Why the stock market is up even with historic job losses

[tsptalk]

Why the stock market is up even with historic job losses

A record number of Americans just lost their job, and yet stocks are moving higher. This seems paradoxical given the economic toll — to say nothing of the emotional toll — on millions of people across the country without a job.

While some say this is further indication that the stock market has become decoupled from reality, others say there are clear reasons why stocks have rebounded, and can continue to move higher.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/08/why-the-market-is-up-even-with-historic-job-losses.html

 

[Bullitt]

Barrons before the report came out. Markets look forward. The consensus was expecting a loss of 22 million.

I get the sense there are people many hoping that this drags on forever.

The Market Moves on—and Up – from Bad News

3.2 million Americans lost their jobs last week and investors were unfazed by the continued carnage. Stocks rose and the Nasdaq Composite Index ended flat for the year so far with a 31% gain in the last six weeks. Why? Well, the bad news has been baked in for a while now.

• The number of weekly initial jobless claims is at historically horrific levels, but it has also been steadily declining since 6.9 million workers lost their jobs in the week ending April 4.

• The Bank of England indicated Thursday that it will provide more economic support, while central banks in Norway and the Czech Republic cut interest rates.

What’s Next: More already priced-in job losses are on the way. The April jobs number will show that 22 million Americans lost their jobs in April, economists expect.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/th...lems-51588938684?mod=HP_DAY_RELATED_5&tesla=y

 

[Bullitt]

From Sentimentrader, speculators are $40 billion of equity index futures net short.

 

[Bullitt]

Time to get back to work.

Apple said it will re-open a handful of U.S retail stores next week, with tight controls on the number of customers in any given location.

The company said Friday that the first stores to reopen will be in Idaho, South Carolina, Alabama, and Alaska. Apple has one store each in Alaska and Idaho, and two each in South Carolina and Alabama. The company has 510 stores overall, including 271 in the U.S.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/ap...h-restrictions-51588969122?refsec=coronavirus

 

[tsptalk]

From Sentimentrader, speculators are $40 billion of equity index futures net short.

Interesting. I decided to look back to 2008, or a prior reading this high, and see what was happening. A little surprising...

 

[exnavyew]

Guess the market has priced in another Great Depression.

 

[Bullitt]

You should email him that chart, he does seem to cherry pick whatever fits his narrative.

Looking at the larger data set, that information was useless at the bottom in 2008.

 

[Bullitt]

It's the FAANG + MSFT!



Regarding sentimentrader, I've previously said:

I subscribed to Jason on and off over the years but I feel the past year his data has been all over the place. The amount of information he puts out can be overwhelming. A few weeks ago he sent out that 50 page sentiment report. For every signal that told me to buy, there was one that said sell. Every one that said sell, it said buy. Great service, but just gave me sensory overload.