Stock indices split direction this week. Large caps remained in a tight trading range while adding gains four of the five days; rotation out of small caps left the S-fund down for the week but the chart didn't sustain much technical damage. The S&P 500 produced new all time closing highs four consecutive days starting Tuesday and on; Friday was the S&P 500's 48th record close of 2021. The gains were modest each day with the greater gains of the week coming Thursday at 0.25% for the C-fund. The S-fund was just under even for the week going into Friday but gave up 0.48% on the day to solidify those losses.
Economic data was in the air this week but there wasn't much reaction despite the low trading volume. You can see big moves in market when only a fraction of the usual participants are making big moves. But there wasn't much reaction to the jobless claims, producer price index, consumer price index, or the consumer sentiment survey. All together these reports were mixed with good and negative signs for the market. I'd say the consumer sentiment survey which came out Friday should have been have got the attention of investors as the economy is being carried by consumers. Small caps pulled back Friday but large caps stayed steady and added gains.
The S&P 500 has had the advantage of a successful earnings season. Of the S&P 500 companies who have filed the earnings report for the second quarter so far, 86% have beat analysts expectations. The second quarter was coming into the summer, the public was really starting to go out again, and there were not the concerns of the variant strains of the covid virus like we've had so far in the third quarter. Investor are enjoying the numbers now but should be cautious about future forecasts especially if the country takes a step back on its virus precaution mandates.
We like to discuss the domestic funds but credit must be given to the contributing foreign I-fund that out performed the U.S. stock funds (C and S) for a third straight week. From the data we have from our own autotracker, not many are investing in the I-fund, at least not members of our community. The I-fund was up 1.55% for the week.
Bonds recovered some lost ground Friday and was pushed into positive territory for the week after initial losses for the week. The F-fund was up 0.11% for the week.
Looking for an edge on your TSP return? Get the Last Look Report for as low as $4.19 / month. The report is a daily email on the auto tracker moves, news, forum threads, and more before the IFT deadline. The service is aimed to help you make your own IFT decisions by giving you relative information 30 min prior to the deadline including where the members of TSP Talk are moving their money.
Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending August 13:
The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) pulled back slightly to start the week but from there the index produced four consecutive record closing highs for the first time since 2017. Friday was the fourth day and the index was trading just below rising resistance so its hard to be optimistic about a fifth day on record highs. The trend is up and has been up for this index and everyday the bear warnings that this can't go on forever get louder and the market continues to ignore it. The C-fund added 0.75% on the slow trading week.
The Dow Completion Index (S-fund) lagged the TSP funds for the week with the sole loss. The technical outlook is not in bad shape though. The index remain in a rising trading channel and has continued to find support from trend lines and the moving averages. The index was trading about even for the week going into Friday but a 0.48% loss on the day finalized the week with a 0.52% loss.
EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) remains in steep rising trading channel and moved on to reach new highs on Friday. The index gained 0.70% just on Friday. Overhead resistance is keeping gains at bay for now and there are two open gaps below that were opened this week. The index would have to break below the support of its trading channel to fill the gap opened up on Wednesday. The I-fund has outperformed the U.S. stock funds (C and S) for the third straight week. The I-fund added 1.55% this week.
BND (Bonds / F-fund) continued where it left off the previous week with more declines and eventually traded at its 50-day EMA for the first time since early June. The moving average held as support and the index gapped up Friday and added more through the day with a 0.37% gain on the day. That action Friday pushed the index into positive territory for the week with the F-fund finishing out with a 0.11% gain.
The future doesn't always resemble the past but the bond index is in a similar situation technically that it was at the beginning of the year. The index eventually sold off further in that instance.
Good luck and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at the Market Comments page. If you need more help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our Premium Services can help.
Thomas A Crowley
wwww.tsptalk.com
Facebook | Twitter
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Economic data was in the air this week but there wasn't much reaction despite the low trading volume. You can see big moves in market when only a fraction of the usual participants are making big moves. But there wasn't much reaction to the jobless claims, producer price index, consumer price index, or the consumer sentiment survey. All together these reports were mixed with good and negative signs for the market. I'd say the consumer sentiment survey which came out Friday should have been have got the attention of investors as the economy is being carried by consumers. Small caps pulled back Friday but large caps stayed steady and added gains.
The S&P 500 has had the advantage of a successful earnings season. Of the S&P 500 companies who have filed the earnings report for the second quarter so far, 86% have beat analysts expectations. The second quarter was coming into the summer, the public was really starting to go out again, and there were not the concerns of the variant strains of the covid virus like we've had so far in the third quarter. Investor are enjoying the numbers now but should be cautious about future forecasts especially if the country takes a step back on its virus precaution mandates.
We like to discuss the domestic funds but credit must be given to the contributing foreign I-fund that out performed the U.S. stock funds (C and S) for a third straight week. From the data we have from our own autotracker, not many are investing in the I-fund, at least not members of our community. The I-fund was up 1.55% for the week.
Bonds recovered some lost ground Friday and was pushed into positive territory for the week after initial losses for the week. The F-fund was up 0.11% for the week.
Looking for an edge on your TSP return? Get the Last Look Report for as low as $4.19 / month. The report is a daily email on the auto tracker moves, news, forum threads, and more before the IFT deadline. The service is aimed to help you make your own IFT decisions by giving you relative information 30 min prior to the deadline including where the members of TSP Talk are moving their money.
Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending August 13:
The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) pulled back slightly to start the week but from there the index produced four consecutive record closing highs for the first time since 2017. Friday was the fourth day and the index was trading just below rising resistance so its hard to be optimistic about a fifth day on record highs. The trend is up and has been up for this index and everyday the bear warnings that this can't go on forever get louder and the market continues to ignore it. The C-fund added 0.75% on the slow trading week.
The Dow Completion Index (S-fund) lagged the TSP funds for the week with the sole loss. The technical outlook is not in bad shape though. The index remain in a rising trading channel and has continued to find support from trend lines and the moving averages. The index was trading about even for the week going into Friday but a 0.48% loss on the day finalized the week with a 0.52% loss.
EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) remains in steep rising trading channel and moved on to reach new highs on Friday. The index gained 0.70% just on Friday. Overhead resistance is keeping gains at bay for now and there are two open gaps below that were opened this week. The index would have to break below the support of its trading channel to fill the gap opened up on Wednesday. The I-fund has outperformed the U.S. stock funds (C and S) for the third straight week. The I-fund added 1.55% this week.
BND (Bonds / F-fund) continued where it left off the previous week with more declines and eventually traded at its 50-day EMA for the first time since early June. The moving average held as support and the index gapped up Friday and added more through the day with a 0.37% gain on the day. That action Friday pushed the index into positive territory for the week with the F-fund finishing out with a 0.11% gain.
The future doesn't always resemble the past but the bond index is in a similar situation technically that it was at the beginning of the year. The index eventually sold off further in that instance.
Good luck and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at the Market Comments page. If you need more help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our Premium Services can help.
Thomas A Crowley
wwww.tsptalk.com
Facebook | Twitter
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
