Stocks opened lower on Thursday but spent the rest of the day trying to rally back as the 3-day pullback brought in some wannabe dip buyers, but as we headed into the Apple and Amazon earnings after the bell, and this morning's jobs report, the midday rally faded a bit and stocks settled lower. A breakout in the 10-year yield didn't help.
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After the bell Apple and Amazon reported mixed results. Amazon was up big after hours on a big beat and Apple beat estimates but it was still lower than a year ago and it brought in some selling after hours.
To be honest, I had to leave my office yesterday a few hours into the trading day so I missed much of the action but I see it was mostly churning in front of those earnings reports. And, with the jobs report coming out this morning, there may have been tentative buying or selling and we saw that in the very light trading volume.
I will make this quick because I didn't get a good feel for the action being out of the office and traveling for most of the day. Today's reaction to Apple and Amazon plus the jobs report will help me get my head back in the game.
Apple is a Dow stock so the after hours selling could put pressure on that index but Amazon is not part of the Dow and could give the S&P 500 and Nasdaq a lift. We'll see. It may depend on the jobs report.
I did see the gap up in the yield on the 10-year Treasury yesterday, and this has been putting pressure on the stock market. I was a little surprised that we didn't see some kind of double top dip first, but perhaps the jobs report will swat it back down.
The action sent the F-fund down to new lows as higher yields mean lower prices for bonds. BND (bonds / F-fund):
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With not much more to add I wanted to post this chart that was created in the late 1800's that has an interesting record of the very broad cycles of the market. The years posted represent the end of that year, so for example it was predicting a major peak at the end of 1981, 1999, 2019, etc., and major lows at the end of 1996, 2005, and actually, 2023 - to name a few.
It's called the Benner Cycle if you want to read more about it.
The July jobs report comes out before the opening bell and estimates are looking for a gain of 200,000 and an unemployment rate of 3.6%.
I apologize for the brevity of today's commentary.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) fell modestly after trying to battle off its lows and the break below its 20-day EMA. Can it rebound before filling in the open gap that everyone sees? Maybe, if the jobs report and earnings justify the move, but the both the bulls and bears probably want to see that get filled before it makes its next major move.
DWCPF (S-fund) is also dancing near some key support making tomorrow's action that much more important for the small caps.
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.html
Daily Market Commentary Archives
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Thanks so much for reading! Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
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After the bell Apple and Amazon reported mixed results. Amazon was up big after hours on a big beat and Apple beat estimates but it was still lower than a year ago and it brought in some selling after hours.
To be honest, I had to leave my office yesterday a few hours into the trading day so I missed much of the action but I see it was mostly churning in front of those earnings reports. And, with the jobs report coming out this morning, there may have been tentative buying or selling and we saw that in the very light trading volume.
I will make this quick because I didn't get a good feel for the action being out of the office and traveling for most of the day. Today's reaction to Apple and Amazon plus the jobs report will help me get my head back in the game.
Apple is a Dow stock so the after hours selling could put pressure on that index but Amazon is not part of the Dow and could give the S&P 500 and Nasdaq a lift. We'll see. It may depend on the jobs report.
I did see the gap up in the yield on the 10-year Treasury yesterday, and this has been putting pressure on the stock market. I was a little surprised that we didn't see some kind of double top dip first, but perhaps the jobs report will swat it back down.
The action sent the F-fund down to new lows as higher yields mean lower prices for bonds. BND (bonds / F-fund):
With not much more to add I wanted to post this chart that was created in the late 1800's that has an interesting record of the very broad cycles of the market. The years posted represent the end of that year, so for example it was predicting a major peak at the end of 1981, 1999, 2019, etc., and major lows at the end of 1996, 2005, and actually, 2023 - to name a few.
It's called the Benner Cycle if you want to read more about it.
The July jobs report comes out before the opening bell and estimates are looking for a gain of 200,000 and an unemployment rate of 3.6%.
I apologize for the brevity of today's commentary.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) fell modestly after trying to battle off its lows and the break below its 20-day EMA. Can it rebound before filling in the open gap that everyone sees? Maybe, if the jobs report and earnings justify the move, but the both the bulls and bears probably want to see that get filled before it makes its next major move.
DWCPF (S-fund) is also dancing near some key support making tomorrow's action that much more important for the small caps.
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.html
Daily Market Commentary Archives
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Thanks so much for reading! Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
