Mike
Active member
imported post
Keep the flaming out of this thread, please. This article contains many useful charts to help you spot the different types of yield curves. It also explains the economic conditions that exist when each type is seen and why they have a strong predictive quality. I consider this a must-read for novices (myself included
).
http://www.smartmoney.com/onebond/index.cfm?story=yieldcurve
The following is also something I found useful - it contains the S&P chart from 1997 - present along with a yield curve that changes as you slide along the S&P chart. This means you have at your fingertips the yield curve for ANY point in time (I think it measures ~1 week intervals)between 1997 and now. :^
http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/YieldCurve.html
Some thoughts upon closely examining the charts:
- Current yield curve is not inverted (one can certainly claim it is flattening, though).
- A good example of inversion is early 2000; the 10 year yield dropped below the 5 year yield. In September of 2000, the yields < 5 years went above the 5-30 year yields... the market dropped like a rockalmost immediatelyafter that. :shock:
- Flat(tening) yields: 1999 shows a very flat yield curve for the most part. There were also a couple of brief inversions in 1998, which happened in the fall of that year.
Keep the flaming out of this thread, please. This article contains many useful charts to help you spot the different types of yield curves. It also explains the economic conditions that exist when each type is seen and why they have a strong predictive quality. I consider this a must-read for novices (myself included
).http://www.smartmoney.com/onebond/index.cfm?story=yieldcurve
The following is also something I found useful - it contains the S&P chart from 1997 - present along with a yield curve that changes as you slide along the S&P chart. This means you have at your fingertips the yield curve for ANY point in time (I think it measures ~1 week intervals)between 1997 and now. :^
http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/YieldCurve.html
Some thoughts upon closely examining the charts:
- Current yield curve is not inverted (one can certainly claim it is flattening, though).
- A good example of inversion is early 2000; the 10 year yield dropped below the 5 year yield. In September of 2000, the yields < 5 years went above the 5-30 year yields... the market dropped like a rockalmost immediatelyafter that. :shock:
- Flat(tening) yields: 1999 shows a very flat yield curve for the most part. There were also a couple of brief inversions in 1998, which happened in the fall of that year.
