TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up - A 2025 Outlook

A New Year, A New Strategy: Preparing Your TSP for 2025​

The C-fund was the TSP fund to beat for the second consecutive year. In 2023, only 23 AutoTracker members managed a better return than the C-fund. In 2024, that number dropped to just 10. The C-fund’s price has surged an impressive 59.4% since the final day of 2022, offering tremendous opportunities for stockholders to grow their wealth.

But not every year is smooth sailing. Back in 2022, the G-fund outshone all others, earning its title as the top-performing TSP fund. Only 25 AutoTracker members outperformed the G-fund’s modest 2.98% return that year. Meanwhile, the C-fund and S-fund prices experienced steep declines of 18.13% and 26.26%, respectively.

What Will 2025 Bring?​

Will it be a year for aggressive stock exposure, or will caution and an opportunistic approach win the day? There are several key factors to consider:

• Economic Policy Changes: Donald Trump’s return to office may usher in fewer business regulations, but it could also mean the reintroduction of tariffs. This combination might reignite inflationary pressures, adding complexity to market conditions.
  
  
• AI Developments: In 2024, rapid advancements in AI fueled investor enthusiasm. Can that momentum carry into 2025, or will the excitement cool?
  
  
• Federal Reserve Stance: The market’s obsession with anticipated rate cuts dominated the latter half of 2024. However, the Federal Reserve now appears more hesitant to ease monetary policy as quickly as many had hoped.

Given these uncertainties, TSP investors should prepare for the possibility of slower gains in the C-fund. It may also be a year where protecting newfound wealth becomes a priority. Deciding how much risk exposure to maintain depends on your time horizon and tolerance for losses—a deeply personal decision every investor must make.

Improve Your TSP Strategy with AutoTracker and Last Look Report​

I want to thank everyone who has joined our TSP Talk AutoTracker and supported TSP Talk through one of our Premium Services. Together, we’ve grown as investors and developed a deeper understanding of market dynamics.

If you want to maximize the benefits of the AutoTracker, consider subscribing to the Last Look Report. This service offers:

• Community Insights: A close watch on TSP investment changes across the community, with special attention to the top performers.
  
  
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• Timely Updates: All of this arrives 30 minutes before the TSP trade deadline, giving you the information you need to make informed final investment decisions.

As we step into 2025, let’s remain vigilant and adaptable. Success in TSP investing isn’t just about riding the highs; it’s about navigating challenges and protecting your financial future. Together, we can make this a year of informed decisions and steady progress.


Thomas Crowley
(TommyIV)
Writer of the Last Look Report
Weekly Wrap-Ups Archive

The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.