Stocks continued their rising trend early in the week but pulled back from the highs in the second half. Oil's decline drove stock prices higher until it didn't. The first bout of buying on Monday coincided with a significant drop in oil prices. The tease of peace between Russia and Ukraine helped drop prices along with the release of oil reserves. Oil prices continued to drop through the week and Brent Crude Oil prices dropped 11% for the week. However, stocks turned around Wednesday when oil prices had a mid-week rebound. Stocks slipped further into Thursday ending the worst quarter performance since the first quarter of 2020.
Friday the March Jobs report came out and showed strength in the job market and a drop in unemployment. Initially stocks pulled back in consideration of the Federal Reserve's campaign to raise borrowing costs which is supported by a strong labor market. Yet stocks came back the second half of Friday to bring the S&P 500 to above even for the week. The S-fund and I-fund outperformed the large cap fund, both ending the week above 1%.
Another focus for investors this week was the inversion of the 2 year and 10 year Treasury Yields. This has historically been a preceding event before previous recessions. Tom does a great job of showing examples of this in this week's Market Commentary: TSP Talk: The yield curve has nearly inverted. Stocks don't care.
It's a new month and a new quarter and although the first quarter wasn't pretty, March showed strength in what looked to be a troubled stock market. With the bulls credibility back there will be better opportunities to time the oscillating battle for dominance between the bulls and the bears.
Looking for an edge on your TSP return? Get the Last Look Report for as low as $4.19 / month. The report is a daily email on the TSP AutoTracker moves, news, forum threads, and more before the IFT deadline. The service is aimed to help you make your own IFT decisions by giving you relative information 30 min prior to the deadline including where the members of TSP Talk are moving their money.
Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending April 1:
SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) kept within the established rising trading channel to start the week until Thursday when the index sold off back towards the major moving averages. The ETF ended March back below the February highs. The C-fund ended the week just above even with a gain of 0.08% underperforming the F, S, and I-funds.
The Dow Completion Index (S-fund) also established new highs above its February highs after gapping up Tuesday. With the 200-day EMA in reach, the index pulled back to fill that open gap as the market as a whole came down. The index did remain above its 50-day EMA and held onto a 1.09% gain in the S-fund.
EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) started the week below its 50-day EMA but gapped up Tuesday but was kept by its 200-day EMA acting as resistance. The prices pulled back to fill the open gap but gains of Friday gave the I-fund most of its gains for the week and returned the price of the ETF back above the 50-day EMA. The I-fund led the TSP funds for the week with a gain of 1.19%.
BND (Bonds / F-fund) had a steady climb higher this week and was approaching its 20-day EMA before pulling back at Friday's open. The index erased most of Friday's losses and the F-fund held onto a 0.75% gain for the week.
Good luck and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at the Market Comments page. If you need more help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our Premium Services can help.
Thomas A Crowley
wwww.tsptalk.com
Last Look Report
Facebook | Twitter
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Friday the March Jobs report came out and showed strength in the job market and a drop in unemployment. Initially stocks pulled back in consideration of the Federal Reserve's campaign to raise borrowing costs which is supported by a strong labor market. Yet stocks came back the second half of Friday to bring the S&P 500 to above even for the week. The S-fund and I-fund outperformed the large cap fund, both ending the week above 1%.
Another focus for investors this week was the inversion of the 2 year and 10 year Treasury Yields. This has historically been a preceding event before previous recessions. Tom does a great job of showing examples of this in this week's Market Commentary: TSP Talk: The yield curve has nearly inverted. Stocks don't care.
It's a new month and a new quarter and although the first quarter wasn't pretty, March showed strength in what looked to be a troubled stock market. With the bulls credibility back there will be better opportunities to time the oscillating battle for dominance between the bulls and the bears.
Looking for an edge on your TSP return? Get the Last Look Report for as low as $4.19 / month. The report is a daily email on the TSP AutoTracker moves, news, forum threads, and more before the IFT deadline. The service is aimed to help you make your own IFT decisions by giving you relative information 30 min prior to the deadline including where the members of TSP Talk are moving their money.
Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending April 1:
SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) kept within the established rising trading channel to start the week until Thursday when the index sold off back towards the major moving averages. The ETF ended March back below the February highs. The C-fund ended the week just above even with a gain of 0.08% underperforming the F, S, and I-funds.
The Dow Completion Index (S-fund) also established new highs above its February highs after gapping up Tuesday. With the 200-day EMA in reach, the index pulled back to fill that open gap as the market as a whole came down. The index did remain above its 50-day EMA and held onto a 1.09% gain in the S-fund.
EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) started the week below its 50-day EMA but gapped up Tuesday but was kept by its 200-day EMA acting as resistance. The prices pulled back to fill the open gap but gains of Friday gave the I-fund most of its gains for the week and returned the price of the ETF back above the 50-day EMA. The I-fund led the TSP funds for the week with a gain of 1.19%.
BND (Bonds / F-fund) had a steady climb higher this week and was approaching its 20-day EMA before pulling back at Friday's open. The index erased most of Friday's losses and the F-fund held onto a 0.75% gain for the week.
Good luck and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at the Market Comments page. If you need more help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our Premium Services can help.
Thomas A Crowley
wwww.tsptalk.com
Last Look Report
Facebook | Twitter
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
