TSP stock funds head south last week
A series of poor economic data gave the stock market a one-two punch last week,putting an end to what looked like a promising rally. But Tuesday’s breakout above the new descending trading channel turned out to be a fake-out.
For the TSP, the C-fund was down 2.30% for the week. The S-fund lost 2.91%, and the I-fund was down just 0.11% as the weaker dollar helped it stay buoyant. Bonds (F-fund) gained 0.29%, and the G-fund was up 0.05%.
After a weak May, June is off an inauspicious start as the old axiom, “sell in May and go away", has really played out so far this year.
The S&P 500 is clearly in a downtrend and it closed below the 20 and 50-day EMAs for a third straight day. The20-day EMA is about to move below the 50-day EMA and while that is a bearish sign for the market going forward, it is also an indication of being oversold and we could very well see a relief rally this week.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com
Sentiment is also very bearish. Bearish enough fora relief rally.
I’m not a big fan of following the fundamentals of the economy because the market does not always seem to move the way you might expect it to based on the fundamentals, but over the last several weeks both the market and the economic data have been weak.
The data have been so bad that the negative surprises in the reports are hitting a level only seen 4 other times since 2002. And whether that happens in a bull or bear market, it seems to trigger at least a short-term relief rally.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
It looks like we could be in for a rocky summer. If the S&P 500 can’t make it back above the 50-day EMA then we may want to start being sellers of rallies, and we are due for a rally so get your game plan ready. Should the S&P rally back above the 50-day EMA any time soon, we should be safe to hold onto stocks a while longer.
Good luck, and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up.
Tom Crowley
www.tsptalk.com
Weekly Wrap-Ups Archive
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
A series of poor economic data gave the stock market a one-two punch last week,putting an end to what looked like a promising rally. But Tuesday’s breakout above the new descending trading channel turned out to be a fake-out.
For the TSP, the C-fund was down 2.30% for the week. The S-fund lost 2.91%, and the I-fund was down just 0.11% as the weaker dollar helped it stay buoyant. Bonds (F-fund) gained 0.29%, and the G-fund was up 0.05%.
After a weak May, June is off an inauspicious start as the old axiom, “sell in May and go away", has really played out so far this year.
The S&P 500 is clearly in a downtrend and it closed below the 20 and 50-day EMAs for a third straight day. The20-day EMA is about to move below the 50-day EMA and while that is a bearish sign for the market going forward, it is also an indication of being oversold and we could very well see a relief rally this week.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com
Sentiment is also very bearish. Bearish enough fora relief rally.
I’m not a big fan of following the fundamentals of the economy because the market does not always seem to move the way you might expect it to based on the fundamentals, but over the last several weeks both the market and the economic data have been weak.
The data have been so bad that the negative surprises in the reports are hitting a level only seen 4 other times since 2002. And whether that happens in a bull or bear market, it seems to trigger at least a short-term relief rally.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
It looks like we could be in for a rocky summer. If the S&P 500 can’t make it back above the 50-day EMA then we may want to start being sellers of rallies, and we are due for a rally so get your game plan ready. Should the S&P rally back above the 50-day EMA any time soon, we should be safe to hold onto stocks a while longer.
Good luck, and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up.
Tom Crowley
www.tsptalk.com
Weekly Wrap-Ups Archive
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
