TSPNotley
8/12/2011: 11:45 AM: I have remained in G for over a month and did not enter the market all of July due to risk beyond relative gain. However, I did enter on Monday by noon during the 6% fall of the S&P 500 with a rising VIX the prior 3-4 days approaching 40 by noon. All other indicators were very oversold and I risked that the Vix would approach 50 which frequently was the flip point when a rally would begin. [I usually use the RSI and Stochastics but they only work best with less volatile markets of a 5% swing.] I found a double lows at 1119 over 3 days [Monday - Wednesday] with decreasing volume on the second with a good rise Thursday providing confirmation of a double bottom by definition. [Fear and greed forget definitions at times.]
Four Euro nations have instituted a ban on short selling with several banks being bailed out.
August: A bearish month except in third year of Democratic 1st term [Clinton and Kennedy], however, the Tea-party has politically assassinated Obama at the debt ceiling. Bear market: Highest high in recent long rally: 4/31/11: which is declining 3.5 months which is beyond 2 months by definition. Still bullish as SMA: 50 day is still over 200 day].
Smart money: Moderately moving into equities: Bullish.
Friday:
*Price: 3 day increase of G/S/C: 3.3%
*RSI: C fund [3 month] 38.4: rising on the side of increasing pressure to buy.
Stochastics [3 month]: Open: rising to 25 percentile with no divergence [parallel]; Suggesting: further rise for 0-2 market days.
*Simple MA-Daily [3 month]: Rising though below 200 and 50 day SMA .
*MACD Daily [3 month]: Bullish and Rising, Divergence: oversold and modestly rising.
*Momentum: Below median and rising to 91%.
*Dollar: Volatile of late with but neutral US Dollar RSI: 50 and 0.1% fall.
Conclusion: Indicators: gradual nominally bullish today, weekend with unstable European Financials; Smart money modestly engaged. Prior similar C fund market history in 2010 has potential to turn bearish mid next week at RSI 50% [1230.]
Therefore: Modestly Bullish Friday with lower VIX. Probable fractional gain. Limited guarantee of future rise. I took take gains at 60% expected rise as planned for volatile market and current retirement. Reached monthly goal. Back to G fund. Final gain of 3.47%.
8/12/2011: 11:45 AM: I have remained in G for over a month and did not enter the market all of July due to risk beyond relative gain. However, I did enter on Monday by noon during the 6% fall of the S&P 500 with a rising VIX the prior 3-4 days approaching 40 by noon. All other indicators were very oversold and I risked that the Vix would approach 50 which frequently was the flip point when a rally would begin. [I usually use the RSI and Stochastics but they only work best with less volatile markets of a 5% swing.] I found a double lows at 1119 over 3 days [Monday - Wednesday] with decreasing volume on the second with a good rise Thursday providing confirmation of a double bottom by definition. [Fear and greed forget definitions at times.]
Four Euro nations have instituted a ban on short selling with several banks being bailed out.
August: A bearish month except in third year of Democratic 1st term [Clinton and Kennedy], however, the Tea-party has politically assassinated Obama at the debt ceiling. Bear market: Highest high in recent long rally: 4/31/11: which is declining 3.5 months which is beyond 2 months by definition. Still bullish as SMA: 50 day is still over 200 day].
Smart money: Moderately moving into equities: Bullish.
Friday:
*Price: 3 day increase of G/S/C: 3.3%
*RSI: C fund [3 month] 38.4: rising on the side of increasing pressure to buy.
Stochastics [3 month]: Open: rising to 25 percentile with no divergence [parallel]; Suggesting: further rise for 0-2 market days.
*Simple MA-Daily [3 month]: Rising though below 200 and 50 day SMA .
*MACD Daily [3 month]: Bullish and Rising, Divergence: oversold and modestly rising.
*Momentum: Below median and rising to 91%.
*Dollar: Volatile of late with but neutral US Dollar RSI: 50 and 0.1% fall.
Conclusion: Indicators: gradual nominally bullish today, weekend with unstable European Financials; Smart money modestly engaged. Prior similar C fund market history in 2010 has potential to turn bearish mid next week at RSI 50% [1230.]
Therefore: Modestly Bullish Friday with lower VIX. Probable fractional gain. Limited guarantee of future rise. I took take gains at 60% expected rise as planned for volatile market and current retirement. Reached monthly goal. Back to G fund. Final gain of 3.47%.
