Rally runs out of steam
Stocks opened last week, with a continuation of the recent bounce off of the August lows, but by Thursday the rally ran out of steam, and after Friday’s very weak jobs report, we saw the market take back most, if not all, of the early weekly gains from our TSP stock funds.
For the week the C-fund slipped 0.18%%, the S-fund lost 0.36%, while the I-fund held onto a 0.39%. Bonds (F-fund) gained 0.84%, and the G-fund was up 0.04%.
So, September is getting off to a bad start, and despite the strong finish last month, the losses were pretty sharp for the month of August. The C-fund ended the month down 5.44%, the S-fund dropped 8.12%, the I-fund fell 9.03%, the F-fund gained 1.45%, and the G-fund was up 0.19%.
Last week we talked about the charts looking very vulnerable despite the rally off of the lows. This past week a very ugly bear flag made itself very apparent and unfortunately bear flags tend to resolve to the downside.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The light volume, pre-holiday trading can be unpredictable, and we should find out more about where this market wants to go after the holiday weekend.
I am concerned for the short-term as the charts are really pointing toward a test of the 1100 – 1120 lows, but the high pessimism we are seeing from investors leads me to believe that the lows could hold and we may not see another leg down for the indices. The “fear” readings are similar to what we saw near the 2010 lows as a bottom formed over the course of several months.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com,analysis by TSP Talk
I would not be surprised if we see a brief, panic-like capitulation sell-off below 1100, but I know I will be looking to be a buyer at that point, if not a little sooner.
Good luck, and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up.
Tom Crowley
www.tsptalk.com
Weekly Wrap-Ups Archive
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The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or are commendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Stocks opened last week, with a continuation of the recent bounce off of the August lows, but by Thursday the rally ran out of steam, and after Friday’s very weak jobs report, we saw the market take back most, if not all, of the early weekly gains from our TSP stock funds.
For the week the C-fund slipped 0.18%%, the S-fund lost 0.36%, while the I-fund held onto a 0.39%. Bonds (F-fund) gained 0.84%, and the G-fund was up 0.04%.
So, September is getting off to a bad start, and despite the strong finish last month, the losses were pretty sharp for the month of August. The C-fund ended the month down 5.44%, the S-fund dropped 8.12%, the I-fund fell 9.03%, the F-fund gained 1.45%, and the G-fund was up 0.19%.
Last week we talked about the charts looking very vulnerable despite the rally off of the lows. This past week a very ugly bear flag made itself very apparent and unfortunately bear flags tend to resolve to the downside.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The light volume, pre-holiday trading can be unpredictable, and we should find out more about where this market wants to go after the holiday weekend.
I am concerned for the short-term as the charts are really pointing toward a test of the 1100 – 1120 lows, but the high pessimism we are seeing from investors leads me to believe that the lows could hold and we may not see another leg down for the indices. The “fear” readings are similar to what we saw near the 2010 lows as a bottom formed over the course of several months.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com,analysis by TSP Talk
I would not be surprised if we see a brief, panic-like capitulation sell-off below 1100, but I know I will be looking to be a buyer at that point, if not a little sooner.
Good luck, and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up.
Tom Crowley
www.tsptalk.com
Weekly Wrap-Ups Archive
Facebook | Twitter
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or are commendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
