10/25/11
The bulls remained in charge yesterday as they were able to take the indices up again despite the extended overbought conditions. The Dow closed off the highs but did end the day up another 104-points.
For the TSP, the C-fund was up 1.29% yesterday, the S-fund gained 3.04%, the I-fund made 1.51%, and the F-fund (bonds) fell 0.04%.
The S&P 500 seems to be pulling another September of 2010 when it ran up from September 1st into mid-November in 2010, before any meaningful pullback. With one more week to go, October 2011 seems to be copying that action.
You can see how overbought / extended some indicators are. Yes, we are due a for some kind of pullback - but the question is will a pullback give those with cash a good opportunity to buy, or will they have to chase?
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Part of the reason for the rally is the optimism out of Europe, which is having the effect of weakening our dollar, which helps the value of anything traded in dollars, which is obviously what we use to buy and sell our stocks in. Stocks, gold, oil, other commodities - all up, up, up.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
You can see that we had a recent bear flag break down in the dollar, and that could lead to further weakness. Also, the technical damage of the dollar breaking below the 20, 50, and 200-day EMA's in the last couple of days doesn't help. It seems to be back within the May through September trading range.
Earnings were mixed after the close yesterday but the big news is still coming out of Europe and with optimism getting quite high, we could be due for a sell the news pullback this week.
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
The bulls remained in charge yesterday as they were able to take the indices up again despite the extended overbought conditions. The Dow closed off the highs but did end the day up another 104-points.
For the TSP, the C-fund was up 1.29% yesterday, the S-fund gained 3.04%, the I-fund made 1.51%, and the F-fund (bonds) fell 0.04%.
The S&P 500 seems to be pulling another September of 2010 when it ran up from September 1st into mid-November in 2010, before any meaningful pullback. With one more week to go, October 2011 seems to be copying that action.
You can see how overbought / extended some indicators are. Yes, we are due a for some kind of pullback - but the question is will a pullback give those with cash a good opportunity to buy, or will they have to chase?
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Part of the reason for the rally is the optimism out of Europe, which is having the effect of weakening our dollar, which helps the value of anything traded in dollars, which is obviously what we use to buy and sell our stocks in. Stocks, gold, oil, other commodities - all up, up, up.
You can see that we had a recent bear flag break down in the dollar, and that could lead to further weakness. Also, the technical damage of the dollar breaking below the 20, 50, and 200-day EMA's in the last couple of days doesn't help. It seems to be back within the May through September trading range.
Earnings were mixed after the close yesterday but the big news is still coming out of Europe and with optimism getting quite high, we could be due for a sell the news pullback this week.
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
