05/30/13
Stocks gave back Tuesday's 106-point gain yesterday as the Dow lost 107-points yesterday. Not to be outdone, both the S&P 500 (C-fund) and the small caps (S-fund) fell almost exactly the same percentage as they lost on Tuesday.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 151"]
[TR]
[TD]G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.0035%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.01%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.69%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.90%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.28%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]More returns[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
S&P 500 broke below the lower support line but found support at the 20-day EMA. The bullish case is that the S&P finished well off its lows creating what can be considered a positive reversal day. After all the negative reversal formations we saw on Tuesday, and the negative outside reversal day last week, it's clear volatility is picking up again after several weeks of a very low volatility rally.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
You can see the change in volatility very well on the Russell 2000 ETF...
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
I never did mention the results of last week's AAII Investor Sentiment Survey (not our survey). It was taken on Wednesday of last week and if you recall, the market peaked last Wednesday (5/22) morning, just before the negative outside reversal day, and the AAII survey saw the fewest percentage of bears (21.6%) since early 2012.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com, analysis by TSP Talk
There have been very few weeks since mid-2007 that have had bearish readings this low. Because of the negative reversal outside day late Wednesday and the selloff on Thursday last week, our TSP Talk survey, which is taken on Thursdays, saw a bearish reading of 48%. What a difference in sentiment a day made for investors.
Here is the seasonality chart for June going back to 1950. There are some sore red thumbs on the chart, but also some positive patches.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The 7 - 10 year Treasury ETF is down testing the lower end of its year long trading channel with only about 2 weeks over that time trading outside of that range.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Many are calling for the end of the long bull market in the bond market, and even if that is true, perhaps bonds are due for a little short-term relief rally here at support.
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Stocks gave back Tuesday's 106-point gain yesterday as the Dow lost 107-points yesterday. Not to be outdone, both the S&P 500 (C-fund) and the small caps (S-fund) fell almost exactly the same percentage as they lost on Tuesday.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[TD="align: center"]Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 151"]
[TR]
[TD]G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.0035%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.01%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.69%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.90%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.28%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]More returns[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
S&P 500 broke below the lower support line but found support at the 20-day EMA. The bullish case is that the S&P finished well off its lows creating what can be considered a positive reversal day. After all the negative reversal formations we saw on Tuesday, and the negative outside reversal day last week, it's clear volatility is picking up again after several weeks of a very low volatility rally.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
You can see the change in volatility very well on the Russell 2000 ETF...
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
I never did mention the results of last week's AAII Investor Sentiment Survey (not our survey). It was taken on Wednesday of last week and if you recall, the market peaked last Wednesday (5/22) morning, just before the negative outside reversal day, and the AAII survey saw the fewest percentage of bears (21.6%) since early 2012.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com, analysis by TSP Talk
There have been very few weeks since mid-2007 that have had bearish readings this low. Because of the negative reversal outside day late Wednesday and the selloff on Thursday last week, our TSP Talk survey, which is taken on Thursdays, saw a bearish reading of 48%. What a difference in sentiment a day made for investors.
Here is the seasonality chart for June going back to 1950. There are some sore red thumbs on the chart, but also some positive patches.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The 7 - 10 year Treasury ETF is down testing the lower end of its year long trading channel with only about 2 weeks over that time trading outside of that range.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Many are calling for the end of the long bull market in the bond market, and even if that is true, perhaps bonds are due for a little short-term relief rally here at support.
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
