More gains as the relentless rally continued. The Dow gained 131-points, and unlike on Wednesday, stocks rallied into the close on Thursday - perhaps anticipating the upcoming job numbers (or they were fed a sneak peak at those numbers? Sshh... don't tell anyone.
) Small caps led on the upside. Bonds were up, as was oil and copper, while gold was down.
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The Initial Weekly Jobless Claims came in inline with expectations, possible a good sign for the August Jobs Report which will be reported an hour before the opening bell today. The estimates are looking for a gain of about 720,000 jobs, although Goldman Sachs lowered their estimate from 600K to 500K this week. The unemployment rate is expected to fall from 5.4% to 5.2%.
More impressive internal numbers, and the indices continue to climb, driving many market timers and fundamental analysts a little crazy as the valuations scream higher, and the gains look more and more parabolic on some charts. This is the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 charts going back nearly 40 years.
Trend traders may be positioned best as their disciplined approach tells them to remain in their positions until the trend breaks. They will catch the entire move up. The downside is they usually take a pretty large hit when the charts pull back far enough to break the trend, pushing them out of the position well below their high points.
The buy and holder is also getting every gain they can right now, but unlike market timers and trend traders, they will take the full brunt of any correction or bear market that comes along, and one will eventually come along.
The recent weakness in the dollar has contributed to price increases and it looks like yesterday's low may be a very interesting juncture for the chart. The moving average on this chart seems to have some meaning for UUP / dollar traders, and it is now testing the lower end of that parallel rising trading channel in red.
The timing of the jobs report could be the catalyst that either breaks this chart down, or sends it bouncing off that current support. Whichever way it goes, we could see many prices moving in the opposite direction.
From www.tsp.gov: Some financial markets will be closed on Monday, September 6 in observance of the Labor Day holiday. The Thrift Savings Plan will also be closed. Transactions that would have been processed Monday night (September 6) will be processed Tuesday night (September 7), at Tuesday's closing share prices.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) closed at another record high. I was getting worried since it had been two days since the last one and I wondered if we'd ever see another one. Obviously I'm joking, but you can see that this is not only trading toward the top of the long trading channel, but now it's on top of it suggesting it is even more extended. But there's no rule that tells us when it has to come down or that it has to stay within the channel, so in the meantime, the bulls continue to rack up gains.
The DWCPF (S-fund) broke out again to a new high, but unlike the S&P 500, this one took a couple of months to finally do so. It is nearing the top of its blue rising channel, although it's not quite there yet, but I am still eying those opens gaps below, which do tend to get filled eventually.
A closer look shows those gaps better. My guess is that they will get filled one day, but do you sit on the sidelines waiting for the day that happens? Usually if they don't get filled rather quickly, then it could take weeks or months to do so, so it may not be the best timing mechanism. But it would be nice to have some cash on hand on the days it happens.
The EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) made another new high with another gift from the falling dollar helping it along. It's a good looking chart but it too has a Swiss cheese look to it with several major open gaps below.
The Dow Transportation Index seems to be trying very hard to form a bottom. That cup and handle formation looks very good. It has been a testament to the strength of the market to continue to make new highs while the Dow Transportation index, a market leader, has faltered for months in 2021. I wonder what will happen to the rest of the market if this one starts to move higher again?
The BND (bonds / F-fund) was up yesterday as it trades in a tight range since falling below that resistance line a couple of weeks ago.
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.html
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Thanks for reading. Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
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[TR]
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[TR]
[TD="align: right"][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The Initial Weekly Jobless Claims came in inline with expectations, possible a good sign for the August Jobs Report which will be reported an hour before the opening bell today. The estimates are looking for a gain of about 720,000 jobs, although Goldman Sachs lowered their estimate from 600K to 500K this week. The unemployment rate is expected to fall from 5.4% to 5.2%.
More impressive internal numbers, and the indices continue to climb, driving many market timers and fundamental analysts a little crazy as the valuations scream higher, and the gains look more and more parabolic on some charts. This is the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 charts going back nearly 40 years.
Trend traders may be positioned best as their disciplined approach tells them to remain in their positions until the trend breaks. They will catch the entire move up. The downside is they usually take a pretty large hit when the charts pull back far enough to break the trend, pushing them out of the position well below their high points.
The buy and holder is also getting every gain they can right now, but unlike market timers and trend traders, they will take the full brunt of any correction or bear market that comes along, and one will eventually come along.
The recent weakness in the dollar has contributed to price increases and it looks like yesterday's low may be a very interesting juncture for the chart. The moving average on this chart seems to have some meaning for UUP / dollar traders, and it is now testing the lower end of that parallel rising trading channel in red.
The timing of the jobs report could be the catalyst that either breaks this chart down, or sends it bouncing off that current support. Whichever way it goes, we could see many prices moving in the opposite direction.
From www.tsp.gov: Some financial markets will be closed on Monday, September 6 in observance of the Labor Day holiday. The Thrift Savings Plan will also be closed. Transactions that would have been processed Monday night (September 6) will be processed Tuesday night (September 7), at Tuesday's closing share prices.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) closed at another record high. I was getting worried since it had been two days since the last one and I wondered if we'd ever see another one. Obviously I'm joking, but you can see that this is not only trading toward the top of the long trading channel, but now it's on top of it suggesting it is even more extended. But there's no rule that tells us when it has to come down or that it has to stay within the channel, so in the meantime, the bulls continue to rack up gains.
The DWCPF (S-fund) broke out again to a new high, but unlike the S&P 500, this one took a couple of months to finally do so. It is nearing the top of its blue rising channel, although it's not quite there yet, but I am still eying those opens gaps below, which do tend to get filled eventually.
A closer look shows those gaps better. My guess is that they will get filled one day, but do you sit on the sidelines waiting for the day that happens? Usually if they don't get filled rather quickly, then it could take weeks or months to do so, so it may not be the best timing mechanism. But it would be nice to have some cash on hand on the days it happens.
The EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) made another new high with another gift from the falling dollar helping it along. It's a good looking chart but it too has a Swiss cheese look to it with several major open gaps below.
The Dow Transportation Index seems to be trying very hard to form a bottom. That cup and handle formation looks very good. It has been a testament to the strength of the market to continue to make new highs while the Dow Transportation index, a market leader, has faltered for months in 2021. I wonder what will happen to the rest of the market if this one starts to move higher again?
The BND (bonds / F-fund) was up yesterday as it trades in a tight range since falling below that resistance line a couple of weeks ago.
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.html
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Thanks for reading. Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
