It was a mixed day for stocks to start the week and after a positive open, all of the indices drifted off their morning highs and after some late selling, closed at the lows of the day. We did get a second day where the S&P 500 took a breather while small caps outperformed, but in recent weeks the small caps haven't been able to sustain that divergence for much longer than a day or two. Bonds were down as yields moved higher. Also, make sure you check your IFT confirmations! More below.
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I've been waiting for the S and I-funds to start outperforming the C-fund because of the recent, more favorable, chart formations. Yesterday we saw a little of that, but one day doesn't make a trend, and I've been fooled before by a one day move. But let's take a quick peak at the C and S fund charts to illustrate what I'm talking about.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) was down 0.38% yesterday with that large open gap sitting just under 5000. The trend has been great - steadily higher, but if I posted a longer-term chart it would show how extended the index is. Filling in that open gap would be a healthy move but be careful if the green 20-day EMA gets taken out.
DWCPF (S-fund) on the other hand was up 0.38% and is now back over the December peak after a failed breakout earlier this month. There is an open gap below on this chart as well, but the two month long sideways consolidation makes this a more favorable looking chart, as long as it can hold above its 20-day EMA and preferably above that red dashed line, which was the December high, and there is a bullish flag being formed as well (blue.) This too could pullback and fill its open gap, but this chart has a little more support between where it is and that open gap near 1965, compared to the S&P 500 chart.
OK, I want to get to an issue I had with the TSP on Monday morning. TSP Talk Plus subscribers and Forum members may have read my rant already. If you read no further, I'll cut to the chase and tell you that we really need to check our transaction confirmations from the TSP to make sure your transaction was processed, when it says it was processed.
I went to make an interfund transfer (IFT) on Monday morning but I got a warning that it can't be done because I had already made two IFTs in February. I had not. I made one IFT in the middle of the month but before that I had made an IFT 42 minutes before the 12 noon ET transaction deadline on January 31, but the TSP did not process it until the following business day, February 1.
I actually made a little more money with that one day delay in the trade, but the delay also used one of my February transfers instead of a January transfer, so when I went to make a move yesterday, I was denied.
It happened to several other people based on the feedback I received. I was even made aware of this possible issue from a subscriber who noticed this on February 2nd. My thoughtless response was that it worked for me so it must have been something they did wrong. Nope! I was impacted as well.
So it's important to check, but here's the disturbing part. My wife and I got on the phone to the TSP to get some answers, and they couldn't have been less helpful.
First the person I talked to was trying to tell me that the deadline was 11 AM ET, not noon. I believe their call center is in New Orleans so I asked if she meant central time? -- and they said no, ET. This person may have been new, I don't know, but they did not realize they were talking to someone who has been doing dozens of these transactions for the last 20 years.
Once I got them off the 11 o'clock deadline excuse, they tried to tell me that January 31 was a Sunday and that's why it didn't process. I was certain it was not. It was a Wednesday, but they never relented and put me on hold. Looking at a calendar, I assume they were looking at December 31 on the January calendar.
After getting back on the phone, I offered to give the transaction confirmation number that came with my confirmation email, they said they had no way to look it up. Then why give us a number?
Their unapologetic bottom line was, even if there was a problem, they have no way to fix it, nor could they give me another IFT so I could make my trade.
These call center employees may be new or might not get a lot of training and they did say they asked their supervisors. It wasn't their fault but they either wouldn't or couldn't help, nor would they give us a name or number of someone who might know more about transactions. But clearly any transactions made on January 31st before the IFT deadline did not get processed on the day it was supposed to.
Bottom line, I am going to start being more careful about checking and confirming my transactions in the days following a trade, although the TSP doesn't seem to have the ability to fix things even if we do catch it early. Sigh!
OK, I digress.
I spoke about the C and S funds above, so let's get to the EFA (I-fund) which was down slightly on Monday. The dollar was down but it's tough to say if that helped or not. The overseas markets may have been down yesterday more with a flat dollar, I'm not sure. This is a decent looking chart and a gap fill down to the breakout lines could occur but won't hurt the technical picture unless if falls back below 76 or even 75.
BND (bonds / F-fund) just can't get back above its 50-day EMA and that's a reason to be cautious on bonds and the F-fund.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.html
Daily Market Commentary Archives
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
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[TD="width: 338, align: center"] Daily TSP Funds Return
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[/TR]
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I've been waiting for the S and I-funds to start outperforming the C-fund because of the recent, more favorable, chart formations. Yesterday we saw a little of that, but one day doesn't make a trend, and I've been fooled before by a one day move. But let's take a quick peak at the C and S fund charts to illustrate what I'm talking about.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) was down 0.38% yesterday with that large open gap sitting just under 5000. The trend has been great - steadily higher, but if I posted a longer-term chart it would show how extended the index is. Filling in that open gap would be a healthy move but be careful if the green 20-day EMA gets taken out.
DWCPF (S-fund) on the other hand was up 0.38% and is now back over the December peak after a failed breakout earlier this month. There is an open gap below on this chart as well, but the two month long sideways consolidation makes this a more favorable looking chart, as long as it can hold above its 20-day EMA and preferably above that red dashed line, which was the December high, and there is a bullish flag being formed as well (blue.) This too could pullback and fill its open gap, but this chart has a little more support between where it is and that open gap near 1965, compared to the S&P 500 chart.
OK, I want to get to an issue I had with the TSP on Monday morning. TSP Talk Plus subscribers and Forum members may have read my rant already. If you read no further, I'll cut to the chase and tell you that we really need to check our transaction confirmations from the TSP to make sure your transaction was processed, when it says it was processed.
I went to make an interfund transfer (IFT) on Monday morning but I got a warning that it can't be done because I had already made two IFTs in February. I had not. I made one IFT in the middle of the month but before that I had made an IFT 42 minutes before the 12 noon ET transaction deadline on January 31, but the TSP did not process it until the following business day, February 1.
I actually made a little more money with that one day delay in the trade, but the delay also used one of my February transfers instead of a January transfer, so when I went to make a move yesterday, I was denied.
It happened to several other people based on the feedback I received. I was even made aware of this possible issue from a subscriber who noticed this on February 2nd. My thoughtless response was that it worked for me so it must have been something they did wrong. Nope! I was impacted as well.
So it's important to check, but here's the disturbing part. My wife and I got on the phone to the TSP to get some answers, and they couldn't have been less helpful.
First the person I talked to was trying to tell me that the deadline was 11 AM ET, not noon. I believe their call center is in New Orleans so I asked if she meant central time? -- and they said no, ET. This person may have been new, I don't know, but they did not realize they were talking to someone who has been doing dozens of these transactions for the last 20 years.
Once I got them off the 11 o'clock deadline excuse, they tried to tell me that January 31 was a Sunday and that's why it didn't process. I was certain it was not. It was a Wednesday, but they never relented and put me on hold. Looking at a calendar, I assume they were looking at December 31 on the January calendar.
After getting back on the phone, I offered to give the transaction confirmation number that came with my confirmation email, they said they had no way to look it up. Then why give us a number?
Their unapologetic bottom line was, even if there was a problem, they have no way to fix it, nor could they give me another IFT so I could make my trade.
These call center employees may be new or might not get a lot of training and they did say they asked their supervisors. It wasn't their fault but they either wouldn't or couldn't help, nor would they give us a name or number of someone who might know more about transactions. But clearly any transactions made on January 31st before the IFT deadline did not get processed on the day it was supposed to.
Bottom line, I am going to start being more careful about checking and confirming my transactions in the days following a trade, although the TSP doesn't seem to have the ability to fix things even if we do catch it early. Sigh!
OK, I digress.
I spoke about the C and S funds above, so let's get to the EFA (I-fund) which was down slightly on Monday. The dollar was down but it's tough to say if that helped or not. The overseas markets may have been down yesterday more with a flat dollar, I'm not sure. This is a decent looking chart and a gap fill down to the breakout lines could occur but won't hurt the technical picture unless if falls back below 76 or even 75.
BND (bonds / F-fund) just can't get back above its 50-day EMA and that's a reason to be cautious on bonds and the F-fund.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.html
Daily Market Commentary Archives
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
