TSP website? View My Rate of Return as of:

[Aviator_Guy]

Both of my sons have TSP accounts, the oldest one serves with the USAF reserves and the other is an Air Traffic Controller. My oldest son was visiting me on Thanksgiving and told me about a TSP website feature that I was unaware of. He told me you can check true performance on your account balance page on a link called “12-Month Personal Rate of Return”. When I clicked on the link it said mine was 35% and I dismissed it. I thought it must be counting my catch up funds or the TSP matching funds.

I now think it might actually be accurate in that when I clicked on the link today, it said my 12 month rate of return is 29.92% which is pretty close to what I’m tracking. If this link truly shows the participant an accurate 12 month rate of return (interest only) this would be a very VERY useful feature. As it will show you your true performance over the last 12 months. I will click on this link in the morning on the first trading day of 2011 and if its close to the TSPTALK, I will know for sure.

Is this an accurate snapshot of your last 12 month rate of return (interest only)? If so, I would recommend the TSP site add a link that would allow the participant to click on a new TSP link called, “View my Rate of Return as of”... That would very useful tool for showing you performance over a longer period of time. That way, maybe I will stop beating myself up for all the money I lost in 2008. I guess they could pay for the change to their site with all the money they saved from taking away my unlimited IFT’s. LOL

 

[Frixxxx]

I've been posting my Rate of Return on my talk thread.......

It is very accurate and I love it!

I sent in an e-mail requesting the same thing for "as of" but it has fallen on deaf ears or empty pocket books!

 

[tsptalk]

More: http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=7253

 

[jimijr]

After 24 years in the TSP my average rate of return is ~6%.

This can be estimated using the first three terms of a Taylor Series expansion of (1+x)^N = 1+Nx/1!+(N^2)(x^2)/2!
Set this quantity equal to R (= twice the ratio of your balance divided by total contributions.)
Solve the polynomial for X using the quadratic formula after placing it in standard form.

Or maybe you are lucky enough to have a calculator with a y^x key. In my case R=4 and (1.06)^24 = 4.

 

[burrocrat]

wow, jimijr, now i got a headache this big and it's got y^x written all over it.

but bohgie has some good info on this, i got quicken to track verify but fell off the wagon. he can explain some of the ways to double-check it if you have the time and software available.

there were some good threads about spreadsheets around this time last year, and also on the tracker page there are utilities you can download and use too, several good ones there.

for a while mine was saying huge double digits but i chalked that up to bull market run and tsp loan payment going back in, now it is within less than one percent of what my tracker number shows. so i'm not sure how it works. but fairly close i think.

 

[Aviator_Guy]

The one thing I like about TSPTALK is that we have a tremendous amount of well informed participants who are willing to share it with the others, Thanks!!!!!

 

[nnuut]

The one thing I like about TSPTALK is that we have a tremendous amount of well informed participants who are willing to share it with the others, Thanks!!!!!

You can say that again, It's a good place to be.

 

[burrocrat]

I've been posting my Rate of Return on my talk thread.......

It is very accurate and I love it!

I sent in an e-mail requesting the same thing for "as of" but it has fallen on deaf ears or empty pocket books!

(as of 12/07) from tsp.gov website found below current balance and the pie charts link: 12-Month Personal Rate of Return:
7.25%


(as of 12/08) from the tsp tracker, not a direct quote wouldn't paste right:
#176 - 8.45% - +0.14%

has anybody made an 'as of' thread yet? i'll play.

 

[jimijr]

The question is, if you had been putting your contributions into a saving account, what rate of interest would it need to pay in order to have your present balance?

Since I have 24 years of service, Year 1 conts are "on deposit" for 24 years, Y2 for 23 years, Y3 for 22 years, ... , Y23 for 2 years, Y24 for 1 year. So we end up with a summation with recursion relation Ci(1+x)^(25-i), i=1 to 24. A spreadsheet could do it.

But physicists are good estimators. You can estimate this by taking the "average" contribution and putting it on deposit for the total time. This average is half the total contributions, so the summation collapses to the single term (C/2)(1+x)^24.

Here you can invoke the Law Of 72. Since my total conts are equal to half my balance, C/2 is 1/4th and we want x such that (1+x)^24 =4, or two doublings in 24 years. Since 6% doubles every 12 years (72/6=12), x = 0.06 in my case. This calculation includes matching funds as earnings.

There are other weathermen on this board; they've had plenty of math. A second way to estimate it is to take the total conts and put them on deposit for the average time span, 12 years, or (1+x)^12 = 2. Again, x=0.06.

Or you could expand this to 1 + 12x +72x^2 = 2, using the first few terms of a Taylor's Series, yielding the polynomial x^2 + x/6 - 1/72 = 0 which can be solved using the quadratic equation which we all learned in 9th grade. Discard the negative root. [x=(minus .167/2) + (1/2)(.0838)^(1/2) ==> x = (.289-.167)/2 = .061 = 6.1%]

 

[Frixxxx]

......Here you can invoke the Law Of 72.........

Be careful invoking this law......It may involve interest that the government can tax at a later date!

I want to work with you jimijr!!!!

You got any openings down there a computer scientist could fit into?

 

[jimijr]

In fact, we have an IT slot opening in January. The PD is just about worked out, look for it soon on USAJOBS. It will be a GS 13 but not a met-slot so you'd be in the Miami Locality and not get the SSR for mets.

I dunno, but for me these kinds of calculations are 2nd nature, fun practical math. And for me 6% compounded is quite acceptable. If I could get 6% today, on top of pension and supplement, I could live on it.