The Fed did not disappoint those looking for some FOMC fireworks yesterday as stocks were all over the place yesterday. After a mixed but mostly lower morning for stocks, the monetary policy and subsequent press conference initially sent the indices soaring higher, but they came crashing down into the close, closing modestly lower and near the lows of the day. Yields were down, which helped the small caps.
[TABLE="align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD="width: 284, align: center"] Daily TSP Funds Return
[TABLE="align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
I was doing a little head scratching when the indices were up over 1% yesterday afternoon despite Jerome Powell saying this, "Inflation is still too high. Further progress in bringing it down is not assured and the path forward is uncertain."
Our TSP Talk Plus ETF System took a big risk and stepped in front of that freight train and traded against what appeared to be an overzealous rally, which worked out well. Not all of these types of trades work, but when they do...
It's a volatile market right now and perhaps the bulls will show up again quickly, but the bear flag that we talked about yesterday that's been forming on the S&P 500 and other charts, suggested that yesterday's intraday rally could run out of steam near the top of the flag, and it did.
If you've been reading these commentaries at for the last couple of weeks, you know that we are still comparing the current charts to that of the July / August 2023 chart, and for now that comparison is alive and well. It will end sooner or later, but as we said the other day, when you find something working in stock market analysis, you should stick with it until the market tells you otherwise.
The 10-year Treasury Yield was down early yesterday, as was the dollar, and nothing the Fed said changed that, but both have been sticky to the upside, and the longer they remain near the highs, the higher the probability that they will eventually breakout above their current ranges. Why they will do that, I don't exactly know, but that's what the charts suggest.
The UUP chart of the dollar looks particularly ready to blow.
Small caps (S-fund) led on the upside with yields slipping, but that may not continue if those yields do eventually break out. They needed that gain to remain positive on the year as they entered yesterday up just 0.01% for the year. The chart is down below in the TSP fund chart .
The market leading Dow Transportation Index fell another 0.30% yesterday, pushing it to its lowest level of the year, and to a price not seen since late November.
Apple reports earnings after the closing bell today and on Friday we'll get the April Jobs report so the volatility should continue.
I wanted to give a shout out to the April TSP Talk AutoTracker winners. Their returns are posted in the forum. Felixthecat had a 3.47% gain in April. Three others members - sammyp, Nordic, and cmil212 had gains over 2% for the month. Gamer rounded out the top 5 with a gain of 1.86%. That's impressive considering all of the TSP stock funds were down at least 3% in April, and the F-fund (bonds) was down 2.5%, so they did it with some good old fashion market timing. Reminder that the AutoTracker is free to join, and our Last Look Report service shows you when members are making moves each day.
Admin Note: Regarding the text alerts problem on Tuesday, apparently it was an issue with Verizon and the T-Mobile networks. Everything seemed to work fine yesterday.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) was down moderately but the bear flag chart formation is getting more concerning for the bulls. Short-term, we could see a move back to the top of the flag if Apple or the jobs report bring in buyers, but the upside is getting riskier the longer the bear flag stays intact.
DWCPF (S-fund) was up on the day, as we talked about above, but they will need yields to remain stable to be attractive to me. The negative reversal and the failure at resistance and the 50-day EMA makes yesterday's gain seem more bearish than bullish.
The EFA (I-fund) was down and it is also testing the lower end of what looks like a bearish flag. Perhaps this finds support again at the 100-day EMA, but if that bear flag breaks, the downside target would be much lower.
BND (bonds / F-fund) is not escaping the bear flag virus that is spreading on the charts. The 20-day EMA is also in the way as it held as resistance yesterday.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.html
Daily Market Commentary Archives
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
[TABLE="align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD="width: 284, align: center"] Daily TSP Funds Return
[TR]
[TD="align: right"][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
I was doing a little head scratching when the indices were up over 1% yesterday afternoon despite Jerome Powell saying this, "Inflation is still too high. Further progress in bringing it down is not assured and the path forward is uncertain."
Our TSP Talk Plus ETF System took a big risk and stepped in front of that freight train and traded against what appeared to be an overzealous rally, which worked out well. Not all of these types of trades work, but when they do...
It's a volatile market right now and perhaps the bulls will show up again quickly, but the bear flag that we talked about yesterday that's been forming on the S&P 500 and other charts, suggested that yesterday's intraday rally could run out of steam near the top of the flag, and it did.
If you've been reading these commentaries at for the last couple of weeks, you know that we are still comparing the current charts to that of the July / August 2023 chart, and for now that comparison is alive and well. It will end sooner or later, but as we said the other day, when you find something working in stock market analysis, you should stick with it until the market tells you otherwise.
The 10-year Treasury Yield was down early yesterday, as was the dollar, and nothing the Fed said changed that, but both have been sticky to the upside, and the longer they remain near the highs, the higher the probability that they will eventually breakout above their current ranges. Why they will do that, I don't exactly know, but that's what the charts suggest.
The UUP chart of the dollar looks particularly ready to blow.
Small caps (S-fund) led on the upside with yields slipping, but that may not continue if those yields do eventually break out. They needed that gain to remain positive on the year as they entered yesterday up just 0.01% for the year. The chart is down below in the TSP fund chart .
The market leading Dow Transportation Index fell another 0.30% yesterday, pushing it to its lowest level of the year, and to a price not seen since late November.
Apple reports earnings after the closing bell today and on Friday we'll get the April Jobs report so the volatility should continue.
I wanted to give a shout out to the April TSP Talk AutoTracker winners. Their returns are posted in the forum. Felixthecat had a 3.47% gain in April. Three others members - sammyp, Nordic, and cmil212 had gains over 2% for the month. Gamer rounded out the top 5 with a gain of 1.86%. That's impressive considering all of the TSP stock funds were down at least 3% in April, and the F-fund (bonds) was down 2.5%, so they did it with some good old fashion market timing. Reminder that the AutoTracker is free to join, and our Last Look Report service shows you when members are making moves each day.
Admin Note: Regarding the text alerts problem on Tuesday, apparently it was an issue with Verizon and the T-Mobile networks. Everything seemed to work fine yesterday.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) was down moderately but the bear flag chart formation is getting more concerning for the bulls. Short-term, we could see a move back to the top of the flag if Apple or the jobs report bring in buyers, but the upside is getting riskier the longer the bear flag stays intact.
DWCPF (S-fund) was up on the day, as we talked about above, but they will need yields to remain stable to be attractive to me. The negative reversal and the failure at resistance and the 50-day EMA makes yesterday's gain seem more bearish than bullish.
The EFA (I-fund) was down and it is also testing the lower end of what looks like a bearish flag. Perhaps this finds support again at the 100-day EMA, but if that bear flag breaks, the downside target would be much lower.
BND (bonds / F-fund) is not escaping the bear flag virus that is spreading on the charts. The 20-day EMA is also in the way as it held as resistance yesterday.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.html
Daily Market Commentary Archives
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
