IMOhttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB119500071588192076.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
But there are some signs that dour consumer sentiment has been offset by income gains that will allow shoppers to exceed their year-ago holiday budget on electronics, gift cards and personal travel.
Gift cards are a huge way of buying now days, That is one reason why your bother is seeing less packages than normal. Another point is that people are earning more. Yes, nobody can guess the markets or we would not be here posting our 2 cents. However; you must have a plan of action and listen to yourself. Also, something will have to give. You cannot have high oil prices and high inventory levels. This does not balance or justify the cost or should I say the bottom-line. I see these sharks at work. They fed the media bloody murder and cause fear..why? to short and then turn around and go long. See you at 14000s
 
BREAKING NEWS....US DOLLAR GETS NEW LOOK TO SHOW OUR VALUE
mexican_dollar.jpg
 
Hey, that's the dollar that I owe Fedgolfer. :D
I gotta go back and check, but I think that we touched his re-test level 1st (put in that all-important double bottom!)
If so, good for him!
(Not that this was a big a deal for me, only that maybe this is what many folks needed to see, & we'll now start seeing the BIG buying!) :p
 
Hessian, i think the retest I referred to you in the PM exchange was that we'd retest the August lows - somewhere in the depths of that gigantic hammer candle. That 1459 today was just a support point on the 10 day chart in the s&p that confirmed the short-term bounce was probably over.
 
12%,
So far, I'd have to say - opening is looking good.
Don't like that we just turned slightly red, but we'll see.
VR
(I'm sure you'll be lettin' us know if another direction is suggested).:)
Thanks
 
i have a feeling we're going to see a stock liquidation/sale today.... QQQQs, goog/rimm... looking like they'll fall out of support hard.
 
12%ayear said:
I agree to a point. IMO, these weak projected retail numbers will get crushed and beat. IMOhttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB119500071588192076.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
But there are some signs that dour consumer sentiment has been offset by income gains that will allow shoppers to exceed their year-ago holiday budget on electronics, gift cards and personal travel.
Gift cards are a huge way of buying now days, That is one reason why your bother is seeing less packages than normal. Another point is that people are earning more. Yes, nobody can guess the markets or we would not be here posting our 2 cents. However; you must have a plan of action and listen to yourself. Also, something will have to give. You cannot have high oil prices and high inventory levels. This does not balance or justify the cost or should I say the bottom-line. I see these sharks at work. They fed the media bloody murder and cause fear..why? to short and then turn around and go long. See you at 14000s
Click to expand...

Not sure where your going here but Im fairly bullish as well and have a plan. I would like to see a healthy correction. Just DCA in slowly instead of blindly diving in and assuming we are heading higher. Have you ever seen the Dollar this low?.....Have we ever had bank write-offs to this extent? This is some serious stuff that you cant ignore. Why does the market deserve to be at all-time highs as you say?

And what I said about Fedex was spot on......Fedex is now down 5% today on fuel concerns and weak freight carry loads. This just re-iterates what my brother has told me and since Fedex is down 5% this isnt priced in and is a HUGE forward indicator of things to come in retail.
 
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