Volatility in stocks continued into the second week of February. Stock prices were anything but consistent this week. We saw price action anywhere from tight and flat, gap ups, and sell-offs. Inflation data and geopolitical tensions took stock indices off their highs for the week and sent some into negative territory. The S&P 500 was down this week following two consecutive weeks of gains. The C-fund lost 1.79% this week despite being up 1.94% in three days after Wednesday's close. The small caps index DWCPF held onto weekly gains for the second week despite a sell-off on Friday; but a 0.93% weekly gain was what was left of a 4.23% weekly gain in the S-fund at Wednesday's close.
The consumer price index for January came out Thursday and reported a 7.5% increase from the previous January. This marked the highest yearly rate of inflation data in 40 years. Stocks did not initially sell-off to this report but it took some hawkish words from Fed members to provoke some selling. The Federal Reserve has made controlling inflation their main priority for the economy. They can slow demand by tightening monetary policy. Some think the inflation report gives them reason to be more aggressive in their rate hikes than previously expected.
The tensions between Russia and Ukraine is also being closely watched throughout the world. An invasion will certainly drive oil prices higher thus adding more fuel to the inflation problem. No pun intended.
Bonds were down for the week but were up enough Friday to erase more than half of the F-fund's accumulated losses in the week. The F-fund ended the week down 0.40%.
Looking for an edge on your TSP return? Get the Last Look Report for as low as $4.19 / month. The report is a daily email on the TSP AutoTracker moves, news, forum threads, and more before the IFT deadline. The service is aimed to help you make your own IFT decisions by giving you relative information 30 min prior to the deadline including where the members of TSP Talk are moving their money.
Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending February 11:
The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) popped above declining resistance Wednesday but left an open gap in the open. The trend line couldn't hold as support either and the gap was filled on Thursday when stocks began a sell-off sparked by the CPI report. The sell-off grew deeper Friday and the ETF fell and closed down to prices not seen since January. The 200-day may have held as support but as you can see in January, that doesn't always mean a rebound in underway. The C-fund lagged the TSP funds for the week with a 1.79% loss and was the only stock fund with a loss for the week.
The Dow Completion Index (S-fund) had a good run to start the week. The S-fund was up 4.23% by the close on Wednesday. The DWCPF index actually was up intraday Thursday to nearly hit its 50-day EMA price, but reversed down to give back most of the gains of the week over the next two days and close for the week under its 20-day EMA again. The S-fund led the TSP funds with a 0.93% gain for the week.
EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) gapped up above its 20, 50, and 200-day EMAs Wednesday leaving an open gap behind. The good times were short lived after the gains produced were erased over the next two days. The I-fund ended the week with a mere 0.01% gain.
BND (Bonds / F-fund) was on track for more than 1% in losses for the week after Thursday's close. The F-fund gained 0.63% on Friday alone to reduce its weekly loss to 0.40% for the week. What is left behind is three open gaps above from the last two week's of action.
Good luck and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at the Market Comments page. If you need more help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our Premium Services can help.
Thomas A Crowley
wwww.tsptalk.com
Last Look Report
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The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
The consumer price index for January came out Thursday and reported a 7.5% increase from the previous January. This marked the highest yearly rate of inflation data in 40 years. Stocks did not initially sell-off to this report but it took some hawkish words from Fed members to provoke some selling. The Federal Reserve has made controlling inflation their main priority for the economy. They can slow demand by tightening monetary policy. Some think the inflation report gives them reason to be more aggressive in their rate hikes than previously expected.
The tensions between Russia and Ukraine is also being closely watched throughout the world. An invasion will certainly drive oil prices higher thus adding more fuel to the inflation problem. No pun intended.
Bonds were down for the week but were up enough Friday to erase more than half of the F-fund's accumulated losses in the week. The F-fund ended the week down 0.40%.
Looking for an edge on your TSP return? Get the Last Look Report for as low as $4.19 / month. The report is a daily email on the TSP AutoTracker moves, news, forum threads, and more before the IFT deadline. The service is aimed to help you make your own IFT decisions by giving you relative information 30 min prior to the deadline including where the members of TSP Talk are moving their money.
Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending February 11:
The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) popped above declining resistance Wednesday but left an open gap in the open. The trend line couldn't hold as support either and the gap was filled on Thursday when stocks began a sell-off sparked by the CPI report. The sell-off grew deeper Friday and the ETF fell and closed down to prices not seen since January. The 200-day may have held as support but as you can see in January, that doesn't always mean a rebound in underway. The C-fund lagged the TSP funds for the week with a 1.79% loss and was the only stock fund with a loss for the week.
The Dow Completion Index (S-fund) had a good run to start the week. The S-fund was up 4.23% by the close on Wednesday. The DWCPF index actually was up intraday Thursday to nearly hit its 50-day EMA price, but reversed down to give back most of the gains of the week over the next two days and close for the week under its 20-day EMA again. The S-fund led the TSP funds with a 0.93% gain for the week.
EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) gapped up above its 20, 50, and 200-day EMAs Wednesday leaving an open gap behind. The good times were short lived after the gains produced were erased over the next two days. The I-fund ended the week with a mere 0.01% gain.
BND (Bonds / F-fund) was on track for more than 1% in losses for the week after Thursday's close. The F-fund gained 0.63% on Friday alone to reduce its weekly loss to 0.40% for the week. What is left behind is three open gaps above from the last two week's of action.
Good luck and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at the Market Comments page. If you need more help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our Premium Services can help.
Thomas A Crowley
wwww.tsptalk.com
Last Look Report
Facebook | Twitter
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
