TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up

October's first week of trading continued with the trend of no trend we've seen lately. Passive traders wait on the sideline for the market to make its next big move before they're comfortable to join. Neither the bulls nor the bears seem to have been able to find traction, though the bears have had more opportunities, to push this market in any direction other than sideways. We did see the market open lower Monday but by Tuesday afternoon the extremes of this weeks trading channel were already established.

In defense of the timid traders, the monthly jobs report was scheduled to be published Friday which would supposedly give traders an idea of the likeliness of a rate hike from the Fed by the end of this year. The jobs report numbers came out slightly lower than expected with a gain 156,000 jobs and unemployment rate at 5.0% when the consensus estimates are looking for a gain of about 176,000 and an unemployment rate of 4.9%. This did put stocks down but the indices were able to close off their lows after the reaction to the report was done by mid-day and the dip buyers made their way in.

Bonds were down for the week with stocks as better than expected economic reports Wedneday sent bond yields higher and bond prices lower.

All the TSP funds, other than the G-fund, were down for the week. The S-fund lagged this week with a loss of 1.29%.

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Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending October 7th:

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The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) fell below the rising support mentioned last week and closed below it on Friday. The beginning of October held back from testing the top of the rising trading channel as before breadth dropped and action moved sideways. The C-fund was down 0.6 % for the week.

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The Dow Completion Index (S-fund) remains to drop with its declining trading channel that looks to be part of a bull flag. However, there was nothing bullish about this week as the S-fudn dropped 1.29% lagging the TSP funds.

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EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) failed to fill the open gap from a couple of weeks ago. Rather, the index fell and closed below the rising support lines of the June and September lows on Friday. The I- fund was down 0.76% for the week.

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AGG (Bonds / F-fund) prices fell this week which filled an open gap from mid-September. Bonds continued to fall from there and closed nearly on the support line of the two and a half month trading channel Thursday and Friday. The F-fund was down 0.51% to start off October.

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Good luck and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at the Market Comments page. If you need more help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our Premium Services can help.


Tommy Crowley
www.tsptalk.com
Weekly Wrap-Ups Archive
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The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or are commendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
 
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