Thursday was another session where the story during the day was turned on its head in the after hours trading. The Dow lost 518-points on the day, but the 112-point loss in the S&P 500 was cut in half after hours when we got strong earnings out of Amazon. So what you see below may not be what is happening right now. It's a fast moving market. Bonds yields were up sending bond prices down, and the dollar continues to break down.
[TABLE="align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD="width: 338, align: center"] Daily TSP Funds Return
[TABLE="align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TD="align: left"] Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)
[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]
[/TD]
[TD="width: 231, align: left"] 2,776.91
-235.34 (-7.81%)
At close: 04:00PM EST
[/TD]
[TD="width: 256, align: left"] 3,284.86
+507.95 (+18.29%)
After hours: 4:52PM EST [/TD]
[TD="width: 231, align: left"]
[/TD]
[TD="width: 256, align: left"]
[/TD]
[TD="width: 231, align: left"] S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) [/TD]
[TD="width: 256, align: left"]
[/TD]
[TD="width: 231"] 446.72
-10.63 (-2.32%)
At close: 04:00PM EST
[/TD]
[TD="width: 256"] 451.49
+4.89 (+1.10%)
After hours: 04:53PM EST [/TD]
[TD="width: 231, align: left"]
[/TD]
[TD="width: 256, align: left"]
[/TD]
[TD="width: 231, align: left"] QQQ Trust (Naz 100) [/TD]
[TD="width: 256, align: left"]
[/TD]
[TD="width: 231, align: left"] 353.55
-14.94 (-4.05%)
At close: 04:00PM EST
[/TD]
[TD="width: 256, align: left"] 360.91
+7.36 (+2.08%)
After hours: 04:53PM EST [/TD]
Update after writing this: The 500 point after hours gain in Amazon was fading a bit as they got into their conference call. It was up closer to 350 just before 6 PM ET when the after hours trading closes.
Amazon was probably the last of the big market moving earnings reports that we will get, although there are plenty of companies yet still to report. Maybe we will get some stability afterward, but the charts do still indicate a possible test of the lows coming, unless the force of Amazon can turn the ship back around on Friday.
The test will be if the bears look to sell an early rally on Friday, and of course the jobs report could change the tone of the market again before the opening bell, so keep your seat belts tightly fastened
The jobs report consensus estimates are looking for a gain of 180,000 jobs being added, but there are some estimates as low as a loss of 400,000 jobs. The unemployment rate is expected to be 3.9%. Hourly wages are expected to rise by 0.5%.
The yield on the 10-year was up and knocked on the door of breaking out of that bull flag yesterday. If that happens, I would think tech won't be as happy as it looked in after hours trading yesterday.
The dollar was down for a 5th straight day. My question is, why was it up before that? Until the Fed actually starts tightening, inflation is going to get worse.
I'll post the charts down below but they will have changed a lot since yesterday's close so they may not be telling the full story. Today's close is key.
Admin note: While I like volatility for the trade setup opportunities, it can be draining to watch positions go up and down so quickly, or go up without you. I have some plans on Friday that will help clear my mind so I won't be in the office after the TSP deadline (noon ET). If you email me I will get back to you later in the day. Sorry for any inconvenience.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) was down sharply, but after hours it was getting back about half of those losses, so the chart is sort of meaningless, but as long as it trades below Tuesday's high, the bears should still have an advantage.
The DWCPF (small caps / S-fund) is in the same boat. The chart looks bad but we have to wait to see what yesterday's after hours move does to it.
The EFA (I-fund) fell below the 200-day EMA, and whenever that is the case it has to prove itself. A test of the lows already occurred here, but a triple test is not out of the question. If it can recapture the 200-day EMA then the bulls may get more interested again.
BND (Bonds / F-fund) was down and the chart gets uglier every day. At some point it may get so bad that it is worth a play, but we just got a breakdown yesterday so it may be too early for that.
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.html
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Thanks for reading. Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
[TABLE="align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD="width: 338, align: center"] Daily TSP Funds Return
[TR]
[TD="align: right"][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
If you don't like what you are seeing in the market, just wait a few minutes and things might change.
That's the theme of this week as the whipsaws continues. Google shot the market up on Wednesday. Facebook killed it on Thursday, and now as Amazon and Snap were skyrocketing after hours pushing the futures up significantly once again. Amazon was up about $500 a share after hours as I write this. Snap was up over 50%.
It's nice to know that the U.S. markets are determined by about a half dozen stocks. The bear market outside of those stocks is going almost unnoticed by the indices and the media that strictly follow the indices. Stability is not the word of the day.
I showed the crazy losses that we saw after hours on Wednesday after Facebook reported earnings. Here's some after hours and futures quotes shortly after the market closed on Thursday when Amazon reported:
That's the theme of this week as the whipsaws continues. Google shot the market up on Wednesday. Facebook killed it on Thursday, and now as Amazon and Snap were skyrocketing after hours pushing the futures up significantly once again. Amazon was up about $500 a share after hours as I write this. Snap was up over 50%.
It's nice to know that the U.S. markets are determined by about a half dozen stocks. The bear market outside of those stocks is going almost unnoticed by the indices and the media that strictly follow the indices. Stability is not the word of the day.
I showed the crazy losses that we saw after hours on Wednesday after Facebook reported earnings. Here's some after hours and futures quotes shortly after the market closed on Thursday when Amazon reported:
[TD="align: left"] Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)
[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]
[/TD]
[TD="width: 231, align: left"] 2,776.91
-235.34 (-7.81%)
At close: 04:00PM EST
[/TD]
[TD="width: 256, align: left"] 3,284.86
+507.95 (+18.29%)
After hours: 4:52PM EST [/TD]
[TD="width: 231, align: left"]
[/TD]
[TD="width: 256, align: left"]
[/TD]
[TD="width: 231, align: left"] S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) [/TD]
[TD="width: 256, align: left"]
[/TD]
[TD="width: 231"] 446.72
-10.63 (-2.32%)
At close: 04:00PM EST
[/TD]
[TD="width: 256"] 451.49
+4.89 (+1.10%)
After hours: 04:53PM EST [/TD]
[TD="width: 231, align: left"]
[/TD]
[TD="width: 256, align: left"]
[/TD]
[TD="width: 231, align: left"] QQQ Trust (Naz 100) [/TD]
[TD="width: 256, align: left"]
[/TD]
[TD="width: 231, align: left"] 353.55
-14.94 (-4.05%)
At close: 04:00PM EST
[/TD]
[TD="width: 256, align: left"] 360.91
+7.36 (+2.08%)
After hours: 04:53PM EST [/TD]
Update after writing this: The 500 point after hours gain in Amazon was fading a bit as they got into their conference call. It was up closer to 350 just before 6 PM ET when the after hours trading closes.
Amazon was probably the last of the big market moving earnings reports that we will get, although there are plenty of companies yet still to report. Maybe we will get some stability afterward, but the charts do still indicate a possible test of the lows coming, unless the force of Amazon can turn the ship back around on Friday.
The test will be if the bears look to sell an early rally on Friday, and of course the jobs report could change the tone of the market again before the opening bell, so keep your seat belts tightly fastened
The jobs report consensus estimates are looking for a gain of 180,000 jobs being added, but there are some estimates as low as a loss of 400,000 jobs. The unemployment rate is expected to be 3.9%. Hourly wages are expected to rise by 0.5%.
The yield on the 10-year was up and knocked on the door of breaking out of that bull flag yesterday. If that happens, I would think tech won't be as happy as it looked in after hours trading yesterday.
The dollar was down for a 5th straight day. My question is, why was it up before that? Until the Fed actually starts tightening, inflation is going to get worse.
I'll post the charts down below but they will have changed a lot since yesterday's close so they may not be telling the full story. Today's close is key.
Admin note: While I like volatility for the trade setup opportunities, it can be draining to watch positions go up and down so quickly, or go up without you. I have some plans on Friday that will help clear my mind so I won't be in the office after the TSP deadline (noon ET). If you email me I will get back to you later in the day. Sorry for any inconvenience.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) was down sharply, but after hours it was getting back about half of those losses, so the chart is sort of meaningless, but as long as it trades below Tuesday's high, the bears should still have an advantage.
The DWCPF (small caps / S-fund) is in the same boat. The chart looks bad but we have to wait to see what yesterday's after hours move does to it.
The EFA (I-fund) fell below the 200-day EMA, and whenever that is the case it has to prove itself. A test of the lows already occurred here, but a triple test is not out of the question. If it can recapture the 200-day EMA then the bulls may get more interested again.
BND (Bonds / F-fund) was down and the chart gets uglier every day. At some point it may get so bad that it is worth a play, but we just got a breakdown yesterday so it may be too early for that.
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.html
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Thanks for reading. Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
