Rebound
Stocks have come roaring back from the recent 3-week pullback that started in February and the major indices have now been up 6 of the last 7 days.
For the TSP, the C-fund gained 2.72% on the week, the S-fund was up 3.32%, and the I-fund gained back 2.86%.
Investors sold bonds to get in on the rally in stocks so the F-fund lost 0.59% last week, and the G-fund added 0.06%.
For the month of March, the C-fund is now down just 0.90%, the S-fund is back to even, and the I-fund is still off 3.35%, but well off its worst levels. The F-fund (bonds) is up 0.02%, and the G-fund has gained 0.21%.
You can see that the S&P 500 made a few bold moves in recapturing the 20 and 50-day EMA's. It has now closed above the recently created descending resistance line, and that could now act as support.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com
Holding that support, and the 20 and 50-day EMA's, will be the key to this rally. If we see another push below those levels, a retest of the March low becomes a good possibility.
One of the main catalysts for the stock market could be the price of oil. Although stocks have rallied for several days while oil has also moved higher, seeing oil move above the recent high (~107) could be too much for the stock market to handle.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com
I'm guessing that 110-115 would be a pyschological barrier for investors.
The recent rally has us all wondering if the market is ready to move to new highs, or if this rally is just an oversold bounce. Being up 6 out of 7 days is not a "dead cat bounce", but as we saw in 2007, we don't want to take our guard down for too long. While we want to take advantage of market rallies, buy and hold investors can get hurt in volatile markets.
Bull markets don't die easily and a retest of the prior highs could be in the cards, but there are no guarantees that it will be anything more than that.
The current economic, geo-politcal and natural (Japan) events could keep things quite volatile for the next few months, so don't look away from your TSP accounts for too long.
Good luck, and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up.
Tom Crowley
www.tsptalk.com
Weekly Wrap-Ups Archive
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Stocks have come roaring back from the recent 3-week pullback that started in February and the major indices have now been up 6 of the last 7 days.
For the TSP, the C-fund gained 2.72% on the week, the S-fund was up 3.32%, and the I-fund gained back 2.86%.
Investors sold bonds to get in on the rally in stocks so the F-fund lost 0.59% last week, and the G-fund added 0.06%.
For the month of March, the C-fund is now down just 0.90%, the S-fund is back to even, and the I-fund is still off 3.35%, but well off its worst levels. The F-fund (bonds) is up 0.02%, and the G-fund has gained 0.21%.
You can see that the S&P 500 made a few bold moves in recapturing the 20 and 50-day EMA's. It has now closed above the recently created descending resistance line, and that could now act as support.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com
Holding that support, and the 20 and 50-day EMA's, will be the key to this rally. If we see another push below those levels, a retest of the March low becomes a good possibility.
One of the main catalysts for the stock market could be the price of oil. Although stocks have rallied for several days while oil has also moved higher, seeing oil move above the recent high (~107) could be too much for the stock market to handle.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com
I'm guessing that 110-115 would be a pyschological barrier for investors.
The recent rally has us all wondering if the market is ready to move to new highs, or if this rally is just an oversold bounce. Being up 6 out of 7 days is not a "dead cat bounce", but as we saw in 2007, we don't want to take our guard down for too long. While we want to take advantage of market rallies, buy and hold investors can get hurt in volatile markets.
Bull markets don't die easily and a retest of the prior highs could be in the cards, but there are no guarantees that it will be anything more than that.
The current economic, geo-politcal and natural (Japan) events could keep things quite volatile for the next few months, so don't look away from your TSP accounts for too long.
Good luck, and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up.
Tom Crowley
www.tsptalk.com
Weekly Wrap-Ups Archive
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
