Warning Signs-

[James48843]

Warning Signs that the economy is possibly in trouble.


Here is the one I saw this morning:

[h=1]U.S. Durable Goods Orders Fall 1.1% in May[/h]Source: The Wall Street Journal.

U.S. Durable Goods Orders Fall 1.1% in May
Decline attributed to decreases in volatile categories of military-aircraft orders and orders for civilian airplanes and parts

By Ben Leubsdorf and Sarah Chaney
June 26, 2017 8:38 a.m. ET

WASHINGTON - Demand for long-lasting factory goods declined in May for the second straight month, a possible sign of softness in the U.S. manufacturing sector.

Orders for durable goodsproducts designed to last at least three years, such as computers and industrial robotsdecreased 1.1% from April to a seasonally adjusted $228.18 billion in May, the Commerce Department said Monday. That was the largest drop in six months.
....


Read more: https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-durable-goods-orders-fall-1-1-in-may-1498480687

That is the second month in a row for durable goods to have fallen.

Have you seen any other economic indicators showing that the economy is slowing down?

 

[James48843]

Auto Sales slipping too:

U.S. auto sales seen down 2 percent in June: JD Power and LMC


By Nick Carey | DETROIT

U.S. auto sales in June likely fell 2 percent from a year earlier despite large discounts for consumers, presenting a fresh sign that automakers are heading into a downturn, industry consultants J.D. Power and LMC Automotive said on Monday.

LMC also cut its full-year 2017 forecast for new vehicle sales for the third consecutive month, to 17.1 million units from its previous forecast of 17.2 million.

June U.S. new vehicle sales will be about 1.48 million units, a drop of 2 percent from 1.51 million units a year earlier, the consultancies said.

The forecast was based on the first 15 selling days of the month. Automakers will release June U.S. sales results on July 3.

The seasonally adjusted annualized rate for the month will be 16.5 million vehicles, down nearly 2 percent from 16.8 million units in the same month in 2016.

Keep your eye on auto sales over the next several months. Lower sales could signal bad news for the economy overall.

 

[tsptalk]

I think the 2.1% 10-year Treasury is a possible sign, but that could just be a sign of low inflation - which is also not great tor the economy.

The price of oil falling. That could be supply issues rather than demand, but still.

The price of copper was falling for months, but showing some signs of life recently.

The employment numbers continue to be very good, but we know that over the years many of the jobs have been very low paying.

 

[burrocrat]

Have you seen any other economic indicators showing that the economy is slowing down?

no, but after $20 trillion dollars, 8 of which is new debt, i see the fed is raising rates after a decade of inaction. don't fight the fed. timing suspect, results undeniable.

 

[tsptalk]

Warning Signs that the economy is possibly in trouble.

Here is the one I saw this morning:
...

That is the second month in a row for durable goods to have fallen.

Have you seen any other economic indicators showing that the economy is slowing down?

I think this thread will likely end up in the political area, because while this is a good subject for us, we all know what my good friend James is doing here. :cheesy: oke:


Why Americans Feel So Good About a Mediocre Economy

There's a divergence between "soft" measures of sentiment and "hard" data. Partisan leanings offer an explanation.

One big source of systematic error is partisanship. It’s well known that the party of the president has a dramatic effect on people’s views of the economy. Before the election in November, Democrats held a much more favorable view of the economy than did Republicans; after Trump won, that gap promptly flipped. Republicans now claim to be extremely confident about the economy, while Democrats report pessimism.

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/arti...ericans-feel-so-good-about-a-mediocre-economy

 

[FireWeatherMet]

As a frequent critic of "you know who" I would say any big slowdown and possible Recession would not be surprising, nor necessarily the fault of who is in the WH.

After 8 years since the end of the last Recession, we are at a point in the cycle where it actually could slow down a bit. I think its important that we all be able to talk about some early warning signs without getting too partisan.

So I vote for keeping this thread open to all, for now.
There are many * threads where we could vent on whose fault any slowdown might be.

 

[PessOptimist]

As a frequent critic of "you know who" I would say any big slowdown and possible Recession would not be surprising, nor necessarily the fault of who is in the WH. [snip]

FWM, did you really write that? Yeah I hope it stays out of the * threads.

PO

 

[evilanne]

I think the 2.1% 10-year Treasury is a possible sign, but that could just be a sign of low inflation - which is also not great tor the economy.

I think one thing to watch is how the Fed actually reduces their bond holdings/balance sheet....if they are not careful there could be an adverse market reaction.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

[h=1]U.S. stock market 'running on fumes,' Fed policymaker says[/h]https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-stock-market-running-fumes-162934869.html

 

[tsptalk]

I know this is for warning signs so it may not belong, but the Chicago PMI came in at 65.7 this morning, beating the 57.8 consensus estimates and last month's number of 59.4. That's a pretty good number, but if you notice the chart on that site (copied below and I updated with the new number with red arrow), it shows that it doesn't tend to get much higher than that, so is this a case of nowhere left to go but down?

https://www.briefing.com/Investor/Calendars/Economic/Releases/chi.htm

(https://www.briefing.com/investor/calendars/economic/2017/06/26-30)

 

[Tsunami]

A warning sign from Tom McClellan:

Treasury-Bund Spread Gives Early Warning of the End - Free Weekly Technical Analysis Chart - McClellan Financial

 

[James48843]

After Years of Growth, Automakers Are Cutting U.S. Jobs

Source: MSN/NY Times

DETROIT — After a prolonged recovery that culminated in two years of record sales, the American auto industry is slowing down, with fewer buyers in dealer showrooms and fewer workers on the factory floor.

Automakers said this week that sales dropped in June for a sixth consecutive month, falling by 3 percent from a year ago, a trend that analysts do not see letting up anytime soon. And as demand falls, there is less work in the nation’s auto-assembly plants — primarily those that build traditional passenger cars. Last year, those plants hit a peak of 211,000 workers, a 55 percent increase since the depths of the recession in 2009. That figure has dropped by more than 2 percent so far this year, to 206,000 workers in April, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and could shrink further as sales continue to fall.

“There’s been a consistent reduction in plant output in the last six months, and what is ahead in the next six months could be pretty startling,” said Ron Harbour, an auto manufacturing expert at the consulting firm Oliver Wyman.

The decline signals at least a pause in Detroit’s resurgence from the dark days of the financial crisis, which General Motors and Chrysler survived only through bankruptcy and bailouts. It’s happening despite President Trump’s promises to pressure automakers to save and create good-paying American factory jobs.

Read more: After Years of Growth, Automakers Are Cutting U.S. Jobs

More cuts in manufacturing. Another sign.

 

[tsptalk]

This guy did a quick about face... which is legal.

June 30...

A warning sign from Tom McClellan:

Treasury-Bund Spread Gives Early Warning of the End - Free Weekly Technical Analysis Chart - McClellan Financial

And a few months from now, we should see a major price top for the stock market, which the current divergence is just now starting to foretell.

Tom McClellan
Editor, The McClellan Market Report

July 3...

http://www.cnbc.com/video/2017/07/03/we-still-have-a-year-for-the-market-rally-tom-mcclellan.html

We still have a year for the market rally: Tom McClellan

Monday, 3 Jul 2017 | 1:11 PM ET

Tom McClellan, editor of the McClellan Market Report, discusses why he's bullish on the markets going into the second half.

 

[pmaloney]

Finally someone saying something positive. :smile:

 

[Tsunami]

https://northmantrader.com/2017/07/16/july-macro-charts/

 

[James48843]

Warning: I just got on an elevator in New Orleans. There were two guys on the elevator. They were both talking about the stock market, and how they Keep putting money in it, and it keeps going up, and up.


I have seen that kind of conversation, by two complete strangers, twice before in my life.

The first time was about a week before the big crash in 1987.

The second time was back in the summer of 2008- a month before things went south.


I'm telling ya- there is your sign..... I just saw it on an elevator in New Orleans.

My Jambalaya is screaming a warning sign....

Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums

 

[alevin]

Sounds like when shoeshine boys were giving out stock tips to customers right before the Great Crash of 29.

 

[tsptalk]

Warning: I just got on an elevator in New Orleans. There were two guys on the elevator. They were both talking about the stick market, and how they Keep putting money in it, and it keeps going up, and up.


I have seen that kind of conversation, by two complete strangers, twice before in my life.

The first time was about a week before the big crash in 1987.

The second time was back in the summer of 2008- a month before things went south.


I'm telling ya- there is your sign..... I just saw it on an elevator in New Orleans.

That is a good tell. Let me know if you hear anybody talking bitcoin.