A week of corporate earnings and an FOMC meeting brought volatility to stock indices including mid-day reversals and last-minute rallies. Stocks were down to start the week with anticipation of the FOMC meeting policy statements. The Federal Reserve signaled the first-rate hike since the beginning of the pandemic to come in March as they finish winding down their bond purchases. The Fed's change in priorities from keeping the economy growing in the face of the pandemic to now combating inflation is not in the market's favor. Easy and cheap money pads earnings but now with the Fed reducing liquidity and fiscal support, growth will not come as easy as was seen in 2021.
Corporate earnings are also coming out this week and enticing market direction. Apple earnings Friday sparked a rally to end the week off that produced gains in U.S. stocks and pushed the S&P 500 (C-fund) into positive territory for the week to end a three-week losing streak. The S-fund nearly matched the C-fund's gains on Friday but started the day deeper in the negative so finished the week down for the fifth straight week. The S-fund is down 13.33% for the year in just the first month.
The I-fund lagged this week without the Apple induced rally but still has a higher negative return than the C-fund for January.
Bonds slipped further this week with a sell-off on Wednesday when the FOMC meeting was wrapping up.
Expect volatility to remain relatively high next week while corporate earnings continue to take over headlines.
Looking for an edge on your TSP return? Get the Last Look Report for as low as $4.19 / month. The report is a daily email on the TSP AutoTracker moves, news, forum threads, and more before the IFT deadline. The service is aimed to help you make your own IFT decisions by giving you relative information 30 min prior to the deadline including where the members of TSP Talk are moving their money.
Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending January 28:
The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) jumped back and forth between its 200-day EMA this week. There was a lot of spread each day with very volatile intraday action. The C-fund was able to produce a gain of 0.79% after a 2.45% rally Friday that mostly came near the close. The index chart does have a possible bear flag formation that we know tend to break down. But a new month starting Tuesday may bring relief to an oversold market.
The Dow Completion Index (S-fund) was up 2.44% on Friday but that is overshadowed its overall direction the last month. The index was still down 0.94% for the week extending its weekly losing streak to five weeks which encompasses every week of 2022 so far. The index is trading in a falling trading channel and has slipped through previous lows where many thought would be the bottom. This could carry on further but we will see days like Friday where this losing fund can produce impressive daily gains from time to time as volatility remains high.
EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) gapped down to start the week but filled that open gap during the early action of Wednesday. The ETF pulled back to finish the week and did not rally late with U.S. stocks. The ETF ended the week about even with the intraday lows of late November. The I-fund lagged for the week with a 2.79% loss.
BND (Bonds / F-fund) slid down day early in the week to fill the open gap left behind last Friday. The FOMC policy statement sparked some selling in the bond market. The index was up the next couple of days but finished the week down 0.37%.
Good luck and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at the Market Comments page. If you need more help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our Premium Services can help.
Thomas A Crowley
wwww.tsptalk.com
Last Look Report
Facebook | Twitter
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Corporate earnings are also coming out this week and enticing market direction. Apple earnings Friday sparked a rally to end the week off that produced gains in U.S. stocks and pushed the S&P 500 (C-fund) into positive territory for the week to end a three-week losing streak. The S-fund nearly matched the C-fund's gains on Friday but started the day deeper in the negative so finished the week down for the fifth straight week. The S-fund is down 13.33% for the year in just the first month.
The I-fund lagged this week without the Apple induced rally but still has a higher negative return than the C-fund for January.
Bonds slipped further this week with a sell-off on Wednesday when the FOMC meeting was wrapping up.
Expect volatility to remain relatively high next week while corporate earnings continue to take over headlines.
Looking for an edge on your TSP return? Get the Last Look Report for as low as $4.19 / month. The report is a daily email on the TSP AutoTracker moves, news, forum threads, and more before the IFT deadline. The service is aimed to help you make your own IFT decisions by giving you relative information 30 min prior to the deadline including where the members of TSP Talk are moving their money.
Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending January 28:
The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) jumped back and forth between its 200-day EMA this week. There was a lot of spread each day with very volatile intraday action. The C-fund was able to produce a gain of 0.79% after a 2.45% rally Friday that mostly came near the close. The index chart does have a possible bear flag formation that we know tend to break down. But a new month starting Tuesday may bring relief to an oversold market.
The Dow Completion Index (S-fund) was up 2.44% on Friday but that is overshadowed its overall direction the last month. The index was still down 0.94% for the week extending its weekly losing streak to five weeks which encompasses every week of 2022 so far. The index is trading in a falling trading channel and has slipped through previous lows where many thought would be the bottom. This could carry on further but we will see days like Friday where this losing fund can produce impressive daily gains from time to time as volatility remains high.
EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) gapped down to start the week but filled that open gap during the early action of Wednesday. The ETF pulled back to finish the week and did not rally late with U.S. stocks. The ETF ended the week about even with the intraday lows of late November. The I-fund lagged for the week with a 2.79% loss.
BND (Bonds / F-fund) slid down day early in the week to fill the open gap left behind last Friday. The FOMC policy statement sparked some selling in the bond market. The index was up the next couple of days but finished the week down 0.37%.
Good luck and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at the Market Comments page. If you need more help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our Premium Services can help.
Thomas A Crowley
wwww.tsptalk.com
Last Look Report
Facebook | Twitter
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
