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tsptalk's Market Talk
- Thread starter tsptalk
- Start date
- Reaction score
- 3,395
Stocks are trying to rally on the decline in oil prices this morning, but oil is still near $105 a barrel, and there is still the threat of an end to the ceasefire if a deal is not made soon.
Yields were coming down in early trading, but they are bouncing right back up, nearly erasing the opening gains.
The dollar is down, trying to fill in Friday's gap, but it too is off its lows, but the 0.23% decline is giving the I-fund an advantage this morning.
Nvidia earnings come out after the bell on Wednesday so there is some trading left before then. Their chart looks good but semis have already gone parabolic, so they better produce numbers that are very impressive to keep the party going.
Yields were coming down in early trading, but they are bouncing right back up, nearly erasing the opening gains.
The dollar is down, trying to fill in Friday's gap, but it too is off its lows, but the 0.23% decline is giving the I-fund an advantage this morning.
Nvidia earnings come out after the bell on Wednesday so there is some trading left before then. Their chart looks good but semis have already gone parabolic, so they better produce numbers that are very impressive to keep the party going.
- Reaction score
- 3,395
The price of oil is down slightly this morning, but yields are not. At 5.19%, the 30-year Treasury yield hit a 19 year high this morning.
The dollar is also up and this combination is causing the higher beta TSP funds, I-fund and S-fund, to lag as both are down 1.1% as of 10:30 AM ET.
The S-fund is now convincingly below the support of the February peak.
The tech heavy Nasdaq is lagging as well with the semiconductors down for a 3rrd straight day in early trading. Gold, silver and bitcoin are all down as well.
The dollar is also up and this combination is causing the higher beta TSP funds, I-fund and S-fund, to lag as both are down 1.1% as of 10:30 AM ET.
The S-fund is now convincingly below the support of the February peak.
The tech heavy Nasdaq is lagging as well with the semiconductors down for a 3rrd straight day in early trading. Gold, silver and bitcoin are all down as well.
- Reaction score
- 3,395
After a slow start, the the morning rebound is picking up steam with small caps and tech leading the way.
We have yields and the price of oil easing off their recent highs, opening the door for a rebound in the stock market after the three day sell off.
Interest rate sensitive small caps / S-fund are leading the way, and a dip in the dollar has the I-fund sporting a 1% gain this morning.
Is this a bullish buzz before Nvidia reports earnings after the bell, or a sucker rally that may get sold on any bad report?
We have yields and the price of oil easing off their recent highs, opening the door for a rebound in the stock market after the three day sell off.
Interest rate sensitive small caps / S-fund are leading the way, and a dip in the dollar has the I-fund sporting a 1% gain this morning.
Is this a bullish buzz before Nvidia reports earnings after the bell, or a sucker rally that may get sold on any bad report?
- Reaction score
- 3,395
Stocks are wobbling, but hanging tough, after last night's big earnings report from Nvidia. Investors are trying to determine how much of their great numbers has been priced in - not only to the Nvidia share price, but the rest of the A-I trade.
We do have a three day weekend coming up and there's always the possibility that what we're seeing is part of a pre-holiday reversal. But what is reversing - the pullback off last week's highs, or yesterday's rally?
Oil and yields are up today, although off their highs. This is following the decline in both yesterday. Again, holiday reversals?
We do have a three day weekend coming up and there's always the possibility that what we're seeing is part of a pre-holiday reversal. But what is reversing - the pullback off last week's highs, or yesterday's rally?
Oil and yields are up today, although off their highs. This is following the decline in both yesterday. Again, holiday reversals?
- Reaction score
- 3,395
More pre-holiday trading, which will likely be on light volume.
We had a gap up open, and since then the indices have been doing typical backing and filling of the gap. I suspect dip buyers will jump in before the end of the day as the Friday before Memorial Day weekend has a bullish record, but the Tuesday after is more bearish.
Yields and oil opened lower but they are battling back, adding to the pullback in stocks, but again, normal action of backing a filling of the opening direction. The 10-year is flirting with filling that open gap.
Oil has support in this area. One thing to watch for is that pennant formations can give us a fake out in one direction, then snap back in the other before the "real" breakout occurs. I don't know why that happens, but it's a thing. It usually occurs near the 3/4 area of the pennant, so we may be a little past that window already.
We had a gap up open, and since then the indices have been doing typical backing and filling of the gap. I suspect dip buyers will jump in before the end of the day as the Friday before Memorial Day weekend has a bullish record, but the Tuesday after is more bearish.
Yields and oil opened lower but they are battling back, adding to the pullback in stocks, but again, normal action of backing a filling of the opening direction. The 10-year is flirting with filling that open gap.
Oil has support in this area. One thing to watch for is that pennant formations can give us a fake out in one direction, then snap back in the other before the "real" breakout occurs. I don't know why that happens, but it's a thing. It usually occurs near the 3/4 area of the pennant, so we may be a little past that window already.
- Reaction score
- 3,395
Yields and oil are falling. Stocks are rising. See you tomorrow! 
Kidding, but that's the formula that is still working.
Despite some muddled headlines regarding Iran, the negotiations, and the Straight of Hormuz, yields, the price of oil, and the stock market are all acting as if massive progress is being made. From my untrained eye, it doesn't seem like Iran and the US will agree on much of anything.
Regardless, yields are down, but the 10-year Yield is still filling the open gap, and oil is down and, as I mentioned in today's Market Commentary, the pennant formations have some quirks that could be giving us fake out this morning.
Kidding, but that's the formula that is still working.
Despite some muddled headlines regarding Iran, the negotiations, and the Straight of Hormuz, yields, the price of oil, and the stock market are all acting as if massive progress is being made. From my untrained eye, it doesn't seem like Iran and the US will agree on much of anything.
Regardless, yields are down, but the 10-year Yield is still filling the open gap, and oil is down and, as I mentioned in today's Market Commentary, the pennant formations have some quirks that could be giving us fake out this morning.
- Reaction score
- 3,395
We have oil down sharply again after more "noise" out of the Middle East and the Straight of Hormuz. I say noise because it seems to change almost hourly, but the last story reported that "Iran agreement would restore Hormuz traffic in one month."
The Dow is up big but the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are near the flat line as it digests the recent gains. Small caps are also flat.
The Semiconductor Index is down 2%, putting pressure on the Nasdaq, but this may be a much needed rest after the recent parabolic move higher.
The 10-year Treasury Yield is down slightly and completed the gap fill from May 15. There's a little room below before testing the 50-day average and the rising support line, but the bottom of this gap could also be an area where yields find support.
Bitcoin, gold and silver are down this morning.
The Dow is up big but the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are near the flat line as it digests the recent gains. Small caps are also flat.
The Semiconductor Index is down 2%, putting pressure on the Nasdaq, but this may be a much needed rest after the recent parabolic move higher.
The 10-year Treasury Yield is down slightly and completed the gap fill from May 15. There's a little room below before testing the 50-day average and the rising support line, but the bottom of this gap could also be an area where yields find support.
Bitcoin, gold and silver are down this morning.
- Reaction score
- 3,395
S&P 500 rises on report negotiators have reached deal to extend Iran ceasefire, but traders wary: Live updates
S&P 500 rises on report negotiators have reached deal to extend Iran ceasefire, but traders wary: Live updates
The latest inflation data came in as expected, relieving some fears of persistent inflation, even as oil prices rose.
- Reaction score
- 3,395
Inflation data came in inline with estimates this morning, Q1 GDP was better than expected, and Weekly Jobless Claims were also inline but slightly higher than last week.
As my prior posts said, it was an increase in the price of oil that had stocks lower to start the day, but another headline of a possible deal with Iran, although still thing concrete, sent oil lower and stocks back up.
It's going to be one of those kinds of days where we are all following the headlines and the price of oil.
As my prior posts said, it was an increase in the price of oil that had stocks lower to start the day, but another headline of a possible deal with Iran, although still thing concrete, sent oil lower and stocks back up.
It's going to be one of those kinds of days where we are all following the headlines and the price of oil.
- Reaction score
- 3,395
Another good month for the stock market will be coming to an end today as the rebound off the March lows continues. We got a strong Chicago PMI manufacturing report this morning, the highest since March of 2022, and while bond yields are flat, they came off the lows after that report.
Stocks are mixed with Dow up 200 points at the moment, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq gave back some morning gains. Small caps are lagging with a loss of over 1%.
Oil is down slightly but holding above the April lows.
Historically June is a mediocre month for the S&P 500 at best. It can be choppy in the first half of the month, but it gets weaker in the latter half.
Source: https://sentimentrader.com/
Stocks are mixed with Dow up 200 points at the moment, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq gave back some morning gains. Small caps are lagging with a loss of over 1%.
Oil is down slightly but holding above the April lows.
Historically June is a mediocre month for the S&P 500 at best. It can be choppy in the first half of the month, but it gets weaker in the latter half.
Source: https://sentimentrader.com/
- Reaction score
- 3,395
The stock market is down but holding up better than I would have expected considering that the price of oil and bond yields are soaring this morning after trouble with the ceasefire negotiations.
The charts have been trying to tell us that this was a possibility, but both took their time bouncing off of support. This morning they did so.
The stock market indices are struggling but don't seem nearly as concerned yet, to this hawkish development with the ceasefire negotiations.
Crypto and the precious metals are mostly down today.
The charts have been trying to tell us that this was a possibility, but both took their time bouncing off of support. This morning they did so.
The stock market indices are struggling but don't seem nearly as concerned yet, to this hawkish development with the ceasefire negotiations.
Crypto and the precious metals are mostly down today.
- Reaction score
- 3,395
I think one thing that is keeping the indices up, despite what's happening in bonds and oil, is that it is June 1. New month, new money coming in.
Turnaround Tuesday? We'll see.
source: www.sentimentrader.com
Turnaround Tuesday? We'll see.
source: www.sentimentrader.com
- Reaction score
- 3,395
Yields are down this morning but near their highs of the day after the JOLTS data. The 4.4% area on the 10-year is still key support.
Oil is is digesting Monday's gains and down slightly with the chaotic negotiations still up in the air.
Semis are strong helping tech lead, and small caps are bouncing back from Monday's loss.
The market feels stuck, not sure which way to go this morning. Jobs report on on Friday.
Oil is is digesting Monday's gains and down slightly with the chaotic negotiations still up in the air.
Semis are strong helping tech lead, and small caps are bouncing back from Monday's loss.
The market feels stuck, not sure which way to go this morning. Jobs report on on Friday.
- Reaction score
- 3,395
Escalated tensions with Iran has oil up near 95 a barrel and yields are also up after some strong jobs and ISM Services data, and that's putting pressure on the stock market, which has been a runaway train for several weeks now.
Small caps were down sharply after the opening bell, about 1.2%, but they are battling back already. It may be too early for a bounce back so watch for the bears to make another move later today,
.
And of course yields will play into the strength of the small caps.
Gold, silver, and bitcoin are all down again this morning.
Small caps were down sharply after the opening bell, about 1.2%, but they are battling back already. It may be too early for a bounce back so watch for the bears to make another move later today,
.And of course yields will play into the strength of the small caps.
Gold, silver, and bitcoin are all down again this morning.
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