What a day! Between the wild action in the stock market, and the craziness going on with the TSP website, not to mention some technical issues on my end that popped up out of nowhere, Thursday was quite the day. A morning shakeout for stocks after a guidance warning from Microsoft had the bears excited, but after an hour or two the bulls took charge and by late afternoon there was no stopping them. The Dow gained 435-points, and we saw gains near 2% to 3% in several indices. Bonds (F) were up slightly and the dollar was down sharply.
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So the market resumed last week's upside momentum after a two day pause. At this point it is the battle between those who believe this move is a temporary bear market rally, and those who think we put in the lows already. The TSP Talk Plus subscribers, as well as Intrepid Timer and RevShark subscribers, have their plans and / or system signals in place so, being the crazy week that it has become, I'll go right into the TSP developments, and post a chart or two below that.
Once again the folks in the forum are doing a great job reporting on the issues they face, and for some reason some people had no issues and others can't get started. Some have already had IFT's processed under the new system. Here's the link to that forum thread once again:
https://www.tsptalk.com/mb/tsp-talk-news-etc-/39022-new-website-now-active-sign-up-now.html
The new website is very clunky and a little user unfriendly so far, but it may just be a learning curve that will take some time. One thing that is not very apparent compared to the old site is finding the current share prices. It used to be that you could go right to this link, and all of the prices were laid out nice and neatly.
https://www.tsp.gov/fund-performance/share-price-history/
Now you have to login to view it, and the link does not seem to be a direct link to a specific URL, that I can see. I don't even know yet if they will post the daily prices around 7PM ET everyday as they had been or if will be later or the following day. I'm learning as we go.
Once I do get the prices I will continue to update this page to show you the current prices, but as I've said, they've made it more difficult for me to acquire and enter those prices and I hope I can still post them at the usual time.
https://www.tsptalk.com/tracker/tsp_fund_price.php
I am actually having a technical issue with the AutoTracker, which seems to be oddly unrelated, and a coincidence? Once I get that fixed, this page will be ready again with the new prices and returns. I will be working on that bug on Thursday night so that it shows the current data.
https://www.tsptalk.com/tsp_share_prices.php
As for the market, a bear market rally is getting long in the tooth but they do tend to go longer than anyone expects, and of course if this is not a bear market rally but instead a major low being formed, then we could have a lot surprised, underinvested people out there, and that could provide new cash into the market to keep the rally going.
You can see the strong action, but potential obstacles for the C (S&P 500) and S (DWCPF) funds. The 50-day EMA are usually tough spots during a bear market.
Again, I have to make this short to work on those share price and returns issues. Thanks for your patience!
We'll get the May jobs report this morning (Friday) and estimates are looking for a gain of about 300,000 new jobs. Will this report be the catalyst to stop this bear market rally, or will it send above resistance and into another gear higher?
I'll leave these links up during the shutdown for reference. Hopefully next week we'll have all of the issues worked out and we'll go back to just charts and analysis.
https://www.tsp.gov/my-account-temporarily-unavailable/
Notice that it says "check back here to see when the new My Account is available", which means they don't have a specific date yet.
Rather than go over all again, here are some links to some key dates and fund changes being made.
https://www.tsp.gov/new-tsp-features/key-transition-dates
https://www.fedsmith.com/2022/05/10/tsp-mutual-fund-window-officially-beginning-in-june/
https://www.tsp.gov/new-tsp-features/summary-of-changes/#Investments
I may take a day or two off from the daily commentary with a couple of brief write ups while the TSP is down. My TSP Talk Plus ETF System will continue to trade so there could be text alerts sent for those, but I may take advantage of this shutdown by cutting down on the commentaries while the TSP is shutdown.
RevShark is a pro trader outside of the TSO and he's not taking time off so we will likely post his daily general market commentary for his subscribers each morning, and the Intrepid Timer service also has ETF trades so I assume he will keep subscribers up to date although the daily write ups may be limited during the TSP shutdown.
I will shut down the AutoTracker for IFT entries after noon on Thursday the 26th to keep in sync with the TSP. I don't know when the TSP will be coming back online so I don't know how long I will restrict trades, but I will keep an eye out for information. If you hear anything, please let me know. tom @ ... etc. Thanks!
At this point we (TSP Talk) have decided not to incorporate the new mutual funds being offered by the the TSP into our AutoTracker.
The reasons being that there will be some 5000 options, and it would be too daunting of a task to program that in. Plus the fees involved (More here) would also impact the return of allocated in these funds, and so we would not be able to accurately reflect this in our returns.
So, for now, we keep the Autotracker as is. If we decide that some of the Premium Services will use a couple of these new funds, we may incorporate those funds at some point into the Autotracker just to keep the services accountable by accurately tracking their return, but we still do not know what those funds are so we can not speculate at this time.
We will keep you up to date as we get more information.
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.html
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Thanks for reading. Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
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[TR]
[TD="align: center"]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD="width: 338, align: center"] Daily TSP Funds Return
[TR]
[TD="align: right"][/TD]
[/TR]
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[TD="bgcolor: #eeeeee"][/TD]
So the market resumed last week's upside momentum after a two day pause. At this point it is the battle between those who believe this move is a temporary bear market rally, and those who think we put in the lows already. The TSP Talk Plus subscribers, as well as Intrepid Timer and RevShark subscribers, have their plans and / or system signals in place so, being the crazy week that it has become, I'll go right into the TSP developments, and post a chart or two below that.
Once again the folks in the forum are doing a great job reporting on the issues they face, and for some reason some people had no issues and others can't get started. Some have already had IFT's processed under the new system. Here's the link to that forum thread once again:
https://www.tsptalk.com/mb/tsp-talk-news-etc-/39022-new-website-now-active-sign-up-now.html
The new website is very clunky and a little user unfriendly so far, but it may just be a learning curve that will take some time. One thing that is not very apparent compared to the old site is finding the current share prices. It used to be that you could go right to this link, and all of the prices were laid out nice and neatly.
https://www.tsp.gov/fund-performance/share-price-history/
Now you have to login to view it, and the link does not seem to be a direct link to a specific URL, that I can see. I don't even know yet if they will post the daily prices around 7PM ET everyday as they had been or if will be later or the following day. I'm learning as we go.
Once I do get the prices I will continue to update this page to show you the current prices, but as I've said, they've made it more difficult for me to acquire and enter those prices and I hope I can still post them at the usual time.
https://www.tsptalk.com/tracker/tsp_fund_price.php
I am actually having a technical issue with the AutoTracker, which seems to be oddly unrelated, and a coincidence? Once I get that fixed, this page will be ready again with the new prices and returns. I will be working on that bug on Thursday night so that it shows the current data.
https://www.tsptalk.com/tsp_share_prices.php
As for the market, a bear market rally is getting long in the tooth but they do tend to go longer than anyone expects, and of course if this is not a bear market rally but instead a major low being formed, then we could have a lot surprised, underinvested people out there, and that could provide new cash into the market to keep the rally going.
You can see the strong action, but potential obstacles for the C (S&P 500) and S (DWCPF) funds. The 50-day EMA are usually tough spots during a bear market.
Again, I have to make this short to work on those share price and returns issues. Thanks for your patience!
We'll get the May jobs report this morning (Friday) and estimates are looking for a gain of about 300,000 new jobs. Will this report be the catalyst to stop this bear market rally, or will it send above resistance and into another gear higher?
I'll leave these links up during the shutdown for reference. Hopefully next week we'll have all of the issues worked out and we'll go back to just charts and analysis.
https://www.tsp.gov/my-account-temporarily-unavailable/
Notice that it says "check back here to see when the new My Account is available", which means they don't have a specific date yet.
Rather than go over all again, here are some links to some key dates and fund changes being made.
https://www.tsp.gov/new-tsp-features/key-transition-dates
https://www.fedsmith.com/2022/05/10/tsp-mutual-fund-window-officially-beginning-in-june/
https://www.tsp.gov/new-tsp-features/summary-of-changes/#Investments
I may take a day or two off from the daily commentary with a couple of brief write ups while the TSP is down. My TSP Talk Plus ETF System will continue to trade so there could be text alerts sent for those, but I may take advantage of this shutdown by cutting down on the commentaries while the TSP is shutdown.
RevShark is a pro trader outside of the TSO and he's not taking time off so we will likely post his daily general market commentary for his subscribers each morning, and the Intrepid Timer service also has ETF trades so I assume he will keep subscribers up to date although the daily write ups may be limited during the TSP shutdown.
I will shut down the AutoTracker for IFT entries after noon on Thursday the 26th to keep in sync with the TSP. I don't know when the TSP will be coming back online so I don't know how long I will restrict trades, but I will keep an eye out for information. If you hear anything, please let me know. tom @ ... etc. Thanks!
At this point we (TSP Talk) have decided not to incorporate the new mutual funds being offered by the the TSP into our AutoTracker.
The reasons being that there will be some 5000 options, and it would be too daunting of a task to program that in. Plus the fees involved (More here) would also impact the return of allocated in these funds, and so we would not be able to accurately reflect this in our returns.
So, for now, we keep the Autotracker as is. If we decide that some of the Premium Services will use a couple of these new funds, we may incorporate those funds at some point into the Autotracker just to keep the services accountable by accurately tracking their return, but we still do not know what those funds are so we can not speculate at this time.
We will keep you up to date as we get more information.
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.html
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Thanks for reading. Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
