The C-fund has been the fund to hold in 2024, and only a few members have been able to out smart it so far.
The C-fund reached new all-time highs to conclude Friday's rally in large caps. Meanwhile, the S, I, and even the F-fund have all slipped lower so far in 2024. All three of these funds have losses deeper than 1% for the year led by the S-fund's 2.45% loss.
The market was open for only four days last week, but quickly market participants had to face a new reality. The expected March Fed Fund rate cut may be postponed. The idea of that rate cut entered the market's mind in late fall and fueled the November and December rally. The spring rate cut was suggested as a possibility but the market took that to heart without anything in writing. But now, higher than expected inflation data and hotter than expected economic activity may be convincing the Federal Open Market's Committee to keep rates higher for longer. These realizations spooked the market early in the week and opened up buying opportunities for the eventual rally on Friday.
Despite its early ups and down this month, the C-fund sits at the 6th spot of the TSP Talk non-premium standings. That leaves only five members out of the hundreds of TSP Talk AutoTracker participants who have been able to outmaneuver the C-fund. Only two currently hold 100% C-fund.
Three of the five jumped into the market on January 4th, a low in the first week of 2024. But only one member has outperformed the C-fund with credit to a move they made this week. Voodoo22 used their second IFT of the month to get into the C-fund on Tuesday. A move that earned them 1.6% over the next three days.
But that buy on Tuesday by Voodoo22 was not what poker players would call 'the nuts'. The best trade of the week. That trade would go to anyone who came into the week already in the G-fund and bought 100% C-fund on Wednesday's COB. That move would give a member a return of 2.2% for the week. But unfortunately, there were no members who made that move to give the crown.
However, we will give a shout out to Tsunami who similarly moved into 100% S-fund on Wednesday from the G-fund to accumulate a 1.9% gain for the week. Please, I encourage anyone to leave a comment if they have a move this week worth showing off.
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Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending January 19:
The small cap index DWCPF (S-fund) was able to produce a small gain for the week after Friday's rally, but the index pulled back from a bear flag to start the week and ran into the old support line. The S-fund was up 0.21% for the week but still holds the worst return for the new with a -2.45% loss for 2024.
The ETF EFA (I-fund) gapped down twice this week. The second gap was filled after a turnaround mid-week, but the first was left open. The I-fund actually took a 1.57% loss for the week.
Bonds also accumulated a loss this week. The bond ETF BND (F-fund) ended its week by testing the support line of the sliding trading channel its established over the last month of trading. The F-fund fell 1.1% for the week.
Good luck and thanks for reading! We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at TSP Talk - Market Commentary. If you need some help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our premium services can help.
Thomas Crowley
(TommyIV)
www.tsptalk.com
Weekly Wrap-Ups Archive
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The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
