Stocks began the new week with strength before selling off Tuesday and Wednesday to end the three-week streak of gains for the U.S. TSP stock funds. The bulls fought back late in the week to stabilize prices to a tighter trading range. It seemed possible mid-week that stocks were on track to give back the gains of the last few weeks and descend towards the March lows. But the bulls are still here, although they are facing head winds.
The greatest obstacle this week for would be buyers was the release of the Fed minutes from the previous March FOMC meeting as well as hawkish Fed members speaking publicly. The Federal Reserve is set on more monetary tightening on top of their campaign to increase borrowing costs. The Federal Reserve would like to wind down nearly a trillion dollars in assets this year, further pulling cash out of the economy in attempts to slow inflation. The Fed has become unconcerned about the market, and it is growing clearer that their action may cost the U.S. economy a recession if not at least another bear market.
Earnings season starts off this week and that could bring some life to buyers looking for something to be excited about. The long-term view of the economy may not be too promising but there is still a lot of cash to be put into companies that have benefited from the hot economy. The first quarter did have the worst of the Omicron infections to work against but other economic data showed resilience in the economy so it could be a good set up for uplifting earnings. We will see.
All the TSP funds outside of the G-fund were down for the week. The F, C, and I-funds were all down more than 1% but the S-fund lagged heavily and ended the week down 4.45%.
Looking for an edge on your TSP return? Get the Last Look Report for as low as $4.19 / month. The report is a daily email on the TSP AutoTracker moves, news, forum threads, and more before the IFT deadline. The service is aimed to help you make your own IFT decisions by giving you relative information 30 min prior to the deadline including where the members of TSP Talk are moving their money.
Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending April 8:
SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) stepped up Monday and it looked to be continuing its leg higher after the previous week's setbacks. But the bears made their move instead and brought prices back down to their 20 and 50-day EMA levels. The 50-day EMA did hold as support for a couple days which stabilized prices and leaves confidence in new buyers ahead of earnings season. The C-fund lost 1.23% for the week.
The Dow Completion Index (S-fund) did not have its 20 and 50-day EMAs hold as support. The index gapped down below and remained in a price range below the open gap but above the lower end of the March trading. The index held up from further losses but did give up 4.45% reflected in the S-fund.
EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) also didn't get the support it needed from the 20-day EMA. The ETF started the week above both the 50 and 20-day EMAs but could not continue its trend higher. Instead the ETF gapped down and remained in a tight range from there. The I-fund lost 1.79% to lag the C-fund performance.
BND (Bonds / F-fund) is reflecting the market's reaction to the Federal Reserve's plans to fight inflation. Yields are on the rise and bond prices are in a strong trend down. This is a fund where a bottom is not obvious but the ETF did close at a falling trend line for the week. Not good for those invested but may be a short-term low for now if the trend line holds as support. The F-fund 1.80% to lag the C and I-funds for the week.
Good luck and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at the Market Comments page. If you need more help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our Premium Services can help.
Thomas A Crowley
wwww.tsptalk.com
Last Look Report
Facebook | Twitter
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
The greatest obstacle this week for would be buyers was the release of the Fed minutes from the previous March FOMC meeting as well as hawkish Fed members speaking publicly. The Federal Reserve is set on more monetary tightening on top of their campaign to increase borrowing costs. The Federal Reserve would like to wind down nearly a trillion dollars in assets this year, further pulling cash out of the economy in attempts to slow inflation. The Fed has become unconcerned about the market, and it is growing clearer that their action may cost the U.S. economy a recession if not at least another bear market.
Earnings season starts off this week and that could bring some life to buyers looking for something to be excited about. The long-term view of the economy may not be too promising but there is still a lot of cash to be put into companies that have benefited from the hot economy. The first quarter did have the worst of the Omicron infections to work against but other economic data showed resilience in the economy so it could be a good set up for uplifting earnings. We will see.
All the TSP funds outside of the G-fund were down for the week. The F, C, and I-funds were all down more than 1% but the S-fund lagged heavily and ended the week down 4.45%.
Looking for an edge on your TSP return? Get the Last Look Report for as low as $4.19 / month. The report is a daily email on the TSP AutoTracker moves, news, forum threads, and more before the IFT deadline. The service is aimed to help you make your own IFT decisions by giving you relative information 30 min prior to the deadline including where the members of TSP Talk are moving their money.
Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending April 8:
SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) stepped up Monday and it looked to be continuing its leg higher after the previous week's setbacks. But the bears made their move instead and brought prices back down to their 20 and 50-day EMA levels. The 50-day EMA did hold as support for a couple days which stabilized prices and leaves confidence in new buyers ahead of earnings season. The C-fund lost 1.23% for the week.
The Dow Completion Index (S-fund) did not have its 20 and 50-day EMAs hold as support. The index gapped down below and remained in a price range below the open gap but above the lower end of the March trading. The index held up from further losses but did give up 4.45% reflected in the S-fund.
EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) also didn't get the support it needed from the 20-day EMA. The ETF started the week above both the 50 and 20-day EMAs but could not continue its trend higher. Instead the ETF gapped down and remained in a tight range from there. The I-fund lost 1.79% to lag the C-fund performance.
BND (Bonds / F-fund) is reflecting the market's reaction to the Federal Reserve's plans to fight inflation. Yields are on the rise and bond prices are in a strong trend down. This is a fund where a bottom is not obvious but the ETF did close at a falling trend line for the week. Not good for those invested but may be a short-term low for now if the trend line holds as support. The F-fund 1.80% to lag the C and I-funds for the week.
Good luck and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at the Market Comments page. If you need more help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our Premium Services can help.
Thomas A Crowley
wwww.tsptalk.com
Last Look Report
Facebook | Twitter
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
