9/24/12
Stocks remained in positive territory almost the entire day on Friday until a late sell-off took most of the stock indices into negative territory. The S-fund and I-fund held on to some gains while the Dow, down 17-points, and S&P 500 slipped into negative territory.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="width: 241"]
[TD="align: center"] Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 159"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 0.0036%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 0.07%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -0.01%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 0.20%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 0.67%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
This will be a short commentary as the action has been uneventful to sat the least, and there's not much to talk about. Basically we are in yet another sideways consolidation and while many of us have been expecting a pullback, the pullbacks have been very shallow and, unless we are talking about the Dow Transportation Index, almost non-existent in most stock indices.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Dow Transportation Index is the exception as it is now testing the lower end of its trading range after a sharp 5-day pullback. The only question here is whether we see a breakdown or another trip to the top of the trading channel.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Bonds (via the bond ETF, AGG) found support at the long-term trendline, which was once resistance. This is a bullish sign for bonds, but yields, which move inversely to bond prices, aren't really conforming that.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The yield on the 10-year treasury note looks like it is forming a bullish cup and handle formation and the reversal day at the 20-day EMA last Thursday.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Should the yield move to new highs the F-fund would suffer. But you can see in the above chart that the yield is finding resistance at the 200-day EMA and that would have to be broken before bonds (F-fund) break down. So that support line on the AGG, and the 200-day EMA in the 10-year T-note are what bonds fund investors should be watching this week.
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
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