Volatility remains high and a dramatic drop in the Swiss franc sent stocks on a wild ride this week. Earnings season kicked in and that should provide a catalyst for stocks this week, whether up or down. The indices are at a critical point and I wouldn't look away too long this coming week.
Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending January 16th:
The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) is still working on the right shoulder of its inverted head and shoulders after its first attempt at a breakout failed. So far it has held at every test of its bottom support line, but with some momentum from Friday gains it could be on its way to finish its right shoulder and try once more to breakout above its overhead resistance, but that could be wishful thinking for the bulls - forgetting about the looming open gap from October.
The long term chart shows that the 100 day moving average has been holding for years except for the sell off in October of last year. The SPY is currently testing it now.
The Wilshire 4500 (S-fund) broke below its support line but made its way back above it at Friday's close. If the overhead resistance is reached and the cup and handle formation is completed, it will be interesting to see if it can breakout successfully this time - as we would we expect a cup and handle formation to do.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) saw a strong close this week but we still see the bear flag in a bear market and so we should expect bearish results until we are proven wrong.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The AGG (Bonds / F-fund) continued to be the best fund of the year and, despite a modest loss on Friday, it still managed to end the week with solid gains.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Good luck and thanks for reading! We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at TSP Talk Market Commentary.If you need more help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our premium services can help.
Tommy Crowley (TommyIV)
www.tsptalk.com
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The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or are commendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
