]More of the same for stocks to start the new week, and the bottom callers will have to wait at least another day. The price of oil has weighed heavily on the markets and we may just have to wait this out, but it is Tuesday and the indices are testing the recent lows, so can we see some kind of Turnaround today? Bonds were down along with stocks. The dollar continues to move higher along with many other commodities. tech, small caps, and the I-fund continue to get pounded.
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The S&P 500 (C-fund) was slammed for a 3rd straight day after failing at the 200-day EMA and the resistance line of the top of that channel. 4201 is now the low close for the year and the lowest close since last June. Trading volume was elevated and we're probably due for another 4 billion share day to mark a short-term low. But this is a headline driven market right now and there's no guarantees that technical analysis will play out cleanly.
The DWCPF (small caps / S-fund) continues to get smashed as it moves toward the recent intraday lows. We'll see if that support line can bring in some buyers just below 1800.
The EFA (I-fund) made new lows as the dangers in Europe remain high with the fighting going on in their backyards. It may be too early to consider this, but the I-fund may get the biggest bounce if / when we get some dovish news from Ukraine. It would take about a 10% rally just to get it back to the bottom of that broken support line.
BND (Bonds / F-fund) did not go up on a day when stocks were falling so perhaps a good sign for the economic situation with yields moving up, but maybe not a good sign on the inflation front.
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.html
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Thanks for reading. We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
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The indices have been beaten down mercilessly but we've been in a down trending market basically all year, and even longer for some of the smaller cap indices, so buying dips, calling lows, etc., is more dangerous than buying them in a bullish trending market. However, when we do get relief it may be explosive so at some point the risk / reward will get better. When that is, we can only guess, but it will likely be headline driven -- and possibly short-lived.
We had another monster rally in the oil market, and once again it felt like another blow off top as it closed well off the highs. Of course the prior two blow off tops that we had (red arrows) did not turn out to be tops at all so chart technicians are shrugging over what to expect next.
The short-term indicators are showing potential signs of life, but it's way too early to say, and I'm not saying this is a low. At this point it's more about emotion than anything practical. But the higher lows in some of the indicators that I watch are coming after the S&P 500 just made it's lowest close of the year. These are somewhat slow moving indicators and they may end up a lot lower after today, but there is a chance that we're seeing a positive divergence showing up.
Right now with volatility so high and swings so wide there's additional risk in the market, but at some point there will relief and it could be explosive. If you have some cash, the question is whether to buy now or wait. With 2 IFT's in a month and still 18 trading days left in the month, picking your spot to get in is not an easy task. In the prior two months, both January and February, we didn't get any meaningful rallies until the final week of the month.
On March 12th Russia will no longer be allowed to use SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications) which plays a crucial role in networking between world banks. This could be a big disrupter in the global economy. Has the market priced this in?
According to thestreet.com, "Banning all Russian banks from accessing SWIFT could also weaken the dollar internationally, as the country cut the dollar from its sovereign wealth fund in 2021 as a way of distancing its economy from the effect of potential U.S. sanctions."
Does that mean it's time for gold and silver, which have been rallying steadily, to shift into into another gear?
We had another monster rally in the oil market, and once again it felt like another blow off top as it closed well off the highs. Of course the prior two blow off tops that we had (red arrows) did not turn out to be tops at all so chart technicians are shrugging over what to expect next.
The short-term indicators are showing potential signs of life, but it's way too early to say, and I'm not saying this is a low. At this point it's more about emotion than anything practical. But the higher lows in some of the indicators that I watch are coming after the S&P 500 just made it's lowest close of the year. These are somewhat slow moving indicators and they may end up a lot lower after today, but there is a chance that we're seeing a positive divergence showing up.
Right now with volatility so high and swings so wide there's additional risk in the market, but at some point there will relief and it could be explosive. If you have some cash, the question is whether to buy now or wait. With 2 IFT's in a month and still 18 trading days left in the month, picking your spot to get in is not an easy task. In the prior two months, both January and February, we didn't get any meaningful rallies until the final week of the month.
On March 12th Russia will no longer be allowed to use SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications) which plays a crucial role in networking between world banks. This could be a big disrupter in the global economy. Has the market priced this in?
According to thestreet.com, "Banning all Russian banks from accessing SWIFT could also weaken the dollar internationally, as the country cut the dollar from its sovereign wealth fund in 2021 as a way of distancing its economy from the effect of potential U.S. sanctions."
Does that mean it's time for gold and silver, which have been rallying steadily, to shift into into another gear?
The S&P 500 (C-fund) was slammed for a 3rd straight day after failing at the 200-day EMA and the resistance line of the top of that channel. 4201 is now the low close for the year and the lowest close since last June. Trading volume was elevated and we're probably due for another 4 billion share day to mark a short-term low. But this is a headline driven market right now and there's no guarantees that technical analysis will play out cleanly.
The DWCPF (small caps / S-fund) continues to get smashed as it moves toward the recent intraday lows. We'll see if that support line can bring in some buyers just below 1800.
The EFA (I-fund) made new lows as the dangers in Europe remain high with the fighting going on in their backyards. It may be too early to consider this, but the I-fund may get the biggest bounce if / when we get some dovish news from Ukraine. It would take about a 10% rally just to get it back to the bottom of that broken support line.
BND (Bonds / F-fund) did not go up on a day when stocks were falling so perhaps a good sign for the economic situation with yields moving up, but maybe not a good sign on the inflation front.
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.html
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Thanks for reading. We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
