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Stocks were down early this week ahead of the CPI report on Thursday, that's where things got interesting. The CPI came in a slightly more than expected remaining over 8% year-over-year. This more than solidified at least a 0.75% rate increase in the November FOMC meeting. But the more interesting part is the market action the report sparked. Stock indices plummeted at the open, the S&P 500 opened down 1.58%, but buyers swarmed in for the rest of the day and those losses were soon erased and the S&P 500 carried on accumulating a 2.61% gain on the day. But of course, this wild day was in the midst of a bear market, so the gains were lost on the closing day of the week.
All the TSP funds were down for the week and the trend has been down for more than two months now. One hope for the bulls who are left is earnings season, however banks started to report earnings this week with mostly positive numbers and the overall market did not rejoice. Days like Thursday make trading the TSP frustrating. By the time you the deadline hits at noon ET the market has no resemblance to where the price you get at the close. That's why we're not day traders but swing traders. We have to look at days in groups for entry and exit opportunities. Lately the mantra seems to be to take selling opportunities.
This week's losses have brought the TSP stock funds to at or around even for October. We still have half the month left; will earnings spark new life into buyers that have shown they are still around?
Keeping this week short with the charts but I appreciate anyone who takes the time to read this blog each week!
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Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending October 14:
SPY's (S&P 500 / C-fund) is trending down and the resistance line proved to be strong this week. The falling resistance below is about even with the 20-day EMA so maybe that's the real resistance. The C-fund was down 1.53% for the week following a 2.36% loss on Friday alone.
The Dow Completion Index (S-fund) and SPY have a similar resistance, but DWCPF seems to be flattening out the past couple weeks at the lows, aside from Thursdays open. There is an open gap left above that has landed on the other side of resistance. Bulls will hope for earnings season to turn this index around. The S-fund lagged the TSP funds this week with a loss of 2.76% which were its losses on Friday.
Good luck and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at the Market Comments page. If you need more help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our Premium Services can help.
Thomas A Crowley
wwww.tsptalk.com
Last Look Report
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The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
