Stocks were up big on Friday and Monday but the share price below do not include the gains on Monday because of the holiday. They will be incorporated into Tuesday's share prices. Trading volume was very light yesterday because some banks and the bond market were closed. BND did trade showing a slight loss in bonds as the bond futures had a small loss on Monday.
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The bulls appear to be in full control as we see the charts breaking out to new highs. It was a light volume holiday trading day because of the bond market being closed, but a gain is a gain, and we'll see how investors react to this gain when everyone is back to work.
According to sentimenTrader.com's October seasonality chart, we are in a pocket of a positive seasonal bias this week, but that changes next week.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
Even with the bond market closed, the futures market indicated some minor strength in yields again and, with yields rising recently, the probability of an interest rate cut at the Fed's November meeting is down to 86%, and the chances of a 0.50% cut has gone to 0%. But that hasn't stopped investors yet from buying with both hand.
The TSP Fund Index charts down below show breakouts to new 2024 highs, and while a breakout is a door opening to a new leg higher, there is often some profit taking, and with yesterday being a light day of trading, we could see some of that today - if the bears are brave enough to step in front of this bullish freight train.
Let's look at the C-fund's ETF counterpart, the SPY. It blasted through the old highs and the ascending resistance line. I have been fearing this kind of melt-up action as I am not fully invested, and if you're not willing to do some chasing, you miss out. Chasing isn't a great way to make money, but when it works, it works.
We should probably never expect the market to do the obvious, but with the contentious election growing nearer with little chance of us knowing who won once it's over, interest rate cuts likely to be smaller than we were thinking just a couple of weeks ago, a couple of wars going on with nuclear threats present, oil prices on the rise again, S&P valuations on the over valued side - this market is clearly climbing a wall of worry, but momentum is a thing, and it's happening right now. As I mentioned above, next week's seasonality calendar gets a lot more bearish, so again, it's tough to chase.
Admin Note: In the coming weeks we may be working on a server and software upgrade, starting with the forum, that could disrupt the website periodically. I've procrastinated long enough and it's time to get it done. The maintenance could take part or all of the website down at times, but it will not impact Premium Service email and text alerts. I'll keep you posted.
The S&P 500 (C-fund), like the SPY above, blasted through the old highs and the ascending resistance line yesterday, although the holiday action may not be trusted. It is a good week for stocks on the seasonality calendar, but because next week is a rough one, we could start seeing some profit taking as the week goes on.
DWCPF (S-fund) started the day off on the sluggish side but came on strong in the afternoon. We're seeing new multi-year highs but this is still almost 200 points below its all time high, so there's room before any double top issues. I'm surprised this hasn't been more volatile with yields moving steadily higher lately.
The I-fund: The EFA was up 0.29% yesterday, ACWX was up 0.05%, and the "ex USA ex China ex Hong Kong Index" was up 0.13%. This guessing game may go on through the end of the year as the TSP transitions into the new tracking index, which is supposed to eventually mimic the "ex USA ex China ex Hong Kong Index." You can see the TSP's eventual final daily price and return posted on our site each evening.
BND (Bonds / F-fund) was down slightly but closed well off its lows, but the bond market was closed yesterday and we'll get a better idea where yields and bond prices want to go today.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.html
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
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The bulls appear to be in full control as we see the charts breaking out to new highs. It was a light volume holiday trading day because of the bond market being closed, but a gain is a gain, and we'll see how investors react to this gain when everyone is back to work.
According to sentimenTrader.com's October seasonality chart, we are in a pocket of a positive seasonal bias this week, but that changes next week.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
Even with the bond market closed, the futures market indicated some minor strength in yields again and, with yields rising recently, the probability of an interest rate cut at the Fed's November meeting is down to 86%, and the chances of a 0.50% cut has gone to 0%. But that hasn't stopped investors yet from buying with both hand.
The TSP Fund Index charts down below show breakouts to new 2024 highs, and while a breakout is a door opening to a new leg higher, there is often some profit taking, and with yesterday being a light day of trading, we could see some of that today - if the bears are brave enough to step in front of this bullish freight train.
Let's look at the C-fund's ETF counterpart, the SPY. It blasted through the old highs and the ascending resistance line. I have been fearing this kind of melt-up action as I am not fully invested, and if you're not willing to do some chasing, you miss out. Chasing isn't a great way to make money, but when it works, it works.
We should probably never expect the market to do the obvious, but with the contentious election growing nearer with little chance of us knowing who won once it's over, interest rate cuts likely to be smaller than we were thinking just a couple of weeks ago, a couple of wars going on with nuclear threats present, oil prices on the rise again, S&P valuations on the over valued side - this market is clearly climbing a wall of worry, but momentum is a thing, and it's happening right now. As I mentioned above, next week's seasonality calendar gets a lot more bearish, so again, it's tough to chase.
Admin Note: In the coming weeks we may be working on a server and software upgrade, starting with the forum, that could disrupt the website periodically. I've procrastinated long enough and it's time to get it done. The maintenance could take part or all of the website down at times, but it will not impact Premium Service email and text alerts. I'll keep you posted.
The S&P 500 (C-fund), like the SPY above, blasted through the old highs and the ascending resistance line yesterday, although the holiday action may not be trusted. It is a good week for stocks on the seasonality calendar, but because next week is a rough one, we could start seeing some profit taking as the week goes on.
DWCPF (S-fund) started the day off on the sluggish side but came on strong in the afternoon. We're seeing new multi-year highs but this is still almost 200 points below its all time high, so there's room before any double top issues. I'm surprised this hasn't been more volatile with yields moving steadily higher lately.
The I-fund: The EFA was up 0.29% yesterday, ACWX was up 0.05%, and the "ex USA ex China ex Hong Kong Index" was up 0.13%. This guessing game may go on through the end of the year as the TSP transitions into the new tracking index, which is supposed to eventually mimic the "ex USA ex China ex Hong Kong Index." You can see the TSP's eventual final daily price and return posted on our site each evening.
BND (Bonds / F-fund) was down slightly but closed well off its lows, but the bond market was closed yesterday and we'll get a better idea where yields and bond prices want to go today.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.html
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
