A parade of economic data and bank earnings catalyzed the price movement this week. The first four days of the week brought negative returns for the TSP stocks, some selling was sparked by the higher-than-expected Consumer Price Index and weak profits from JP Morgan. That included Thursday where stock indices opened at their lowest price in July, but shortly after dip buyers sparked a rally that would erase most of Thursday's early gains and provide momentum that led to gains Friday to alleviate some of the damage of the week.
Friday's gains were helped by the momentum of Thursday's rebound, but the news headlines countered what had shied buyers in the first four days of the week. Retail sales had unexpectedly risen in June, consumer inflation expectations dropped, and Citigroup outperformed their profit expectations. Option expirations may have amplified the momentum.
The TSP charts have been oscillating in a price range for nearly a month and it seems that range is getting tighter. The bulls want to reverse the momentum of the first half of 2022 and of course the bears expect it to continue. Expectations of a recession drove the selling pressure that plagued the first half of the year, but the jobs market has held strong, and the recent retail spending has remained steady despite rising inflation. So that argument for the bulls right now is inflation has peaked and the economic contractions will be kept to a minimum.
More earnings will be pouring in next week for investors to analyze. Investors also have the FOMC meeting at the end of the July on their calendar.
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Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending July 15:
SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) finished the previous week above its 20-day EMA but spent the majority of this week below it. Prices slipped for SPY for four days to start the week which was the fifth straight day of loss for the C-fund. The ETF gapped up slightly Friday and the price rose back above the 20-day EMA to close for the week. That left the C-fund with a loss of 0.91% for the week.
The Dow Completion Index (S-fund) also ended the previous week above its 20-day EMA but unlike SPY was unable to end the week above. Small caps lagged for the week but the initial deep losses were more than cut in half after a 2.18% rally on Friday that cut the S-fund's losses to 1.85% for the week.
EFA's (EAFE Index / I-fund) may have outperformed the S-fund but its chart has the most technical trouble. EFA has not been above its 20-day EMA since early June and has a falling trading channel nearly a month old. The I-fund fell 1.50% for the week.
BND (Bonds / F-fund) was the winner for the week among the TSP funds. The ETF is trading between its 20 and 50-day EMAs and this week it ended at the 50-day EMA. The F-fund gained 0.89% this week, a counter to the previous week's 0.92% loss.
Good luck and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at the Market Comments page. If you need more help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our Premium Services can help.
Thomas A Crowley
wwww.tsptalk.com
Last Look Report
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The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
